عرب وعالمعربي بداية التصعيد مع إيران وتسارع الأحداث.. هل من حرب؟ by admin 18 مايو، 2019 written by admin 18 مايو، 2019 38 التصريحات السياسية حول الشرق الأوسط باتت تتمحور حول الحرب، حشود عسكرية في الخليج العربي، تهديدات أمريكية – إيرانية متبادلة، وتطمينات من مسؤولين خليجيين حول الاستعداد التام للمرحلة القادمة، تساؤلات كثيرة بات تطرح حول إمكانية توجيه ضربة عسكرية لإيران، أم أن الأمر لا يعدو كونه جعجعة. بقلم: سلام كيالي مع رويترز مخاوف عربية آخر تلك التصريحات صدرت عن رئيس البرلمان الكويتي مرزوق الغانم، قال فيها خلال جلسة برلمانية سرية مع الحكومة يوم 16 مايو، إن المرحلة القادمة خطيرة، والأوضاع غير مطمئنة، وقدم الوزراء خطتهم لمواجهة أية حرب في المنطقة. وزير النفط العراقي ثامر الغضبان بدوره تحدث عن خطط طوارئ تحسبا لأي توقف في واردات الغاز الإيرانية. لغة التصعيد وكيل الاتهامات غلبت على التصريحات السعودية، فنائب وزير الدفاع السعودي الأمير خالد، اتهم إيران اليوم بتوجيهها أوامر الهجوم على محطتين سعوديتين لضخ النفط، الذي تبنته جماعة الحوثي اليمنية، مشيرا إلى أن هذه الجماعة ما هي إلا أداة لتنفيذ 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لمحاربة تنظيم داعش. وهذا يعني أن إمكانية فتح جبهة بهذه الحشود أو الاستعدادات دون تحمل نتائج سلبية أمر مستبعد، وهو ما يقلل من إمكانية نشوب صدام، أقله على المدى القريب. الرئيس ترامب نفسه نفى تقريرا لصحيفة نيويورك تايمز قال إن المسؤولين الأمريكيين يناقشون خطة عسكرية لإرسال ما يصل إلى 120 ألف جندي إلى الشرق الأوسط للتصدي لأي هجوم أو تعجيل لحيازة أسلحة نووية من جانب إيران. الملف الإيراني: حاملة طائرات أميركية تعبر السويس باتجاه الخليج إيران: إنفجارات ميناء الفجيرة تثبت هشاشة أمن دول الخليج العربية وقال ترامب للصحفيين في البيت الأبيض “أعتقد أنها أخبار كاذبة. الآن هل سأفعل ذلك؟ على الإطلاق. ولكننا لم نخطط لهذا. نأمل ألا نضطر للتخطيط لذلك. وإذا فعلنا سنرسل عددا أكبر من ذلك”. أيضا يجب التفكير بالإجماع، فالولايات المتحدة التي تجاوزت مجلس الأمن في غزوها العراق، واكتفت بتحالفها مع بريطانيا واسبانيا لاتخاذ قرار الغزو، رغم معارضة روسيا وألمانيا وفرنسا، وبالحديث عن إيران، فإن هذا الإجماع بالمجمل يغيب، والولايات المتحدة تقف وحيدة مع شركاء عرب “السعودية والإمارات”، في هذا التصعيد. ومن خلال التحركات الاستباقية للدول، نجد أن هنالك عدم تساوي في ردات الفعل، بمعنى أنه لا اجماع على وجود تهديد إيراني حقيقي: تحركات استباقية بريطانيا رفعت يوم 16 ماي مستوى التهديد لقواتها ودبلوماسييها في العراق نظرا لمخاطر أمنية كبيرة من إيران. الولايات المتحدة أيضا أقدمت على نقل موظفيها من السفارة الأمريكية في بغداد بطائرات هليكوبتر، بعد مخاوف من احتمالات التصعيد، وهو ناتج عما تعتقد مصادر أمريكية أن إيران شجعت على هجمات الأحد الماضي على ناقلات نفطية في الخليج. وزير الدولة الإماراتي للشؤون الخارجية أنور قرقاش علق يوم الأربعاء على الخطوة الأمريكية بأنها جاءت بعدما رصدت الولايات المتحدة تهديدا محددا، قبل إصدار تقييمها بشأن العراق. وكانت واشنطن أمرت بسحب موظفيها غير الأساسيين من بعثاتها الدبلوماسية في العراق اليوم الأربعاء في مؤشر آخر على مخاوفها مما تصفها بتهديدات من إيران. قالت المتحدثة باسم وزارة الخارجية الألمانية يوم الأربعاء إن بلادها ستبقي على عدد الموظفين بسفارتها وقنصليتها في العراق ثابتا في الوقت الحالي، وذلك بعدما أمرت واشنطن برحيل موظفي الحكومة غير الأساسيين من العراق. وعلقت كل من ألمانيا وهولندا يوم 15 مايو عمليات التدريب العسكرية في العراق، بعد تحذيرات الولايات المتحدة بوجود تهديدات من قبل قوات تدعمها إيران. وسرعان ما عادت ألمانيا عن قرارها اليوم الجمعة مؤكدة ستستأنف مهمة التدريب العسكرية في العراق عقب إعادة تقييم الأوضاع الأمنية التي أشارت إلى انخفاض مستوى التهديد. وأعلن مصدر من الحكومة الهولندية أيضا تعليق عمليات التدريب العسكري معللا ذلك بتهديد أمني لم يحدده. التصعيد منذ النهاية آخر خطوات التصعيد التي حصلت هو ضرب محطتين لضخ النفط في المملكة يوم الثلاثاء الماضي، بواسطة طائرات مسيرة، هجوم صرح بعده وزير الطاقة