بأقلامهمعربي وليد شقير : التحذير الدولي من تأجيل انتخابات لبنان يستنفر حكامه by admin 15 فبراير، 2022 written by admin 15 فبراير، 2022 25 “مجموعة الدعم” تناولت تفاصيل غير مسبوقة في بيانها وفتور في تحرك الماكينات الحزبية والترشيحات اندبندنت عربية \ وليد شقير كاتب صحافي @ChoucairWalid عوامل عديدة تجعل الصورة الانتخابية في لبنان ضبابية، على الرغم من تحديد السلطات المعنية 15 مايو (أيار) المقبل موعداً لاقتراع اللبنانيين من أجل اختيار 128 نائباً لدورة جديدة تستمر أربع سنوات. وهذه الضبابية لا تقتصر على التحالفات الانتخابية وعلى تركيب لوائح المرشحين بين القوى السياسية المختلفة، بل تشمل أيضاً تشكيكاً بإجراء هذه الانتخابات في موعدها وتطرح علامات استفهام حول استهداف بعض الأفرقاء تأجيلها بالتمديد للبرلمان الحالي. وهو إجراء اعتادت الطبقة السياسية على القيام به بحجج كثيرة في العقود الماضية. وأبرز هذه الحجج الوضع الأمني. الحرب الأهلية اللبنانية التي اندلعت في عام 1975 فرضت تعديل قانون الانتخاب للتمديد للبرلمان المنتخب في عام 1972 لتعذر إجراء عمليات الاقتراع في عام 1976 لأن لغة المدافع وخطوط التماس الطائفية في المدن وسائر المناطق كانت سائدة آنذاك، إلى أن جرت الانتخابات التشريعية العامة في عام 1992 بعد إنهاء الحرب بالتصديق على اتفاق الطائف بين البرلمانيين اللبنانيين الذين اجتمعوا في المملكة العربية السعودية برعاية سعودية ودولية وتحويل الإصلاحات التي تضمنها إلى دستور، أي إن البرلمان مدد لنفسه أربع دورات متتالية. وفي عام 2014 مدد البرلمان المنتخب عام 2009، الذي كانت ولايته استثنائياً خمس سنوات لنفسه، نصف ولاية مرتين، أي لولاية كاملة بحجة عدم التوصل لاتفاق على قانون انتخاب جديد كان الأفرقاء المسيحيون يصرون عليه لاعتبارهم القانون الساري المفعول، والقائم على النظام الأكثري مجحفاً بحق تمثيلهم النيابي. لكن، ما هي خلفيات الخشية من التمديد مجدداً للبرلمان الحالي والتحذيرات المحلية والدولية من تأجيل الانتخابات، فضلاً عن الإصرار العربي على إجراء العملية الانتخابية في موعدها؟ ضبابية الترشيحات والتحالفات الضبابية التي تحيط بالتحالفات الانتخابية قبل 3 أشهر من موعد الاقتراع، هي أحد العوامل التي تطرح السؤال عن إمكان تأجيل عمليات الاقتراع، بالتالي التمديد للبرلمان تجنباً لأي فراغ في السلطة التشريعية. فالعادة أن تبدأ الحركة الانتخابية في لبنان لجهة الحملات الإعلامية وزيارات المناطق من المرشحين في القوى الرئيسة قبل ستة أشهر فتجري خلالها الترشيحات تباعاً، وصولاً إلى الأسبوع الأخير قبل الاقتراع، لاستكمال عقد التحالفات. أما في الموسم الحالي فإن مهلة الترشح تنتهي في 15 مارس (آذار)، وعدد الذين تقدموا بترشيحاتهم رسمياً (يفرض القانون على المرشح دفع 10 ملايين ليرة لبنانية لوزارة الداخلية) ما زال قليلاً جداً. أما على الصعيد السياسي فإن الحزب الوحيد الذي أعلن عن عدد واسع من المرشحين في معظم الدوائر هو حزب “القوات اللبنانية”، فيما حدد بعض الأحزاب الأخرى أسماء مرشحيه من دون أن يعلن عنها رسمياً أو يتقدم بها إلى وزارة الداخلية. كما أن التحالفات التي أعلنت اقتصرت على تحالف حزب “القوات” مع “الحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي” في الدوائر التي يوجد فيها الحزبان من دون الإعلان عن تشكيل اللوائح. والأمر نفسه ينطبق على قرار “حزب الله” التحالف مع “التيار الوطني الحر” الذي يرأسه النائب جبران باسيل، ومع حركة “أمل”، فقد بذل الحزب جهوداً مع رئيس البرلمان نبيه بري كي يقبل بالتحالف مع “التيار الحر” على