THE Washington institute / ديفيد شينكر
ديفيد شينكر هو زميل أوفزين ومدير برنامج السياسة العربية في معهد واشنطن.
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هناك اهتمام من قبل فرنسا وألمانيا لتأمين عقود إعادة إعمار مرفأ بيروت. وبغض النظر عمن ينتهي به المطاف في قيادة جهود إعادة الإعمار، يجب على واشنطن أن تبقى على علم بكل ما يستجد من تطورات لضمان تطبيق المتطلبات الدولية للإصلاح والمراقبة – ولمنع الصين من استغلال الصعوبات التي تواجهها لبنان.
في 8 نيسان/أبريل، عرض وفدٌ يضم ممثلين عن شركات ألمانية مبادرة إلى الحكومة اللبنانية تشمل تعهداً لضمان إعادة إعمار مرفأ بيروت. وتم ذكر الاقتراح من قبل دبلوماسيين ألمان قبل ذلك التاريخ بأيام، أشاروا فيه إلى أن المبادرة ستتوقف على قيام لبنان بتشكيل حكومة جديدة وتنفيذ إصلاحات. إنّ إعادة بناء المرفأ أمر بالغ الأهمية لتعافي الدولة – فقد كان تدميره في آب/أغسطس الماضي بمثابة رصاصة الرحمة التي قضت على الاقتصاد اللبناني المترنح بالفعل، مما أدى إلى انخفاض كبير في قيمة العملة المحلية، وتضخم مفرط، وارتفاع في معدلات البطالة. وتبع ذلك أيضاً نقص كبير في السلع الاستهلاكية التي تشتد الحاجة إليها، حيث كان الموقع المدمَّر نقطة دخول 80 في المائة من واردات الدولة.
وعلى الرغم من أنه من غير المرجح أن يؤدي الإعلان الألماني إلى تحفيز النخب السياسية التعساء في لبنان إلى التحرك، إلا أنه قد يثير غضب فرنسا، التي تطمح أيضاً إلى إعادة بناء المرفأ. فخلال زيارة الرئيس إيمانويل ماكرون لبيروت بعد وقت قصير من حدوث الانفجار، أفادت بعض التقارير أنه أعرب عن رغبته في القيام بذلك. ورافقه في زيارته رودولف سعادة، رئيس مجلس إدارة شركة الشحن والخدمات اللوجستية الرائدة “مجموعة سي إم ايه – سي جي أم” CMA CGM Group)). وفي أعقاب الزيارة كتب سعادة في تغريدة نشرها على موقع تويتر، “تستطيع فرنسا ولبنان الاعتماد على المجموعة للاستجابة لحالة الطوارئ والعمل على إعادة إعمار بيروت. إن التزامنا كامل”.
ولا شكّ أنّ باريس مهتمّة بحشد الشركات الفرنسية لتأمين عقود إعادة إعمار المرفأ – ولكن فقط إذا تولّت جهة أخرى دفع التكاليف. ولم تقدّم الحكومة الفرنسية أيّ مؤشّر على نيّتها تمويل المشروع. وعلى الرغم من مشاركتها بشكل كبير في سياسات مستعمرتها السابقة، إلّا أن ما يثير الاستغراب هو عدم تقديم باريس سوى القليل من المساعدة المالية للبنان. على سبيل المثال، وفقاً لـ “منظمة التعاون الاقتصادي والتنمية”، قدمت فرنسا للبنان 45 مليون دولار فقط من تمويل التنمية الثنائية و 17 مليون دولار من المساعدات العسكرية في عام 2018. وفي المقابل، قدمت ألمانيا المزيد من المساعدات الثنائية في ذلك العام – 67 مليون دولار – على الرغم من عدم كونها جهة فاعلة تقليدية في لبنان.
ويقيناً أن الدولتين تقدمان أيضاً مساهمات إضافية من خلال أموال مساعدات “الاتحاد الأوروبي”. وقد اقترحت ألمانيا تمويل المشروع – بتكلفة تتراوح بين 2.36 و 3.54 مليار دولار – من خلال “بنك الاستثمار الأوروبي”، مما يعني مشاركة دول “الاتحاد الأوروبي” الأخرى، بما فيها فرنسا.