السعودي خالد الفالح أنه تسبب في حريق، تمت السيطرة عليه الآن، وألحق أضرارا طفيفة بمحطة ضخ واحدة لكنه لم يعطل إنتاج النفط أو صادرات الخام أو المنتجات البترولية. الجدير ذكره أن هذا الهجوم حصل بعد يومين من تعرض أربع ناقلات، بينها ناقلتا نفط سعوديتان، للتخريب قبالة ساحل دولة الإمارات. والناقلتان الأخريان هما ناقلة منتجات نفطية مسجلة في النرويج وناقلة تحمل علم الإمارات. وفضلت الإمارات التحلي بضبط النفس والابتعاد عن التصعيد على حد تعبير أنور قرقاش وزير الدولة الإماراتي للشؤون الخارجية. وبعد الهجوم على المحطتين جدد الجيش الأمريكي مخاوفه حيال تهديدات وشيكة ضد القوات الأمريكية في العراق. الولايات المتحدة كانت قد أرسلت حاملة طائرات وقاذفات بي-52 وصواريخ باتريوت إلى الشرق الأوسط في استعراض للقوة في مواجهة ما قال مسؤولون أمريكيون إنه تهديد للقوات والمصالح الأمريكية في المنطقة. ما الهدف من وقف تصدير النفط الإيراني؟ ولماذا تهدد طهران بإغلاق هرمز؟ شاهد: قاذفة أميركية من طراز بي-52 تحلق من مدرج قاعدة قطر الجوية السعودية: “الهجوم الإرهابي” على ناقلتي نفط سعوديتين یمثل تهديداً خطيراً لأمن حركة الملاحة البحرية ففي التاسع من الشهر الجاري قالت هيئة قناة السويس المصرية إن حاملة الطائرات الأمريكية أبراهام لينكولن، التي أمرت إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترامب بنشرها في الشرق الأوسط تحذيرا لإيران، عبرت قناة السويس يوم الخميس. وقال مستشار الأمن القومي الأمريكي جون بولتون يوم الأحد إن نشر مجموعة الحاملة الهجومية يهدف لإثبات أن الولايات المتحدة سترد “بقوة لا تلين” على أي هجوم. وفي اليوم التالي أعلنت القيادة المركزية الأمريكية أن قاذفات من طراز بي-52 ستراتوفورتريس وصلت إلى قاعدة أمريكية في قطر حيث تم إرسالها إلى الشرق الأوسط في إطار ما تصفها واشنطن بأنها تهديدات من إيران. وأعلن الجيش الأمريكي يوم الثلاثاء أن عددا من قاذفات بي-52 سيكون جزءا من قوات إضافية مرسلة إلى الشرق الأوسط لمواجهة ما تقول إدارة ترامب أنها “مؤشرات واضحة” على تهديدات من إيران للقوات الأمريكية هناك. بداية التصعيد الأمريكي كل ما سبق من تحركات عسكرية سبقه تشديد الحصار الاقتصادي على إيران، في الثامن من الشهر الجاري فرض الرئيس الأمريكي ترامب عقوبات جديدة تستهدف إيرادات إيران من صادرات المعادن الصناعية، وهدد بمزيد من الإجراءات ما لم تغير طهران سلوكها “بشكل أساسي”. وقال البيت الأبيض في بيان إن ترامب أصدر أمرا تنفيذيا يشمل قطاعات الحديد والصلب والألومنيوم والنحاس في إيران، والتي تشكل أكبر مصدر لإيرادات الصادرات غير البترولية وتمثل عشرة بالمئة من صادرات الجمهورية الإسلامية. شاهد: حاملة الطائرات الأمريكية أبراهام لينكولن تعبر قناة السويس قائد بالحرس الثوري الإيراني: إذا أقدمت أمريكا على خطوة فسنوجه لها ضربة في الرأس وفي أبريل الماضي صرح البيت الأبيض أن فترة الاعفاء التي منحتها الولايات المتحدة لثماني دول لتستمر باستيراد النفط الإيراني ستنتهي مع بداية شهر ماي، وهددت بفرض عقوبات على من لم يلتزم بالحصار المفروض على النفط الإيراني. وكانت الولايات المتحدة قد أعادت فرض عقوبات في نوفمبر 2018 على صادرات النفط الإيرانية بعد أن انسحب ترامب من جانب واحد من الاتفاق النووي المبرم عام 2015 بين طهران وست قوى عالمية كبرى. لكن واشنطن منحت إعفاءات مؤقتة من العقوبات لثماني دول من كبار مستوردي النفط الإيراني وهي الصين والهند واليابان وكوريا الجنوبية وتايوان وتركيا وإيطاليا واليونان. وسمحت الإعفاءات لتلك الدول بمشتريات محدودة من النفط الإيراني لمدة ستة أشهر. التصعيد الأمريكي طال الحرس الثوري الإيراني، حيث أعلن ترامب في أبريل الماضي أن الولايات المتحدة صنفت الحرس الثوري الإيراني منظمة إرهابية أجنبية، لتكون تلك المرة الأولى التي تصنف فيها واشنطن رسميا قوة عسكرية في بلد آخر جماعة إرهابية، إيران ردت بالمثل لتعلن الجيش الأمريكي منظمة إرهابية. euronews إيرانالإمارات العربية المتحدةالسعوديةالعراقفرنسا 149 comments 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail admin previous post N.S. village plans to open a medical clinic 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