بأقلامهمعربي استطلاعات الرأي تعطي الأفضلية للإصلاحيين في العراق، لكنهم قد يخسرون الأصوات المائلة لصالحهم by admin 20 أغسطس، 2021 written by admin 20 أغسطس، 2021 61 Washingtoni nstitute \ إريك غوستافسون – عمر النداوي – محمد خليل إريك ك. غوستافسون هو المؤسس والمدير التنفيذي لـ”مركز تمكين السلام في العراق” الذي يسعى إلى تحقيق السلام والتطور في العراق. وهو من قدامى محاربي الجيش الأمريكي الذين شاركوا في حرب الخليج عام 1991 ومحللٌ للشؤون العراقية يركز على حقوق الإنسان والقضايا الإنسانية. غوستافسون هو مساهم في منتدى فكرة. عمر النداوي، هو محلل في الشئون العراقية ومقيم في العاصمة الامريكية واشنطن. وهو محاضر زائر في التاريخ في معهد الخدمة .الخارجية. النداوي هو مساهم في منتدى فكرة محمد خليل هو ممثل “مركز تمكين السلام” في دولة العراق. يتمتع بخبرة عشرين سنة تقريبًا في المجتمع المدني والتنمية والحكم وحقوق الإنسان وبناء الديمقراطية في العراق والشرق الأوسط. خليل هو مساهم في منتدى فكرة. متوفر أيضًا باللغات: English تُظهر استطلاعات الرأي قبل الانتخابات المقبلة في العراق أن حركة احتجاجات “تشرين” تواجه بعض التحديات التي تتمثل في ترجمة الدعم الشعبي إلى مكاسب انتخابية، ويرجع ذلك الى القلق المنتشر حول شرعية العملية الانتخابية والعنف السياسي. يصادف في شهر تشرين الأول/أكتوبر من هذا العام وقوع الذكرى السنوية الثانية لحراك “تشرين” الاحتجاجي العراقي الذي هزّ أركان السلطة السياسية في البلاد وأسقط حكومة عادل عبد المهدي وأجبر بغداد على تحديد موعد لانتخابات نيابية مبكرة. وشهر تشرين الأول/أكتوبر هو أيضًا الشهر المقرر حاليًا لإجراء تلك الانتخابات. يطالب الحراك ومناصروه بإصلاحات كاملة لكافة الأجهزة من أجل مكافحة الفساد الذي تجيزه الدولة، ومعالجة معدلات البطالة المتزايدة –خصوصًا بين فئة الشباب التي تشكل الأكثرية في البلاد- والنقص المستمر في الخدمات الأساسية. وأضيفت مسألتا العدالة والمحاسبة على قائمة المطالب حين استخدمت القوات الحكومية والميليشيات الموالية لإيران القوة المفرطة والقاتلة للرد على التظاهرات التي كانت سلمية بأغلبها، فقتلت المئات وجرحت الآلاف. والسؤال الذي يُطرح اليوم هو ما إذا كان العراقيون الذين خرجوا إلى شوارع بغداد ومدن الجنوب منذ قرابة العامين سيخرجون بالأعداد الكبيرة نفسها يوم الانتخابات المقررة حاليًا في 10 تشرين الأول/أكتوبر. بحسب استطلاع للرأي العام أجراه “مركز تمكين السلام في العراق” (أيبك) في كل أنحاء البلاد، يتبين أن المرشحين الذين ينالون تأييد المتظاهرين قد يتمتعون بأفضلية كبيرة على منافسيهم. أجري الاستطلاع خلال شهر حزيران/يونيو 2021 أي بعد شهر على اغتيال الناشط البارز إيهاب الوزني وبعد أسابيع قليلة على المحاولة الفاشلة التي قامت بها الحكومة لاعتقال زعيم الميليشيا قاسم مصلح الذي يُشتبه بمسؤوليته عن الجريمة. استهدف “مركز تمكين السلام” بهذا الاستطلاع الهاتفي عينةً تمثيلية من 1068 ناخبًا عراقيًا مؤهلاً للتصويت من المحافظات العراقية الثمانية عشرة، بهامش خطأ يبلغ ثلاثة في المائة ومستوى ثقة يبلغ 95 في المائة. تبيّن أن نسبةً كبيرة من المستطلَعين -تتجاوز الثلث تقريبًا- لا تنوي المشاركة في الانتخابات المقبلة. وأحد الأسباب الممكنة لهذا القرار هو أن الثقة في شرعية الانتخابات كوسيلة للتمثيل السياسي لا تزال متدنية. وما يعزز هذا الارتياب هو “المخالفات الخطيرة” التي شابت الانتخابات الأخيرة. فبالعودة إلى الماضي، أعربت أغلبية واضحة من المستطلَعين فاقت الستين في المائة عن اعتقادها بأن انتخابات 