الرغم من خلافاته الكبيرة معه، فاشترط أن يقتصر الأمر على الدوائر التي للتيار وجود وازن فيها فقط من دون الدوائر التي تحتضن ثقلاً شعبياً للثنائي الشيعي. ولم تتضح صورة التحالفات التي ستعقدها مجموعات الحراك الشعبي والشبابي بعد نظراً إلى تعددها. وحتى استطلاعات الرأي التي تطلبها بعض القوى السياسية، من شركات أو متخصصة وتعتمد عليها الندوات التلفزيونية تأتي ناقصة، وفي معظم الأحيان يتم عرض نتائجها مع الإشارة إلى أنها “مشروطة” باتضاح التحالفات أكثر. الإرباك الذي خلفه عزوف الحريري النقطة المحورية التي تتعلق بالتحالفات تتعلق بموقف النواب الحاليين في تيار “المستقبل” وكتلته النيابية، أو بناشطين وسياسيين مقربين منه، إذا كانوا سيخوضون السباق بعد إعلان زعيمه رئيس الحكومة السابق سعد الحريري العزوف عن الترشح هو والتيار. فبعض النواب الحلفاء، غير المنتمين للتيار يريدون خوض المعركة الانتخابية من دون أن ينسبوا ترشيحهم إلى التيار، وبعضهم الآخر سيعتكف بناءً على لقرار الحريري، فيما ينتظر البعض الآخر اتضاح تحرك يقوم به رئيس الحكومة الأسبق فؤاد السنيورة لتشكيل مرجعية تدعم ترشيحات شخصيات توجهاتها قريبة من “الحريرية السياسية”، حتى لا يملأ الخصوم السياسيون، ولا سيما “حزب الله” الفراغ الذي تركه قرار الحريري. فالإرباك الذي خلفه قرار الحريري لا يقتصر على القيادة السنية وجمهور “المستقبل” الواسع، بل طاول الحلفاء والخصوم. فتحالف “القوات” و”الاشتراكي” ينتظر توجهات الموالين للحريري، ومزاج القاعدة الشعبية السنية وإذا كانت ستستنكف عن الاقتراع لغياب الزعيم الذي والته أم أن رد فعلها سيكون الاقتراع بكثافة لشخصيات معينة، للحيلولة دون استفادة الخصوم، وخصوصاً حلفاء “حزب الله” من أجل ملء الفراغ. والأمر يتوقف على مدى استجابة هذا الجمهور لإعلان رؤساء الحكومات السابقين ورئيس الحكومة الحالي نجيب ميقاتي بأن الطائفة لن تقاطع الانتخابات. فكل هذه الاحتمالات دفعت الأمين العام لـ”حزب الله” حسن نصر الله إلى القول في 8 فبراير (شباط)، “حتى الآن المشهد غير واضح، وعلينا أن ننتظر بعض الوقت كي يتبين المشهد، إلى أين ستذهب الأمور مع انسحاب تيار المستقبل من الانتخابات”. المخاوف من التأجيل بذريعة تعديل القانون كيف تنعكس هذه الأجواء على احتمال تأجيل الانتخابات وإمكان التمديد للبرلمان؟ حين حاول بعض قادة “المستقبل” وبعض العواصم الكبرى ثني الحريري عن قراره العزوف، استخدم حججاً عدة للإصرار على موقفه من بينها سؤاله: “وهل ستجري الانتخابات”؟ وكان ميالاً إلى الجواب السلبي. والمعروف أن من رجحوا هذا الاحتمال استندوا إلى قراءة تقول إن “حزب الله” لن يحتمل إمكان تغيير الأكثرية النيابية لغير صالحه جراء ضعف حلفائه في “التيار الحر” وتراجع شعبيتهم نتيجة الأزمة الاقتصادية المالية التي عصفت باللبنانيين وودائعهم في المصارف، والذين حملت الأكثرية منهم الفريق الرئاسي الحاكم وتحالفه مع “حزب الله” مسؤوليتها في الوسط المسيحي. وفيما يقول مرجع حكومي إن الأطراف كافة لا تريد الانتخابات، فإن أياً منها لا يجرؤ على اقتراح التأجيل، فإن ما زاد الغموض أن الفتور في إعلان أسماء المرشحين واكبه تأخر في تحريك الماكينات الانتخابية التي تعنى باستنفار الناخبين وتحضير حملاتهم، لكن “حزب الله” يجانب في كل تصريحات قادته أي إيحاء بأنه يؤيد تأجيل الانتخابات، بل يفاخر بأنه مطمئن إلى أنه سيحافظ على قوته في البرلمان ويشدد على إجراء الانتخابات في موعدها، إلا أن الهجوم على ما يسميه التدخل الأميركي فيها تحت عنوان دعم واشنطن لـ”مجموعات السفراء” ومنظمات المجتمع المدني ضد المقاومة، بات جزءاً