Officials forecast below-average hurricane season, but stress ‘it only takes one’

CITYnews halifax / By Mark Hodgins

Canada’s hurricane forecasters are expecting a quieter year for hurricanes, but say people should still be prepared for the possibility of an impactful storm.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre released its 2026 outlook on Thursday afternoon, aligning with the U.S.-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in calling for eight to 14 named storms, with only three to six strengthening to hurricane status.

Officials say a developing El Niño in the Pacific will have an effect on the hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1.

“When that water in the Pacific is warmer, that creates more wind shear downwind, which in this case would be over the tropical Atlantic,” explained meteorologist Bob Robichaud. “When we have more wind shear, we tend to have fewer hurricanes.”

As for how the forecast could translate for impacts on Canadian shores, forecasters lean on about 40 years of data, from the inception of the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth.

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“On average, about 35 to 40 per cent of the storms that form in the Atlantic find their way into our response zone,” Robichaud said. “Typically, maybe one or two would have at least minor impacts, with respect to waves or rain, or perhaps even more significant impacts over our land areas.”

Despite the forecast calling for fewer storms, Robichaud stressed that people should still be prepared for the possibility of a storm making its way into the region.

“We only had one landfalling hurricane in 2022, and that was Fiona,” he said. “We say every year, ‘it only takes one,’ and that’s a perfect example of that.”

The hurricane season extends until the end of November, but the bulk of activity typically occurs in August, September and October.