Atlantic Canada voters critical for Liberals this federal election

CITYnews halifax / By Natasha O’Neill

Despite holding only 32 seats between four provinces, Atlantic Canada is going to be a key part of the upcoming federal election.

“The Liberals would have a much easier time putting together a government and definitely a majority government if they’ve got Atlantic Canada on their side,” Lori Turnbull, professor of political science at Dalhousie University, told CityNews in an interview.

Compared to British Columbia, which holds 43 seats in one province, Turnbull says 32 seats is going to matter in a tight race.

The latest poll by Ipsos puts the Liberals with a double-digit lead over the Tories among decided voters. The Liberals are up to 46 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives at 34 per cent of the vote nationally if the vote was held April 6. Mark Carney’s party is leading in Ontario, B.C., Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the poll predicts.

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The idea that the east coast provinces are critical for the Liberals can also be seen in the last several elections, but it’s not always firm people will lean to the left with their vote.

“When you look under the hood kind of thing, everybody actually isn’t liberal,” Turnbull said. “Losing Atlantic Canada is tough for the liberals it’s part of that coalition that they build to get majority governments.”

In 2015, Justin Trudeau’s government swept the provinces, with every single riding going red, forming an overwhelming majority. In 2019, voter reaction to Trudeau waned, with several seats going blue, and one to the Greens and NDP. This resulted in a just short minority government.

By the 2021 election, the NDP and Greens lost their seats out east, both to the Liberal candidates, but the Tories picked up more, leading to another minority government for Trudeau.

However, this also shows that Atlantic Canadians are not tied to a single party. Turnbull said in most ridings the Conservatives “are definitely the bigger threat” to the Liberals, except for one.

“I think if the NDP win any it’s going to be Halifax,” she said. “Not because of the NDP, I think the candidate there Lisa Roberts is a very strong candidate…I think if she were to win it, it would be this on the strength of her own bid.”

In West Nova, Turnbull says she “would be shocked” if incumbent Chris D’Entremont doesn’t win, but that isn’t the case for a few other Tory ridings. South Shore—St. Margarets and Cumberland—Colchester aren’t as secure for the Conservatives, but she said it would be a surprise if they did fall.

“I think the Conservatives will hold on to at least a few of what they have, I really don’t think they’re going to lose everything they’ve got. But the the ridings that I think they were in contention to to win now it doesn’t look so good,” she said.

‘Volatility on top of vulnerability’

Like many people across the country, affordability and the economy are top of mind in Nova Scotia and the other east coast provinces. Specifically, people are concerned about the tariffs placed on Canada by the U.S. government, especially impacting trade of seafood and oil.

“The regional economy in Atlantic Canada is not usually the strongest one to begin with,” Turnbull said. “So we are already in a bit of a kind of volatile situation or a vulnerable situation…So there’s going to be a lot of concern about how the economy will be affected, whether we will be able to to sustain our quality of life.”

Even though health care is in the portfolio of the province, how economics impact that issue is still top of mind for Atlantic Canadians.

“If we have economic volatility that means that the provincial and federal fiscal capacity is going to be diminished or at least uncertain,” she said.

Voters in Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island had their premiers step down in a matter of a week, shocking constituents and political experts alike, as the fierce words of possible annexation ramped up from U.S. President Donald Trump.

This sort of shaky ground many voters find themselves on with a lack of firm leadership, is what will make a solid leader the likely choice for the next prime minister. In the past, Atlantic Canadians were concerned with the carbon tax, but the question for who the best choice as leader is, now changes.

“The question isn’t who’s going to axe and tax, the question is who’s going to keep us safe economically?” Turnbull said. “And so if people are looking for that, then it becomes about trust.”