2018 لم تعكس إرادة الشعب. وعلى هذا النحو، لم يتوقع معظم الناخبين أن تتحلى الانتخابات المقبلة بمصداقية أكبر من سابقتها. فقد اعتبر 23.3 في المائة فقط من المشاركين في الاستطلاع أن الانتخابات المقبلة ستكون “حرة وعادلة” أو “حرة وعادلة نوعًا ما”، ويأتي هذا المستوى المرتفع من قلة الثقة لدى الناخبين على الرغم من إقرار مجلس النواب قانون انتخابي جديد يقوي من فرص المرشحين الفرديين – وتحديدًا المستقلين- بإنشاء دوائر انتخابية أصغر (مجموعها 83 دائرة) وجعل الأصوات غير قابلة للنقل. لعل المشكلة لا تكمن في القانون بحد ذاته، فهو لبّى مطلبًا جوهريًا من مطالب الحراك، بل في غياب ثقة الناخبين بقدرة الحكومة على إيجاد بيئة آمنة تصبح فيها الانتخابات الحرة والعادلة ممكنة. ويأخذ هذا التقدير في الحسبان الاغتيالات التي طالت شخصيات بارزة أمثال إيهاب الوزني، والقدرة المستمرة على الإفلات من العقاب التي تسمح باستمرار هذه الجرائم. ونظرًا إلى البيئة الأمنية، من الممكن أن يكون المرشحون المستقلون بشكل خاص عرضةً للخطر، وهم الذين يكتسبون الزخم مع اقتراب موعد الانتخابات. وإذا لقوا مصرعهم قبل الأوان أو تم ترهيبهم للانسحاب، يحصل المرشح الذي يليهم من حيث عدد الأصوات على مقعدهم. وهذا يعطي الجهات المسيئة –وتحديدًا الميليشيات أمثال “كتائب حزب الله” و”عصائب أهل الحق”- حوافز سيئة لاستخدام العنف السياسي. عند سؤال العراقيين عن الحاجز الأكبر الذي يحول دون الإدلاء بأصواتهم في تشرين الأول/أكتوبر، شكّك ستة من أصل عشرة في فعالية التصويت، وبرّر 30.6 في المائة منهم السبب بالاحتيال وقال 15.9 في المائة إنهم لا يؤيدون أيًا من المرشحين، في حين قال 15 في المائة آخرون إن صوتهم لن يحدث أي فارق. بالرغم من هذا التضارب المثبت في المواقف حيال التصويت، أبدى المشاركون الذين ينوون التصويت تفضيلاً قويًا للمرشحين الإصلاحيين الذين لا ينتمون إلى أيٍّ من الأحزاب التقليدية. وقال واحدٌ من كل أربعة عراقيين مشمولين بالاستطلاع إنه سيصوت للمرشحين الذين يمثّلون المتظاهرين وحراك “تشرين” بشكل عام. ويعكس هذا الأمر تفوقًا يكمن إثباته على مرشحي أحزاب السلطة الذين حصلوا على دعم 4.2 في المائة من المستطلَعين، وأيضًا على المرشحين المدعومين من رئيس الوزراء الحالي مصطفى الكاظمي والذين بلغت نسبة دعمهم 2.5 في المائة. لكن 30.7 في المائة من المستطلَعين أفادوا أنهم لم يحسموا أمرهم فيما صرّح 34.1 في المائة أنهم لا ينوون التصويت. مع ذلك، ما زال يتوفر متّسعٌ من الوقت ليتغير هذا الوضع. عند السؤال عن النتيجة المتوقعة لانتخابات تشرين الأول/أكتوبر، أجاب 32.9 في المائة من المشاركين أنهم يتوقعون حصول المرشحين عن أحزاب السلطة والميليشيات التابعة لها على العدد الأكبر من الأصوات وبالتالي الفوز بأكثرية المقاعد في مجلس النواب. وعند طرح السؤال نفسه بخصوص النتيجة في محافظات المشاركين، ارتفعت هذه النسبة إلى 38.3 في المائة. في المقابل، قال 13.3 في المائة إنهم يعتقدون أن المرشحين عن حراك “تشرين” سيفوزون بالعدد الأكبر من المقاعد على مستوى البلاد ككل. لكن إذا صحّت معدلات الإقبال والتفضيلات المتوقعة في هذا الاستطلاع، من الممكن أن يفوز مرشحو الحراك بأكثر من 38 في المائة من الأصوات الفعلية المدلى بها، وهذا يعني الفوز بما يصل إلى 120 مقعدًا من المقاعد البالغة 329 في مجلس النواب العراقي. لكن هذا السيناريو المحتمل لا يخلو من المحاذير. فأولاً، لم تجمع الأحزاب السياسية التي تم تأسيسها حديثًا لتمثيل الحراك سوى 99 مرشحًا بالإجمال، 44 مرشحًا منهم عن حركة “امتداد”، و35 عن “تجمّع الفاو زاخو” (الذي