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التي تكشّفت هي أن الاتفاق النووي المتجدد مع إيران، والرئيس جو بايدن، يحظيان الآن بدعم الأغلبية الضيقة على الأقل. كما أن الصراع الأخير في غزة لم يقلل من تأييد التطبيع مع إسرائيل، البالغة نسبته 40 في المائة تقريبًا. أضف إلى ذلك أن التعاطف مع “التفسير المعتدل للإسلام” آخذ في الازدياد، في حين أن تأييد جماعة “الإخوان المسلمين” آخذٌ في التناقص. غير أن الاستنتاج الحاسم الأول الذي توصلت إليه الاستطلاعات هو ببساطةٍ أن الناس مستعدّين للتعبير عن رأيهم، حتى في الأمور الجدلية، أقلّه في الجلسات الخصوصية. إذًا، وفي تناقض حاد مع معظم أقاويل النخبة والرسائل الإعلامية الرسمية في تلك الدول الخليجية العربية، يَعتبر أكثر من 60 في المائة من الشعب في كل دولة أن إعادة تفعيل الاتفاق النووي مع إيران سيؤثّر إيجابيًا على المنطقة. لكن الملحوظ هنا هو أن رأيهم هذا لا يعود إلى كونهم يرون العلاقات الجيدة مع إيران مهمةً لبلدهم، وهو موقف عشرة في المائة فقط من المواطنين في كلٍّ من السعودية والإمارات. في حين سُجّلت النسبة نفسها بين سُنّة البحرين، إلا أنها ارتفعت بين الغالبية الشيعية في الجزيرة البحرينية إلى 37 في المائة. لكن بشكل عام، وفي ما يتعلق بمجموعة واسعة من القضايا الجدلية، لم تُلحظ سوى اختلافات بسيطة في المواقف بين السُنة والشيعة في الدول الثلاث – وهذه نتيجة غير متوقعة تبشّر بالخير للاستقرار الاجتماعي والسياسي. وما لم يكن متوقعًا أيضًا هو الاستنتاج أن النزاع المسلح الذي نشب في منتصف أيار/مايو بين إسرائيل و”حماس” لم يترك تأثيرًا يُذكر على المواقف تجاه أيٍّ من الطرفين. ففي استطلاع سابق أُجري في تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر 2020، كانت نسبة 40 في المائة تقريبًا في كل دولة تؤيد “اتفاقيات أبراهام” مع إسرائيل، وكانت نسبة مماثلة تقريبًا تتقبّل “الاتصالات التجارية أو الرياضية مع الإسرائيليين”. وبالكاد تغيّرت هذه النِّسب في هذا الاستطلاع الأخير الذي أُجري بعد أسابيع قليلة على انتهاء العدوان في غزة. وفي كلٍّ من السعودية والإمارات، أعرب أقل من ربع المستطلَعين عن رأي إيجابي “نوعًا ما” تجاه “حماس” اليوم. لكن هذه النسبة ترتفع، لأسباب مجهولة، إلى 44 في المائة في البحرين، حيث يقول 53 في المائة أيضًا إن “إطلاق “حماس” للقذائف والصواريخ على إسرائيل” سيكون له تأثير إيجابي “نوعًا ما” على الأقل على المنطقة ككل. بالنسبة إلى الموقف من الولايات المتحدة، يرى ما يزيد عن النصف في الدول الثلاثة أن التغيير من ترامب إلى بايدن مناسبٌ للشرق الأوسط، في تناقض صارخ آخر مع النُخب المحلية المسيطرة. وكما في الاستطلاعات السابقة، يعتبر أقل من النصف بقليل أن العلاقات الجيدة مع واشنطن مهمة، وهي نسبة تعادل تقريبًا النظرة إلى الصين خلال السنوات الأخيرة، وتزيد بعض الشيء عن روسيا. على وجه التحديد، عندما طُلب من المستطلَعين اختيار أهم اثنتين من أولويات السياسة الأمريكية في منطقتهم، انقسمت الإجابات بالتساوي بين الخيارات الأربعة المطروحة. وقد اختار حوالي ربعهم “الدفع باتجاه حل للصراع الفلسطيني الإسرائيلي”، كخيارهم الأول، في حين اختارت نسبٌ متساوية تقريبًا أهدافًا أخرى هي: احتواء إيران وإنهاء الحروب في اليمن وليبيا أو –وهذا مفاجئ أكثر- “تعزيز حقوق الإنسان والديمقراطية”. وبالمثل، توافق نسبة ملحوظة تبلغ ثلاثة أرباع أو أكثر من المستطلَعين في كل دولة على الطرح التالي: “في الوقت الحاضر، الإصلاح السياسي والاقتصادي الداخلي أهمّ لبلادنا من أي قضية متعلقة بالسياسة الخارجية، لذا يجب أن نبتعد عن أي حروب خارج حدودنا”. لكن الرغبة في