من حملته الدعائية للإبقاء على جمهوره الشيعي مستنفراً إلى جانبه وحلفائه في حركة “أمل” و”التيار الحر”. وهو يفعل ذلك لتبديد الإيحاء في جميع المواقف المحذرة من تأجيل الانتخابات بأنه يقف وراء احتمال تأجيلها، بتركيز الحملة على الجانب الأميركي. وأسعف الحزب في محاولته إبعاد هذه التهمة عنه أن بعض القوى وجهتها إلى حليفه النائب باسيل والفريق الرئاسي لسببين: الأول تلويح نواب في “التيار الحر” بتقديم اقتراح قانون لتعديل قانون الانتخاب من أجل العودة إلى اعتماد دائرة انتخابية مخصصة لست مقاعد للمغتربين، التي كان البرلمان ألغاها لمصلحة اقتراع المغتربين لنواب دوائرهم الأصلية في لبنان. فاعتبر بعض الأفرقاء أن التقدم بهذا التعديل إذا حصل هدفه تشتيت أصوات المغتربين المرجح أن يقترعوا بأكثريتهم ضد مرشحي “التيار الحر”، من جهة، وتأخير الانتخابات بحجة تجهيز الترتيبات القانونية واللوجيستية لتطبيق تعديل من هذا النوع، لأن هذه الترتيبات تفرض تمديد مهل التقدم بطلبات الترشح من قبل المغتربين لوزارة الداخلية، ما يدفع إلى تأجيل الانتخابات من أجل احترام المهل القانونية. والتأجيل عادةً لا يحصل لشهر أو شهرين، بل لمدة سنة على الأقل. مصاريف اقتراع المغتربين ومعطيات الراعي أما السبب الثاني لتوجيه التهمة إلى “التيار الحر” والفريق الرئاسي فهو إعلان وزارة الخارجية المتكرر أن لا اعتمادات مالية في موازنتها وسط الشح المالي للخزينة، لمصاريف فتح مراكز الاقتراع في بلاد الاغتراب، حيث يفترض استئجار صالات لاستقبال المقترعين وتأمين موظفين يراقبون العملية. وهو أمر يعرقلها ويعرضها إما للطعن بشرعيتها في حال حصول نواقص كبيرة في تأمين مقومات الاقتراع في الاغتراب، أو يطرح إمكان التأجيل من هذا الباب أيضاً، إضافة إلى ارتفاع تكاليف تأمين عمليات الاقتراع عما كانت عليه، في ظل غياب الاعتمادات لدى الخارجية. ولذلك سعى الوزير عبد الله بوحبيب لدى هيئات مالية ومصرفية لجمع أموال لوزارته لهذا الغرض، فيما كانت دول غربية قدمت تبرعات سابقاً. استنفر هذان السببان المحتملان لعدم إجراء الانتخابات في موعدها المجتمع الدولي، ولا سيما الدول الغربية، فتكثفت تحذيرات السفراء من احتمال التأجيل استناداً إلى مخاوف مراجع منها البطريرك الماروني الكاردينال بشارة الراعي الذي حذر بوضوح في عظة له في 6 فبراير من “التلاعب بموعدها”. وقال النائب البطريركي المطران سمير مظلوم إن الراعي يستند إلى معلومات لديه عن نية البعض التأجيل، فيما أوضح مستشار البطريركية الوزير السابق سجعان قزي أن هناك معطيات لدى الراعي في هذا الصدد تناولها في لقائه السفيرة الأميركية دوروثي شيا في 11 فبراير. وأشار قزي إلى أن البعض يربط التأجيل بالصراع الأميركي – الإيراني وبنتائج محادثات فيينا. ويعتبر أن هدف الفريق الحاكم “منع حصول انتخابات رئاسية من قبل برلمان جديد، ومن عطل الرئاسة سابقاً (تحالف عون – حزب الله) يمكن أن يعطلها مجدداً”. “مجموعة الدعم الدولية” تناولت التفاصيل لكن اللافت كان البيان الذي أصدرته “مجموعة الدعم الدولية للبنان”، بعد صدور بيان عن مجلس الأمن في 4 فبراير. والمجموعة تضم الدول الخمس الدائمة العضوية في مجلس الأمن زائد ألمانيا وإيطاليا والاتحاد الأوروبي والجامعة العربية والأمم المتحدة، وتناول بيانها الشديد اللهجة شؤوناً تفصيلية متعلقة بالعملية الانتخابية في خطوة غير مسبوقة، إذ إضافة إلى نصه على ضرورة إجرائها في موعدها أوضح أنه “على الرغم من التزام المجتمع الدولي الراسخ بدعم العملية الانتخابية في لبنان وتقديمه دعماً مالياً ومادياً وتقنياً وسياسياً كبيراً لهذه العملية، فإن الانتخابات