وبغض النظر عن الجهة التي ينتهي بها الأمر بتمويل المشروع، فإن الخبر السار هو أن باريس وبرلين أوضحتا أن المضي قدماً في الخطة و / أو دعم خطة إنقاذ أوسع نطاقاً من “صندوق النقد الدولي” بمليارات الدولارات سيتطلب من لبنان إجراء إصلاحات جادة والحد من الفساد المستشري. وهذه مهمة صعبة بالطبع: فلبنان يحتل المرتبة 149 من بين 180 دولة في “مؤشر مدركات الفساد لمنظمة الشفافية الدولية”، ولم يتبنَّ قادته الإصلاح قط. وفي الواقع، إن معظم النخب – خاصة تلك التي تمثّل ميليشيا «حزب الله» المدعومة من إيران – تستفيد بشكل كبير من النظام الحالي.
وبالتوازي مع هذه المتطلبات المرهقة على بيروت، وضعت جهات فاعلة أجنبية أخرى ربما تتمتع بنفوذ مالي أكبر من فرنسا وألمانيا شروطها الأساسية. ففي كانون الأول/ديسمبر، أوضح “البنك الدولي” ما هي الإصلاحات التي من الضروري أن تقوم بيروت بتنفيذها قبل إعادة بناء المرفأ، مثل إنشاء إطار مؤسسي جديد لقطاع الموانئ، وسن تشريعات جديدة ذات صلة، وإعادة تنظيم إدارة الجمارك، وضمان عملية مناقصة تنافسية، واستخدام مشغّلي محطات خاصة. كما للولايات المتحدة شرط لا غنى عنه أيضاً – وهو أن توافق بيروت مسبقاً على قيام مراقبة مستقلة للمرفأ الجديد من أجل ضمان ألا يصبح مرة أخرى أحد أصول «حزب الله» لتهريب المواد والأفراد العسكريين. قد لا تصر باريس وبرلين على هذه المراقبة المسبقة، ولكن قد يكون لواشنطن المزيد من التأثير بالنظر إلى مساهماتها السنوية الأكبر – على سبيل المثال، في عام 2018، قدمت لبيروت 118 مليون دولار كمساعدات إنمائية و 128 مليون دولار كمساعدات أمنية، بالإضافة إلى مساهمات كبيرة إلى “برنامج الغذاء العالمي” التابع للأمم المتحدة والمؤسسات الأخرى العاملة في لبنان.
وهناك جانب إيجابي آخر محتمل وهو أنّ أيّ مشاركة فرنسية ألمانية في المشروع ستمنع على الأرجح الصين – الشريك المفضل لـ «حزب الله» – من توسيع شبكة موانئها العالمية أو ما يُعرف بـ استراتيجية «خيط اللؤلؤ». ونظراً لاستهداف بكين للدول الضعيفة من أجل الإيقاع بها في فخّ ديون الاستثمار، لا شكّ في أنّها تنظر إلى لبنان المعرّض للخطر باعتباره خياراً جذّاباً.
وفي الوقت الحالي، تُعتبر المقترحات الفرنسية والألمانية عرضاً جانبياً للانهيار البطيء للبنان، لكن واقع مشاركة كلا الحكومتين في التزام واشنطن الواضح بربط المساعدة غير الإنسانية بالإصلاح يجب أن يُنظر إليه على أنه فرصة سياسية للولايات المتحدة. وفي النهاية، هناك مجال واسع للتعاون الأوروبي بشأن تمويل المرفأ وإعادة بنائه، وعلى واشنطن العمل عن كثب مع كل دولة لضمان أن يتم تنسيق المشروع – عندما ومتى يتم المضي قدماً فيه – بشكل متعدد الأطراف ويكون هناك التزام بمبدأ الإصلاح قبل إعادة الإعمار. وفي المقابل، من شأن نفور بكين من الشفافية و[سياستها] المتضاربة تجاه «حزب الله» أن يجعلا دوراً صينياً في إعادة البناء النتيجة الأسوأ لأوروبا والولايات المتحدة ولبنان على حدٍ سواء.
ديفيد شينكر هو زميل أقدم في معهد واشنطن. وشغل منصب مساعد وزير الخارجية الأمريكية لشؤون الشرق الأدنى في الفترة 2019-2021.
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Though the appeal of sports apparel has ebbed and flowed over
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Sports apparel has actually located a permanent area in sports footwear, health and fitness center bags and also sporting activities breast supports.
These garments compose the perfect enhancement to the ideal exercise program and enrich
performance. The majority of the sporting activities clothing being made use
of through sportspersons nowadays are actually specifically generated to meet
details requirements of the sport they intend to participate in.
A traditional sporting activities garment would have trousers,
pants, a tshirt and a tie. Typically tee shirts along with
company logos are liked and also most sports aficionados choose to have a
tee shirt along with their favored sporting activities crew.
Trousers are additionally a staple clothes thing and very most sports aficionados
prefer to possess at least pair of sets of trousers.
