الجمعة, ديسمبر 27, 2024
الجمعة, ديسمبر 27, 2024
Home » “إثيوبيا ليست كما يصورها آبي أحمد وقد تنهار بسبب الحروب الأهلية”.. ما يجب على الأمريكيين فهمه في الملف الإثيوبي

“إثيوبيا ليست كما يصورها آبي أحمد وقد تنهار بسبب الحروب الأهلية”.. ما يجب على الأمريكيين فهمه في الملف الإثيوبي

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عربي بوست

في مقالٍ “مثير للجدل” نشرته مجلة Foreign Policy الأمريكية مؤخراً، جادل الكاتب والصحفي الأمريكي روبرت كابلان بأنّ “إثيوبيا لن تسقط رغم الحروب الأهلية الخطيرة التي غرقت فيها على العديد من الجبهات”، وبنى الكاتب وجهة نظره على انعكاسات حول الدولة، التي يصفها “عاطفياً” بأنّها “يصعب تعريفها على نحوٍ عجيب، وأنّها أكثر من مجرد دولة”.

وفي محضر الرد عليه، يقول الكاتب في المجلة نفسها، تيفيري ميرغو، أستاذ الاقتصاد المساعد بجامعة واترلو في كندا، إن “تحليل كابلان بُني على نظرة عاطفية بدلاً من الاعتماد على تحليلٍ رزينٍ للقضايا الحقيقية الكامنة وراء الصراعات التي تضرب البلاد، وأهمها المعركة بين القوات الوحدوية التي تُريد حكماً مركزياً، والقوات الفيدرالية المؤلفة من مختلف العرقيات التي تُطالب بالحكم الذاتي”.

وجهة نظر اختزالية للتاريخ الإثيوبي

فأولاً، يُمكن القول إنّ تصنيف كابلان لإثيوبيا على أنّها “نقطة مركزية لحضارة الشرق الأوسط والسامية” هو وصفٌ غير دقيق تاريخياً، ولا يدعمه أي باحثٍ بارز. وبالطبع، كانت مملكة أكسوم القديمة -التي لمح إليها كابلان بذلك الوصف- قد أسّست علاقات ممتدة مع مختلف إمارات الشرق الأوسط وما وراءها، لتؤثر وتتأثّر بالممالك التي تأسست بعيداً في جزيرة العرب واليونان وفارس وشبه الجزيرة الهندية ووادي النيل السفلي.

ويضيف الباحث والأكاديمي مريغو، أنّ الحكام المتتابعين للمملكة الإثيوبية زعموا أنّهم ينحدرون من أحفاد الملك سليمان وملكة سبأ، لكنها أسطورةٌ تاريخية لم تدعمها أيّ أدلة تاريخية جادة. وقد جادل المؤرخون بأنّ تلك المزاعم قد استُخدِمَت في البحث عن شجرة العائلة بواسطة الطبقات الحاكمة من أجل أغراضٍ سياسية داخل بعض مناطق ما يُعرف بشمال إثيوبيا اليوم، فكلما كان النسب المزعوم قديماً ورفيعاً زادت مكانة الملوك، وبالتالي قلّ تشكيك المحكومين في ملوكهم المحليين المستبدين.

وجاء “الخطأ الصارخ” الآخر لكابلان في وجهة نظره الاختزالية للتاريخ الإثيوبي. إذ تُساوي أطروحته بين التاريخ القديم وتاريخ العصور الوسطى لإثيوبيا اليوم وبين تأريخ الممالك المسيحية التي تأسست بواسطة الأمهره والتيغراي في شمال إثيوبيا وبعض أجزاء إريتريا، ما يجعل تحليله للأحداث الراهنة في البلاد غير مكتمل في أفضل الأحوال، إذ يختزل التواريخ والوجود المستقل لكافة الجماعات الأخرى داخل إثيوبيا إلى مجرد “حاشية في تاريخ المسيحيين من سكان الأراضي العليا”.

مشكلات إثيوبيا تنبع من الاستعمار الداخلي

وبينما يعتمد زعمه -بأنّ مشكلات إثيوبيا ليست من حقبة ما بعد الاستعمار- على رؤيةٍ ضيقة الأفق للاستعمار، فقد جادل الباحثون بشكلٍ مقنع بأنّ غزو وإخضاع الشعوب التي تسكن جنوب إثيوبيا على يد الطبقات الحاكمة من الأمهره أواخر القرن الـ19 يُمثّل استعماراً داخلياً له عواقب وخيمة على الشعوب المحتلة.

فقبل غزوهم ودمجهم في الإمبراطورية الإثيوبية، نجد أنّ مختلف شعوب إثيوبيا كانت تتطور في مسارات مختلفة، مع تأسيس بعضهم لممالك وأنظمة حوكمة قوية يُمكنها التأثير على مسار التاريخ الإثيوبي بطرق مهمة.

ويقول الكاتب تيفيري ميرغو الذي نشأ في إثيوبيا: من المخيب للآمال أنّ كابلان لا يُقدم أي تحليلٍ حقيقي للخلافات الكامنة في الحرب الأهلية الإثيوبية الراهنة. فهو يتجاهل -بشكلٍ غير منصف- الحدث الأبرز في تاريخ إثيوبيا المعاصرة: وهو غزو منليك الثاني أواخر القرن الـ19 للجنوب الإثيوبي. وقد سلطت مقالته الضوء بإيجاز على هذا الحدث الجلل في تاريخ إثيوبيا الحديث، والذي لا يُمكن بدونه فهم الصراع المحيط بالدولة الإثيوبية حالياً.

