Liberals maintain ‘commanding’ lead in Atlantic Canada polls

CITYnews halifax / By Natasha O’Neill

Just under a week to go before the federal election and the latest polls are showing a decisive lead for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.

According to Narrative Research, east coast Canadians are “firm” in their intentions to stay with the Liberal Party. The data is showing that the Liberals hold 66 per cent of the vote just before the election, one-quarter plan on voting Conservative while 6 per cent of people are supporting the NDP.

“With approximately half of survey respondents having voted in advance polls, and the remaining being decisive in their voting intentions, findings suggest that Mark Carney has turned the Liberal Party’s fortunes around in our region,” Margaret Brigley, CEO & Partner of Narrative Research, said in the press release.

Of the people who responded, 6 per cent are still undecided.

Related:

• After announcement in P.E.I., Carney makes a stop in a Nova Scotia riding
• Federal election 2025: Elections Canada reports large jump in advance voting
• English language debate left Carney and Poilievre where they started: Abacus Data poll

These results are from an online survey of 1,325 Atlantic Canadians conducted April 21 and 22. It has a margin or sampling error of ± 2.7 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

The survey notes that the Liberals are polling higher in the 55 and older age group and women are more likely to support Carney and his party than men.

(Graph by Narrative Research)

Important stronghold for Liberals

This comes as experts and political candidates eye Atlantic Canada are a key part of the vote on Monday. Despite holding only 32 seats between four provinces, the Liberals have been counting on the votes for a majority governemnt.

The idea that the east coast provinces are critical for the Liberals can also be seen in the last several elections, but it’s not always firm people will lean to the left with their vote.

In 2015, Justin Trudeau’s government swept the provinces, with every single riding going red, forming an overwhelming majority. In 2019, voter reaction to Trudeau waned, with several seats going blue, and one to the Greens and NDP. This resulted in a just short minority government.

By the 2021 election, the NDP and Greens lost their seats out east, both to the Liberal candidates, but the Tories picked up more, leading to another minority government for Trudeau.

“I think the Conservatives will hold on to at least a few of what they have, I really don’t think they’re going to lose everything they’ve got. But the ridings that I think they were in contention to win, now it doesn’t look so good,” Lori Turnbull, professor of political science at Dalhousie University, told CityNews.

Carney has made two appearances in the Maritimes over the campaign, the first being his first stop of this election and as recently as yesterday.