A set of trousers should have the ability to fulfill
all the active sporting activities activities. The trouser
size need to be such that comfort is actually not compromised
while playing sports.
Previously the trouser legs were spandex or tights, which assisted to keep
dampness away, but the mid-twentieth century found the growth of
man-made fibres that came to be the product of choice
for slacks. The textile of selection at this moment
was actually nylon material, which had the ability to maintain warmth
without taking in humidity, concurrently facilitating motion.
Putting on woollen trousers ran out the inquiry as it
resulted in pain and was heavy and also cumbersome.
The overview of nylon material trousers noted the beginning of the end for wool
as well as the rise of a new age; the 1980s.
Sport clothes has arrived a long way considering that its own creation and also the styles offered today are actually almost comparable to those
sporting activities garments originally sold in the nineteen-thirties.
Today’s sports clothes has actually been actually incorporated with brilliant design features to make sure ideal convenience as
well as sportswear that are actually attractive has actually ended up being a
preferred choice for many people looking for informal sportswear.
As the twenty-first century relocates right into the 21st century, sports
wear is no longer simply accessible for athletes and
participants of specialist staffs. Numerous common people have actually discovered the
pleasure as well as comfort of activewear garments is being actually produced
frequent individuals too, such as recreation sports
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Though the popularity of activewear has actually current over
the past century, it is actually still an indispensable part
of several sportsmens’ lives. Sports apparel has
actually located a permanent area in sporting activities shoes, fitness center bags and also sporting activities breast
supports. These garments make up the ideal enhancement to the ideal workout
schedule and enhance functionality. The majority of the sporting activities
garments being actually utilized by sportsmen nowadays
are actually particularly developed to meet specific
criteria of the sporting activity they mean to participate in.
A typical sports garment would certainly have trousers, pants, a tshirt and also a association. Commonly tees along with company logos are favored and very most sporting activities
fanatics choose to have a tee with their beloved
sports team. Trousers are actually also a staple clothes product and also very most sporting
activities fanatics prefer to possess at least pair of sets
of pants. A set of pants should have the ability to fulfill all the energetic sports activities.
The trouser size should be such that comfort is actually not adjusted while playing
sporting activities.
Earlier the trouser legs were spandex or even leggings, which assisted to maintain
dampness away, but the mid-twentieth century viewed the growth of synthetic fibers that ended up being the product of selection for trousers.
The textile of option at this moment was actually
nylon material, which had the ability to maintain heat
without absorbing dampness, together assisting in motion. Putting on wool trousers ran out the
concern as it caused discomfort and was actually strong and
also troublesome. The introduction of nylon material pants marked the beginning of the end for woollen as well as the rise of
a brand-new period; the 1980s.
Activewear has come a very long way given that its own
beginning as well as the types available today are just about just as
good as those sporting activities garments originally offered
in the nineteen-thirties. Today’s sports clothing has actually been included with brilliant layout
components to ensure maximum comfort and sport clothes that are trendy has become a preferred option for lots of
people looking for informal sports apparel. As the twenty-first century
moves right into the Twenty-First Century, sportswear is no longer
only on call for sportsmens and participants of expert
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Though the appeal of sportswear has ebbed and flowed over recent century,
it is still an important part of a lot of athletes’ daily lives.
Sports apparel has found a long-lasting area
in sports footwear, health and fitness center bags and also sports bras.
These garments make up the best enhancement to the excellent exercise
routine as well as improve functionality.
Most of the sports garments being actually made use of by sportspersons nowadays are especially created to
comply with details demands of the sport they mean to participate in.
A regular sporting activities garment would certainly possess pants, shorts, a
tee shirt as well as a tie. Normally t-shirts along with logo designs are preferred and also most
sporting activities lovers favor to possess
a tee with their beloved sports group. Slacks are actually likewise a staple clothes
item and most sporting activities enthusiasts prefer to
possess a minimum of pair of sets of slacks. A set of slacks must manage to meet all the active sporting activities tasks.
The trouser length must be actually such that convenience is certainly not compromised
while participating in sporting activities.
Previously the trouser lower legs were actually spandex
or even leggings, which assisted to maintain moisture
away, but the mid-twentieth century observed the growth of synthetic
fibres that ended up being the material of choice for
pants. The cloth of selection now was nylon material, which
possessed the potential to sustain comfort without
soaking up dampness, concurrently promoting movement.
Putting on wool pants ran out the question as it caused discomfort
as well as was actually thick and difficult. The intro of nylon material trousers noted the starting point of the end
for woollen as well as the rise of a new
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Activewear has come a long way because its beginning as well as the types readily available today are
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Today’s sports clothing has been actually integrated along with brilliant layout
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