وربما لا تتوافق تلك الروايات والتواريخ مع رؤية كابلان لبلدٍ وصفه بأنّه “أكثر من مجرد دولة”، وهي الرواية الخاطئة التي يسعد دعاة المعسكر الوحدوي بتكرارها دائماً، وفي الواقع نجد أنّ الصراع الراهن في إثيوبيا هو تجسيدٌ للعلاقات المدمرة بين المركز والأطراف، أو بين الأمهره في المركز والإثيوبيين الجنوبيين في الأساس، مع سعي المركز لاحتكار السلطة وقتال الأطراف من أجل تقسيم السلطة ونقلها بعيداً عن المركز.

وبينما يُركّز كابلان على التوقعات المتزايدة في إثيوبيا على خلفية الصراعات الراهنة في البلاد، لكن المقالة تتجاهل الأمر الظاهر وهو طرد جبهة تحرير شعب تيغراي من أروقة السلطة في أديس أبابا، مما يمهد الطريق أمام آبي أحمد للارتقاء إلى أهم مكانةٍ في البلاد.

آبي أحمد وسياسةالاستيلاء على الأراضي

كان الحدث المهم الذي عجّل بتغيير الحرس السياسي في إثيوبيا عام 2018 هو “سياسة الاستيلاء على الأراضي”، التي وضعتها الحكومة الإثيوبية من أجل توسيع أفقي هائل لمنطقة العاصمة أديس أبابا، حتى وصلت إلى أراضي أورومو الزراعية المجاورة، ما أثار حركة احتجاج الأورومو الشبابية المهمة.

ورغم إسهامها الإيجابي على الأرجح في النمو الاقتصادي داخل إثيوبيا، فإن التوسّع متعدّد الأوجه لأديس أبابا في منطقة الأورومو كان من السياسات التي أثارت الكثير من الجدل ضمن سياق عدم تناسق السلطة السياسية بطول الخطوط العرقية. ورغم اعتباره توجهاً للتحديث والتحضر من جانب الحكومة، فإن جمهور الأورومو رأى في هذا التوسع آليةً للإخضاع العرقي والسياسي والاستغلال الاقتصادي، مع تهديدٍ خطير لحقوقهم الثقافية واللغوية.

يضيف الكاتب الإثيوبي المنشأ: بدلاً من التعليق على هذا الحدث وتداعياته السياسية والثقافية، يرتد كابلان إلى خطابٍ استعماري ينسب شيئاً من التفوق إلى شعوب أخرى على السكان الأصليين لإثيوبيا. وبهذا يُترك القارئ غير المطلع لافتراض أنّ عظمة وتفرد إثيوبيا تنبع من ارتباطها بثقافةٍ أجنبية، وأنّ شعوبها الأصلية لم تكُن لتترك بصمةً على التاريخ الإنساني بدون الإشراف الإمبراطوري للمستوطنين القادمين من الأعلى. علاوةً على ذلك فإنّ فشله في أخذ وجهات نظر الشعوب المحتلة في إثيوبيا -وحركات المقاومة الخاصة بهم- بعين الاعتبار هو أمرٌ غير مفيد حين نتحدّث عن حلٍّ للمشكلات السياسية القديمة داخل إثيوبيا.

ورغم أنّ المقارنة المرصودة في المقال بين إثيوبيا ويوغوسلافيا تتعارض مع الاستنتاج الرئيسي لكابلان بأنّ إثيوبيا ستظل قائمة، فإن تشبيه يوغوسلافيا هو في الواقع أقرب بكثير إلى الحقائق المتكشفة في البلاد.

وبالنظر إلى تأثير كتاباته على قادة العالم مع انتشار الصراع في التسعينيات، سوف يتوقّع المرء أن تحمل قصة تفكيك يوغوسلافيا التحذيرية وزناً أكبر لكابلان. وبالطبع، فقد جادل العديد من المراقبين بشكل مقنع بأنّ روايته التاريخية المعيبة لجذور الصراع التاريخي في كتابه عام 1993 قد أسهم في تأخير إدارة كلينتون عن التعامل مع الفظائع المتراكمة التي ارتكبتها الميليشيات شبه العسكرية الصربية.

قراءة أمريكية خاطئة للملف الإثيوبي

يقول ميرغو: على نحوٍ مماثل، فإنّ القراءة الخاطئة لإثيوبيا المعاصرة بواسطة صناع السياسة في واشنطن -التي قد تُبنى على جدالات تاريخية مُضلَّلة دفع بها كابلان في أطروحته الأخيرة- ربما تكون لها تداعيات وخيمة على الملايين في البلاد.

وما خلص إليه كابلان من أنّ إثيوبيا سوف تظل قائمةً مهما كانت الظروف هو تفكيرٌ حالم يرتبط بمؤيدي مركزية الدولة الإثيوبية. وليس من المنطقي تماماً أن نُجادل بأنّ إثيوبيا هي دولةٌ استثنائية، بالنظر إلى تاريخها المتقلب وصعوباتها الدبلوماسية الحالية. كما أنّ أشهر جدالٍ نسمعه حالياً من المعسكر السياسي الوحدوي في إثيوبيا هو أنّ “البلاد لن تنهار نظراً لأنّها استثنائية ومحمية من الله”.

ومع ذلك نجد أنّ الدولة الإثيوبية تتفكّك، مع هزيمة جبهة تحرير شعب تيغراي للقوات الإثيوبية والإريترية في تيغراي، وتقدم جيش تحرير الأورومو بشكلٍ بارز على أرض المعركة في أورومو. وبالطبع، وكما أوضحت سابقاً، فإنّ إثيوبيا سوف تهلك بشدة إذا فشلت في استيعاب المطالب المشروعة للمعسكر الفيدرالي.

تامزيد عن: إثيوبيا \آبي أحمد \إفريقيا \القرن الإفريقي \الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية \الاستعمار \تاريخ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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