الإصلاح الداخلي لا تشمل الاحتجاج الشعبي. فقد وافق ما يناهز الثلاثة أرباع من المستطلَعين في الدول الثلاثة على الطرح القائل: “من الجيد أننا لا نشهد تظاهرات ضد الفساد كتلك التي نشهدها مؤخرًا في لبنان والعراق وبعض المناطق الأخرى”. في ما يتعلق بالقضايا الداخلية المتعلقة بالإسلام السياسي والتي تُعتبر أكثر حساسية، تُظهر البيانات اتجاهًا معتدلًا مماثلًا على مر الوقت. فقد كشفت السنوات السبع الماضية عن ارتفاع بطيء، ولكن ثابت في نِسب المؤيدين للتأكيد التالي: “يجب أن نصغي إلى الأشخاص بيننا الذين يريدون تفسير الإسلام بطريقة أكثر اعتدالًا وحداثة وتسامحًا”. وبلغت هذه النسب بالترتيب التصاعدي: 33 في المائة في الإمارات، و39 في المائة في السعودية، ووصلت في البحرين إلى مستوى عظيم بلغ 51 في المائة. في المقابل، شهدت السنوات الأخيرة انخفاضًا تدريجيًا في شعبية جماعة “الإخوان المسلمين” في الدول الثلاثة كلها، حتى أصبحت اليوم نسبة دعمهم تقتصر على 14 في المائة في السعودية، علمًا بأنها أقل في البحرين وتبلغ تسعة في المائة. لكن الجماعة حافظت على درجة أكبر من التعاطف الشعبي في الإمارات حيث بلغت نسبته 18 في المائة، مع أنها تُعتبر خارجة عن القانون في البلاد. أما الخبر السار الأخير، من ناحية الأصدقاء والخصوم المشتركين، فيتعلق بانطباعات دول الخليج العربية عن الدول العربية الأخرى. تقول الأكثرية الكبرى في الدول الثلاثة من مجلس التعاون الخليجي التي شملها الاستطلاع إنها تقدّر العلاقات الجيدة مع مصر والأردن. وتقول الشيء نفسه عن العراق، بالرغم من وجود الحكم بيد الأغلبية الشيعية وعلاقات العراق الوثيقة بإيران. وهذه نقطة مهمة تستحق المناقشة، غداة زيارة رئيس الوزراء العراقي الكاظمي إلى واشنطن. أما الاختلاف الواضح هنا فهو سوريا: إذ يرغب اليوم ربع السعوديين والإماراتيين والبحرينيين فقط في إقامة علاقات جيدة معها، ربما بسبب كرههم الطويل لنظام الأسد. في العموم، ترسم هذه المعطيات الإحصائية صورة مخالفة جدًا للمتوقع -إنما مقنعة- عن تقبّل شعوب الخليج العربي للسياسات الأمريكية الرئيسية المتعلقة بإسرائيل وإيران وجيرانهم العرب، وعن اعتدالهم المتزايد في القضايا الإسلامية، وعن استبعاد إمكانية أن يثوروا ضد حكامهم. ومع أن الأنظمة في تلك الدول ليست ديمقراطية، إلا أن الرأي العام مهمٌّ لتحديد المعايير العريضة للعمل الحكومي. لذلك تعتبر تبعات ذلك على الاستقرار والشراكة مع الولايات المتحدة وأصدقائها الآخرين في المنطقة مهمةً وأقله مشجّعة إلى حدٍّ ما. ملاحظة حول المنهجية: تضمّن كل واحد من هذه الاستطلاعات الثلاثة مقابلات شخصية مع عينة حقيقية وطنية عشوائية من المواطنين (باستثناء المغتربين الكثُر، ومعظمهم من العمّال الأجانب)، ذكورًا وإناثًا، الذين تزيد أعمارهم عن 18 عامًا. تم اختيار العينات باستخدام أساليب الأرجحية الجغرافية المعيارية، وأجريت المقابلات باللغة العربية في المنازل الخاصة من قبل مهنيين محليين من ذوي الخبرة. كما خضعت ترجمة الاستطلاع الإنكليزي الأصلي للمراجعة على يد ناطقين أصليين باللغة، وخضعت لاختبار مسبق للتحقق من وضوحها ودقتها. وطوال مدة العملية، أُعطيت ضمانات صارمة بالسرية وتم الإشراف على الجودة. التفاصيل الإضافية عن المنهجية متاحة عند الطلب. 318 comments 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail admin previous post هل تجري إسبانيا مباحثات سرية لتجاوز أزمتها مع المغرب؟ next post جذور الأزمة السياسية الحالية في تونس You may also like عبد الرحمن الراشد في “الشرق الأوسط”: في ذكرى... 4 أغسطس، 2026 غسان شربل في “الشرق 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