سُمّي تيمّنًا بأسماء البلدات العراقية في أقصى الشمال والجنوب)، و20 عن حركة “نازل آخد حقي”. وبرأي الناشطين العراقيين الذين يراقبون الحملات الانتخابية، سيبقى مجموع المرشحين دون المائتين حتى مع إضافة مرشحي “تشرين” الذين سيترشحون بشكل فردي أو بدعمٍ من أحزاب تقليدية معتدلة. بالتالي، من أصل المرشحين الـ3243 المسجلين رسميًا لدى المفوضية العليا المستقلة للانتخابات في العراق، سيتنافس أقل من 200 منهم باسم حراك “تشرين”. ثانيًا، لا يتوزع مرشحو “تشرين” بالتساوي على الدوائر الانتخابية الثلاثة والثمانين. بذلك ستشهد دوائر عديدة تنافسَ مرشحَين أو أكثر من “تشرين” على الناخبين نفسهم، وهذا سيقسم أصوات “تشرين” ويؤدي بالتالي إلى خسائر. لذلك فإن الفوز بأي عددٍ يقارب نصف المقاعد الـ120 سيكون إنجازًا مبهرًا وبعيد الاحتمال بشكل كبير. مع ذلك، يُظهر الاستطلاع تأييدًا شعبيًا كبيرًا لحراك “تشرين” ومطالبه، ويبدو الكثير من الناخبين مستعدين للتصويت بالثقة لمرشحي الحراك. من هنا، إذا كان الإقبال كبيرًا وكانت الانتخابات فعلاً حرة وعادلة –بدون المخالفات المرتكبة في الانتخابات السابقة- ستكون لدى “تشرين” فرصة بالحصول على موطئ قدم داخل مجلس النواب، وهو ما سيتيح للحراك المطالبة بالإصلاحات من داخل البرلمان مع مواصلة الضغط الشعبي القوي في الشارع. ستكون نسبة إقبال الناخبين عنصرًا حاسمًا في تحديد شكل البرلمان المقبل ومسار الحكم في العراق. ومع أن أولئك الذين يدعون إلى مقاطعة الانتخابات يطرحون حججًا أخلاقية مفهومة، خصوصًا تلك المتعلقة بفشل الحكومة في إيجاد بيئة انتخابية آمنة وعادلة للمرشحين والناشطين المطالبين بالإصلاح، إلا أنهم قد يضيعون فرصةً حقيقية لاكتساب قوة سياسية في وقتٍ يحظى فيه الحراك بتأييد شعبي كبير. في أي انتخابات، يخسر الجميع مائة في المائة من الأصوات التي لا يُدلى بها. لذلك إذا امتنع مناصرو “تشرين” عن التصويت يوم الانتخابات، فقد يومّنون لأحزاب السلطة فوزًا سهلاً، وهو ما سيشكل نكسة كبيرة للإصلاحات ويمهّد الطريق أمام تجدد الاشتباكات بين أبناء العراق المحرومين والطبقة السياسية المتحجرة والفاسدة. وإن حصل ذلك، يمكن التوقع أن تلجأ القوى المدافعة عن الوضع القائم إلى استخدام القوة المفرطة لسحق الحراك وترسيخ حكم النخبة عبر نظام المحاصصة –وهو النظام العرقي الطائفي لتقاسم السلطة الذي وصَم السياسة العراقية منذ عام 2003- مع أنها لن تكون المرة الأولى التي تواجه فيها حركة إصلاحية بالعنف في العراق وتنجح مع ذلك في إحداث التغيير. ستُنشر النتائج الكاملة لاستطلاع “مركز تمكين السلام في العراق” والأبحاث المتعلقة به خلال شهر أيلول/سبتمبر ضمن تقرير عن حراك “تشرين” العراقي وحظوظه بالسلطة. 236 comments 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail admin previous post عودة “إمارة أفغانستان الإسلامية”: الحالة الجهادية الراهنة next post العراقيون يخشون أن يأتي دورهم بعد أفغانستان You may also like رضوان السيد يكتب عن: وقف النار في الجنوب... 24 نوفمبر، 2024 مايكل آيزنشتات يكتب عن: مع تراجع قدرتها على... 21 نوفمبر، 2024 ما يكشفه مجلس بلدية نينوى عن الصراع الإيراني... 21 نوفمبر، 2024 غسان شربل يكتب عن: عودة هوكستين… وعودة الدولة 19 نوفمبر، 2024 حازم صاغية يكتب عن: حين ينهار كلّ شيء... 19 نوفمبر، 2024 رضوان السيد يكتب عن: ماذا جرى في «المدينة... 15 نوفمبر، 2024 عبد الرحمن الراشد يكتب عن: ترمب ومشروع تغيير... 15 نوفمبر، 2024 منير الربيع يكتب عن..لبنان: معركة الـ1701 أم 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