واشنطن تنتظر خرق طهران الخطوط الحمر والأخيرة تحرص على عدم المجازفة وتكتفي بتخريب ناقلات النفط وتوجيه الميليشيات في اليمن
اندبندنت عربية / وليد فارس الأمين العام للمجموعة الأطلسية النيابية@WalidPhares
يتساءل المراقبون والمحللون والصحافيون عن حقيقة موقف واشنطن في مواجهتها طهران في الشرق الأوسط بشكل عام ومنطقة الخليج على وجه الخصوص.
ويرتفع منسوب التساؤلات في ظل ظهور الإدارة الأميركية وكأنها في موقع الهجوم، بينما الوضع السياسي في واشنطن لا يزال يترقب الأوضاع، فما هي الحقيقة أو بالأحرى ما هي المعادلة الحقيقية التي تتحكم بالموقف الأميركي اليوم تجاه المواجهة مع إيران.
مما لا شك فيه، أن إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترمب وقسماً من الكونغرس (مجلس الشيوخ) والوزارات الأساسية المعنية كالدفاع والخارجية ومعهم مجلس الأمن القومي، اتخذوا موقفاً موحداً يدعو إلى ضرورة وضع حد “للانفلاش” العسكري والاستخباراتي الإيراني، وسيطرة طهران على أربع دول أساسية في المنطقة، العراق وسوريا ولبنان واليمن، كما أن واشنطن تتحد حيال ضرورة وضع حد لأية محاولة إيرانية لبناء ترسانة نووية، وكذلك صنع صواريخ باليستية ونشرها في إيران أو مستعمراتها.
كذلك فإن إدارة ترمب أثبتت أكثر من مرة جديتها في وضع حد لتوسع إيران، فالرئيس الأميركي باشر منذ أكثر من عام بخطوات عملية في هذا الخصوص، كان أبرزها الانسحاب من الاتفاق النووي مع طهران، ما حرمها من مكتسبات كثيرة، وأتبعها بعقوبات قاسية أنهكت إيران مادياً، ما أضعفت قدرتها على تمويل ميليشياتها وأذرعها في المنطقة. ثم جاءت الضربة القاضية مع إدراج العصب الأساس (الحرس الثوري) في طول المنطقة وعرضها على لائحة الإرهاب، وأُلزم حلفاء أميركا بقطع أية علاقة بمؤسسات مصرفية واقتصادية مملوكة من قبل “الحرس الثوري”، ورفع الضغط إلى حده الأقصى، عبر منع إيران من بيع منتوجاتها النفطية، ولوّح بعقوبات على أية دولة تشتري النفط الإيراني.
طهران لم تقف مكتوفة الأيدي، فردت على خطوات ترمب بضربات مباشرة وغير مباشرة ضد حلفاء أميركا كالسعودية والإمارات، وتحركت الميليشيات في العراق للقيام بمحاولات تطويق للقواعد الأميركية، ما دفع بالرئيس ترمب إلى إصدار أوامر بتعزيز القوات الأميركية ورفدها بحاملات طائرات وقاذفات صاروخية، الهدف منها توجيه رسالة واضحة بأن أي عمل مباشر ضد القوات الأميركية، سيواجه برد حاسم.
هذه الخطوات كشفت أن ترمب عازم على الذهاب بعيداً في مواجهة إيران، بعكس سياسات سلفه الرئيس السابق باراك أوباما، وأدركت طهران أن واشنطن ستحاصرها في كل الأماكن لإرغامها على الانسحاب من الدول العربية وتقليص قدراتها الصاروخية ووأد أية محاولة لبناء ترسانة نووية. كما أنها تعي خطورة المواجهة المباشرة مع واشنطن، فأي احتكاك مباشر مع القوات الأميركية سيعطي فرصة ذهبية للرئيس ترمب لتجييش الرأي العام الأميركي وتهيئته لعمل أكبر بكثير من العقوبات، وإرسال تعزيزات عسكرية ضخمة الى المنطقة.
ومع انتظار واشنطن خرق إيران الخطوط الحمر المرسومة، تعمد طهران إلى عدم المجازفة والاكتفاء بتخريب ناقلات نفط من هنا، وتوجيه ميليشياتها في اليمن، خصوصاً لاستفزاز حلفاء الإدارة الأميركية ومحاولة إنهاك الدول العربية والإضرار باقتصادها. وينبغي القول إن “كل تحركاتها حتى الآن لا ترتقي إلى مصاف التحركات الكبرى التي تعطي الفرصة لواشنطن للرمي بكل قوتها في مواجهة طهران”.
ما هي المعادلة إذن في أميركا؟
لا بد من الإشارة إلى المعارضة الشرسة التي يلقاها ترمب في مجلس النواب، إضافة إلى الصحافة وبعض البيروقراطيين. هؤلاء جميعاً يقفون في وجه أي تصعيد ضد إيران، ويتمسكون بإمكان العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي. هذه المعارضة مجتمعة توجه اليوم انتقادات إلى ترمب في أدائه حيال إيران، ولكن بحال اجتياز الأخيرة الخطوط الحمر ستدفع المعارضة الثمن، وتخسر رهاناتها لأن ترمب سيتمكن من تعبئة الشعب الأميركي. أما في حال استمرار الأمور على ما هي عليه وإصرار طهران على عدم التصعيد المباشر، ستواصل المعارضة الضغط على الرئيس.
على مسافة أشهر معدودة من بدء الحملات الانتخابية، فإن ترمب يتقدم خطوة خطوة تجاه تطويق إيران، وفي الوقت نفسه يتعامل بحذر مع إمكان شنّ أيّ عمل كبير ضدها في المنطقة، بانتظار الحصول على تأييد من الرأي العام. هذه المعطيات تؤكد أن الكرة اليوم في ملعب الإيرانيين وقدرتهم على الذهاب في الأعمال الاستفزازية من ناحية، وقدرة المعارضة في واشنطن على مواصلة الضغط ومحاولة منع إدارة ترمب من حشد قوات أكبر، بحجة وجوب نيل موافقة الكونغرس أولاً، وبالتالي فإن مجلس الأمن القومي الذي يرأسه السفير السابق جون بولتون، هو من يقرّر اليوم مدى حاجة أميركا إلى الزج بقوات جديدة لإكمال الطوق على إيران مع حلفاء واشنطن من العرب والأوروبيين، من دون أن يعرّض هذا الأمر الرئيس إلى معارضة داخلية.
في الخلاصة لا بد من القول إن ترمب بتقدم بالنقاط ضد النظام الإيراني، وبينما تحشد المعارضة قوتها لتأخير هذا التقدم، سيبقى حسم هذه المعادلة معلقاً حتى الأسابيع والأشهر المقبلة.
للمزيد عن: التوتر في الخليج/إدارة ترمب/الحرس الثوري الإيراني/القواعد الأميركية/السعودية
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