أدت حملة “الضغط التقزيمي” التي قام بها الرئيس الأميركي ضد طهران إلى تفاقم الخلافات بين الرجلين
أجواء التوتر بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران تزيد حدة الانقسام بين كبار مستشاري السياسة الخارجية للرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترمب. فوزير الخارجية مايك بومبيو يحمل ملفاً معداً للتفاوض بشروط أميركية تُبنى على أساس إلغاء الاتفاق النووي، الذي ظفرت بنتائجه إيران في زمن الرئيس السابق باراك أوباما. ويُعد هذا خيار الدبلوماسية الأميركية المشروطة. أما من يصارع هذه الفكرة، فهو مستشار الأمن القومي جون بولتون، الذي يقبض على ملف يقطر من بين دفتيه خيار العمل العسكري. وأسبابه تكمن في أن إيران، ومنذ وصول الخميني إلى السلطة في العام 1979، لم يلمس منها المجتمع الدولي جدية ولا تزال تسلك سلوك دولة عدائية غير متوازنة.
أدت حملة “الضغط التقزيمي”، التي قام بها الرئيس ترمب ضد طهران، إلى تفاقم الخلافات بين الرجلين حول السيطرة المطبقة. بولتون يحاول الضغط على عملية صنع القرار في الأمن القومي باتجاه استخدام لغة العضلات وقص الأجنحة. أما الآخر فلا يزال يقدم توصياته باتجاه مد جناح التفاوض المُلزم على الطريقة الأميركية مع وضع شروط ملزمة قبل التفاوض.
وفي واشنطن، انقسم المحللون في الاقتصاد والسياسة، كما انقسم الفريق الرئاسي، حول ملف إيران الشائك. إليزابيث روزنبرغ، مديرة برنامج الطاقة والاقتصاد والأمن في مركز أميركا الجديد للدراسات الاستراتيجية، تضع أطراً جديدة بشأن استخدام العقوبات المالية والاقتصادية من قبل الولايات المتحدة، قائلة إن “الطريقة التي نفكر بها في العقوبات الآن تتمحور حول الأدوات المالية، فهي في الواقع قيود القطاع المصرفي في المقام الأول. هذه القيود المصرفية هي القيود نفسها التي تحتاج إيران إلى مواجهتها كي تنصاع سريعاً لأهداف السياسة الخارجية المختلفة من دون مراوغة”.
أما مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية والدولية بواشنطن، فقد قال على لسان جون الترمان، مدير قسم دراسات الشرق الأوسط، إن إدارة ترمب تريد أن تُظهر تصميمها على مسألة سلوك إيران في المنطقة مع إثبات قدرة الولايات المتحدة على التحرك وجلب العالم معها. أما إيران فتريد أن تثبت أنها ليست على وشك الاستسلام للضغوط الأميركية، لذا فهي مستمرة في حشد سكانها ولو صورياً.
وأضاف “لا أعتقد أن أياً من الطرفين يريد صراعاً، كما لا يريد أي طرف أن يعتقد أحدهما بأنه يخشى الصراع مع الآخر. التحدي الحقيقي هو كيف سيتراجع الطرفان عن مواقفهما مع حفظ ماء الوجه”.
التوجيهات الرئاسية
بينما كان بومبيو يعمل جاداً على تنفيذ توجيهات السياسة الخارجية للرئيس ترمب، كان المستشار بولتون يحاول تشكيل تلك التوجيهات. ففي بعض الأحيان، يختلف مع الرئيس كما حدث عندما تراجع عن دعوة ترمب إلى سحب القوات الأميركية سريعاً من سوريا.
وعلى الرغم من أن بولتون وبومبيو يتمتعان إلى حد كبير بصفات “الصقور” بين صفوف الحزب الجمهوري، إلا أن بولتون اشتهر بأنه مقاتل بيروقراطي مكشوف بعدما وضع عملية الأمن القومي المشتركة بين الوكالات في قبضة شديدة، وصاغ سياساتها بقوة ولم يكتف بالعمل كمحايد كما فعل العديد من أسلافه.
