Middle east eye / Shahir Shahidsaless
Les autorités iraniennes semblent résignées à imposer des mesures de type quarantaine ou confinement pour tenter d’enrayer la progression de la pandémie. Mais l’agitation qui couve en Iran pourrait se traduire par un conflit social impulsé par les plus défavorisés
a pandémie de coronavirus a semé le trouble parmi les religieux conservateurs, majoritaires au sein du pouvoir iranien.
Le 23 février, le guide suprême iranien, l’ayatollah Ali Khamenei a qualifié le virus de « maladie grotesque qui sert de prétexte » aux ennemis de l’Iran pour décourager la population d’aller voter aux élections législatives.
Mais le 3 mars, alors qu’un nombre croissant de fonctionnaires a contracté le virus ou a succombé à la maladie, il a invité la population à lire la septième prière du Sahifa Sajjadiya, recueil de prières attribué au quatrième imam chiite, pour combattre la maladie.
Combien de temps cette situation sans précédent durera-t-elle sans que de nouveaux mouvements de protestation apparaissent ?
Le centre de l’épidémie du coronavirus en Iran est la ville sainte de Qom, la capitale religieuse de l’Iran. Elle héberge le sanctuaire de Fatima Masoumeh, la sœur de l’imam Reza, huitième imam chiite, et des dizaines de séminaires.
Qom est le bastion des plus radicaux. Le sanctuaire de l’imam Reza, situé dans la ville de Mashhad, constitue un pilier incontestable du chiisme conservateur. Ces deux sanctuaires sont des « lieux de guérison » où se rendent chaque année des millions de pèlerins pour soulager leurs maux.
Lorsque les rumeurs de fermeture du sanctuaire de Fatima Masoumeh pour endiguer la propagation de la maladie ont commencé à se répandre, Seyyed Mohammad Saeedi, le gardien du sanctuaire, a déclaré : « Les gens doivent pouvoir venir ici pour soulager leur douleur, c’est pourquoi il est nécessaire de laisser le lieu ouvert ».
L’organisation responsable du sanctuaire a indiqué dans une déclaration qu’il avait « un très haut pouvoir antibactérien… et qu’il constituait un véritable barrage à l’épidémie du coronavirus ».
La fermeture des deux sanctuaires dans le but d’endiguer la propagation du virus semblait au départ inenvisageable. Et pourtant depuis le lundi 16 mars, après un revirement net par rapport à l’idéologie, le sanctuaire de l’imam Reza est fermé, tous les livres de prières ont été enlevés, et le sanctuaire de Fatima Masoumeh est également officiellement fermé.
Ces fermetures ont déjà engendré des manifestations à Qom, où, lundi 16 mars, la police a dispersé la foule en train de braver la fermeture des sanctuaires de l’imam Reza et de Fatima Masoumeh pour y pénétrer. Combien de temps cette situation sans précédent durera-t-elle sans que de nouveaux mouvements de protestation apparaissent ?
L’économie de l’Iran est en crise. La quasi-totalité des économistes en Iran, indépendamment de leur orientation politique, considère que la corruption et la mauvaise gestion sont aussi responsables des difficultés économiques de l’Iran que les sanctions imposées par les États-Unis.
Que ce soit au moment de la levée des sanctions américaines ou encore aujourd’hui, le problème central réside dans la répartition de plus en plus inégale des richesses, en partie due à la corruption. Les indices macro-économiques ne sont pas le reflet de cette réalité, notamment de l’accroissement des inégalités de revenus, étant donné que les plus riches ne déclarent pas leur revenu réel.
Favoritisme, népotisme, clientélisme
Il y a quelques années, l’agence de presse Mehr publiait un rapport troublant, ayant fait l’objet d’un travail de recherche approfondi, sur les conditions de vie déplorables de la population rurale iranienne. Aujourd’hui disparu du site internet, le rapport constatait l’exode rural de cette population vers les grandes villes dans l’espoir de trouver du travail.
N’ayant pas les moyens de vivre dans les villes, les nouveaux venus construisent des abris de fortune qui forment de véritables bidonvilles, dépourvus de services publics comme la santé et l’éducation.
Nul n’ignore aujourd’hui que ceux qui participent à institutionnaliser la corruption en Iran − classé au 147e rang des pays les plus corrompus sur 176 pays selon l’indice de perception de la corruption mondiale publié par Transparency International − amassent des richesses en cédant au favoritisme, au népotisme, au clientélisme et à « des activités de recherche de profit », notamment des pots-de-vin et autres magouilles douteuses incluant des détournements de fonds publics.
7. The coexistence of apparently insoluble policies is effectively how the Iranian state and its rhizomatic agents manage disorder and crises. The experience of crisis leaves a historical sign in the governance model which over time 'learns' to cope with critical challenges.