هي أولاً وقبل كل شيء حق للشعب اللبناني وجزء من تطلعاته، كما أنها مسؤولية سيادية يجب على السلطات اللبنانية الوفاء بها”. وحثّت “مجموعة الدعم “على الإسراع بالأعمال التحضيرية احتراماً للإطار القانوني النافذ والمهل الدستورية ذات الصلة”. كما دعت السلطات إلى “سرعة توفير جميع الموارد اللازمة وتكثيف الاستعدادات الفنية والإدارية لضمان سير العملية الانتخابية على نحو سليم وفي موعدها”. وذهبت مجموعة الدعم الدولية إلى حد حث “الجهات المعنية على تخصيص الموارد المالية اللازمة لإجراء الانتخابات داخل لبنان وفي الخارج، وتمكين وزارة الداخلية والبلديات ولجنة الإشراف على الانتخابات من تأدية وظائفها بالكامل وضمان تنظيم إجراءات تصويت المغتربين في الوقت المناسب”. وأوحت هذه الفقرة في البيان بأن الدول الأعضاء مطلعة على ما تردد عن اقتراح تعديل القانون في شأن اقتراع المغتربين والخشية من أن يكون ذريعة لتأجيل الانتخابات. ولم يفُت المجموعة أيضاً الإشارة إلى “الحفاظ على الهدوء بإجراء انتخابات سلمية” استباقاً لأي ذريعة أمنية للتأجيل. رد فعل بري وعون على التحذيرات التحذيرات المحلية والدولية من تأجيل الانتخابات بذريعة تعديل قانون الانتخاب، بدت موجهة إلى جهات عدة، لكن أي تعديل في البرلمان يتوقف بنسبة كبيرة على موقف رئيسه نبيه بري. وهو على الرغم من مراعاته “حزب الله” فإنه يرفض اقتراح الحليف الآخر للحزب النائب باسيل بالعودة إلى تخصيص 6 مقاعد للمغتربين، إلا أنه التقط إشارات البطريرك الراعي والدول الكبرى، فعاجل إلى التأكيد أنه لا يقبل تأجيل الانتخابات “ولو دقيقة واحدة”. وأصدرت كتلته النيابية (التنمية والتحرير) بياناً استغرب “حملة التهويل المنظمة والمشبوهة واللا مبررة التي يقوم بها بعض الأطراف والقوى السياسية ومنظمات المجتمع المدني ومن يقف وراءها في الداخل والخارج، باستهداف استحقاق الانتخابات النيابية بالتشويش على الرأي العام وعلى الناخبين اللبنانيين والإيحاء بوجود محاولات لتأجيل هذا الاستحقاق الوطني”. أما الرئيس عون فاعتبر بيان مجموعة الدعم الدولية موجهاً إلى أعلى سلطة فأصدر بياناً أكد فيه أنه “منعاً لأي التباس، متمسك في إجراء الانتخابات في موعدها المحدد في 15 مايو”. وأضاف: “بالنسبة إلى تذليل الصعوبات المالية لتوفير الاعتمادات اللازمة لإجراء هذه الانتخابات، فإن مجلس الوزراء سوف يدرس طلب وزارة الداخلية لاتخاذ التدابير اللازمة والاعتمادات المطلوبة لذلك، في جلسته المقررة الثلاثاء المقبل (15 فبراير)”. وبدا أن الجميع يتبرأ من أي توجه للتأجيل، خصوصاً أن بعض الدول الكبرى كانت لمحت إلى أن بعض المسؤولين اللبنانيين قد يتعرضون لعقوبات غربية في حال حصول ذلك. المزيد عن: لبنان \ الأزمة اللبنانية \ الانتخابات اللبنانية \ حزب الله \ سعد الحريري \ تيار المستقبل \ حزب القوات اللبنانية \ التيار الوطني الحر 231 comments 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail admin previous post Nova Scotia begins three-phase plan to lift COVID-19 restrictions next post راشد الغنوشي في عين العاصفة You may also like عبدالله الحايك يكتب عن: فهم كيفية استخدام “الحرس... 5 مايو، 2024 جون بولتون يكتب عن: ماذا بعد بين إيران... 5 مايو، 2024 حازم صاغية يكتب عن: أميركا ــ إسرائيل وبعض... 29 أبريل، 2024 غسان شربل يكتب عن: كيسنجر يطارد بلينكن 29 أبريل، 2024 رضوان السيد يكتب عن: ثقافة المراجعة وإمكانيات استقبال... 29 أبريل، 2024 قصة الطائرة الفرنسية المخطوفة على يد جزائري عام... 29 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