إلى ذلك، قال مسؤول كبير في الإدارة الأميركية إن بومبيو عبّر عن غضبه من استخدام بولتون لـ”تويتر” للإعلان عن خطوات السياسة الأميركية، التي لم يتم التشاور معه بشأنها. كما عبّر بومبيو عن انزعاجه من رحلات بولتون الخارجية، بما في ذلك إلى إسرائيل وروسيا وتركيا وأميركا اللاتينية، متقاطعاً معه، وفي مناخ قد يخلو من التنسيق بين الطرفين في أحيان كثيرة.
التحليل السياسي
أما التحليل من واشنطن العاصمة بشأن ما يدور في أروقتها، فقد جاء من معهد بروكينغ، عندما أكدت سوزان مالوني، نائبة مدير برنامج السياسة الخارجية، أن هناك مخاوف حقيقية عبّر عنها أعضاء الكونغرس ومجموعات أخرى في واشنطن حول ما إذا كانت هناك إمكانية من جانب إدارة ترمب للضغط على إيران. وقد عزت مالوني السبب بالقول “أعتقد واقعياً أننا نعرف أن إيران كانت مسؤولة عن عدد من الهجمات ضد الوجود الأميركي في المنطقة في السنوات الماضية. إذ لقي 1000 جندي على الأقل حتفهم في العراق نتيجة العبوات الناسفة التي قدمتها إيران أو المساعدات الإيرانية للميليشيات في العراق”.
وفي معرض ردها على سؤال بشأن ما يحدث مع إيران، قالت مالوني “هنالك تاريخ طويل من دعم إيران للمنظمات الإرهابية في جميع أنحاء منطقة الشرق الأوسط، وكان هناك حدس سائد تم تصديقه عندما ألغى الرئيس ترمب الصفقة النووية في رد انتقامي من الحكومة الراديكالية في طهران، وعندما تفاعل مع التهديدات بإرسال قوات ضاربة إلى هناك”.
وفي غضون ذلك، يرى المحللون أن الخطر الإيراني لا تنفع معه الدبلوماسية المفرطة. إذ أوردت الصحافة الأميركية تقارير تفيد بأن بولتون اُنتقد، أولاً، عندما تخلص إلى حد كبير من اجتماعات “لجنة المدراء”. وهي اجتماعات دورية تضم مستشارين ووزراء لإعداد الخيارات السياسية ومناقشتها قبل عرضها على الرئيس ترمب.
وثانياً، عقد بولتون عدداً أقل من الاجتماعات الرسمية المعمقة لمجلس الأمن القومي مع الرئيس في المكتب البيضاوي، التي تستغرق أقل من 15 دقيقة، ويستقطب إليها بولتون الخبراء والمستشارين وفق ما يراه مناسباً.
وفي ما يتعلق بالتعامل الأميركي مع الملف الإيراني في الوقت الراهن، أكدت وسائل إعلام أميركية أن ثمة معلومات استخباراتية جمعتها الحكومة الأميركية تظهر أن قادة إيران كانوا على أهبة الاستعداد للقيام بهجوم مضاد لأي هجوم أميركي محتمل.
ومن وجهة نظر تلك المعلومات الاستخباراتية، يمكن قراءة المشهد الأمني بتشديد الولايات المتحدة الأميركية على حقيقة أن قواتها في العراق وفي أماكن أخرى حول الخليج تتعرض لتهديد حقيقي ومباشر وغير مباشر من الحرس الثوري الإيراني وميليشيات ترتبط بإيران عقائدياً. وهذا ما حفزها على زيادة عديد قواتها في المنطقة وتخفيض عدد دبلوماسييها في العراق.
ظريف وبولتون: تاريخ من العلاقة المتوترة
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