— Maziyar Ghiabi • (مازیار غیابی (او (@MaziGhiabi) March 15, 2020
Traduction : « L’État iranien et ses agents rhizomatiques gèrent les troubles et la crise en adoptant des politiques apparemment incompatibles. Nous tirerons les leçons de cette crise qui aura un impact sans précédent sur notre mode de gouvernance, et avec le temps nous surmonterons les défis majeurs.
- En Iran et ailleurs, le #COVID-19 affectera les relations sous-jacentes entre l’État et la société en matière de santé en impactant profondément et de manière sous-évaluée le rapport des individus à l’autorité et l’idée qu’ils se font du système de santé et de protection sociale. Cela remet la médecine au centre de la politique. »
Dans ce contexte, l’épidémie de coronavirus a aggravé la condition des plus démunis. Ayant subi des pertes de revenu en raison de la récession, la plupart n’ont plus les moyens de se payer des produits sanitaires à prix d’or pour combrattre la maladie.
Masoud Nili, un économiste de renom qui a conseillé le président Hassan Rohani, a mis en garde récemment : « Si cette tendance récente persistait, les pauvres pourraient se retrouver dans une situation dans laquelle ils ne seraient plus en mesure de se protéger contre le coronavirus… Ils pourraient devenir l’épicentre de la contamination et la propagation de la maladie ».
Le vice-ministre de la Santé iranien, Iraj Harirchi, a confirmé ces propos, en déclarant : « On constate une forte concentration des malades du coronavirus principalement dans les quartiers défavorisés. »
Confiance ébranlée
Selon l’éminent journaliste et réformiste militant, Abbas Abdi, le salut du système politique iranien passe par l’interruption de l’épidémie du coronavirus. Il prétend que le gouvernement doit exercer son pouvoir pour reprendre le contrôle du chaos qui règne actuellement dans le pays. Mais la population ne coopère pas avec le gouvernement.
Le ministre de la Santé, Saeed Namaki, a exprimé sa vive préoccupation à l’encontre de ceux qui ignorent les directives du ministère.
Abbas Abdi affirme que la « crise du coronavirus touche toutes les institutions de la nation sans exception, de la famille, au système éducatif, en passant par la religion, l’économie, jusqu’au gouvernement ». Pour surmonter une crise aussi profonde, la population doit accorder sa confiance au gouvernement, comme autorité chargée de lutter contre l’épidémie, une confiance qui a été sérieusement ébranlée ces derniers mois.
En novembre dernier, une décision soudaine d’augmenter le prix de l’essence a déclenché des manifestations dans les métropoles et les plus petites villes du pays. La population s’est retrouvée sans accès à internet, et alors que le pays n’était plus connecté au monde extérieur, une répression brutale a fait des centaines de morts.
Vint ensuite l’incident de l’avion de ligne ukrainien abattu, causant la mort de 176 victimes parmi les passagers et personnel navigant. L’Iran a d’abord nié fermement que l’avion avait été abattu par un missile iranien, en dépit de preuves vidéo accablantes. Une fois que le gouvernement a fini par reconnaître sa responsabilité, des manifestants en colère sont descendus dans la rue.
Il semble que le manque de transparence a encore été de mise pendant l’épidémie de coronavirus. On constate en effet un écart considérable entre le nombre de victimes officiel (2 077 morts depuis le 10 mars) et le nombre annoncé par les autorités locales et les facultés de médecine de tout le pays, hors Téhéran et Qom, les deux villes totalisant le plus grand nombre de victimes du COVID-19.
L’érosion de confiance et le profond mécontentement dans les grandes villes se sont fait sentir lors des récentes élections législatives. Téhéran a connu un record d’abstention avec 75 % des électeurs inscrits qui ne se sont pas rendus aux urnes.
L’agitation qui couve en Iran pourrait se traduire par un conflit social impulsé par les plus défavorisés prêts à lutter pour leur survie. Ces jours-ci, l’armée et les Gardiens de la révolution ont reçu l’ordre de débarrasser les rues, les magasins et les lieux publics des indisciplinés dans tout le pays afin d’enrayer la propagation du coronavirus. Doit-on y voir le signe d’un système qui se prépare au pire ?
Les opinions exprimées dans cet article n’engagent que leur auteur et ne reflètent pas nécessairement la politique éditoriale de Middle East Eye.
Traduit de l’anglais (original) par Julie Ghibaudo.
Shahir Shahidsaless
Shahir Shahidsaless is an Iranian-Canadian political analyst and freelance journalist writing about Iranian domestic and foreign affairs, the Middle East, and the US foreign policy in the region. He is the co-author of Iran and the United States: An Insider’s View on the Failed Past and the Road to Peace. He is a contributor to several websites with focus on the Middle East as well as the Huffington Post. He also regularly writes for BBC Persian. He tweets @SShahisaless.
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