Environment Canada predicts 3-5 major hurricanes this year

CITYnews halifax / By Natasha O’Neill

Experts believe that several named storms could develop this hurricane season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will impact Atlantic Canada.

In its yearly briefing just before hurricane season is set to start next month, Environment Canada’s Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist, said that the number of storms expected in a year doesn’t mean more impact on Canadians.

He said that the Canadian Hurricane Centre only starts messaging on impacts three days before the system enters the country’s “response zone,” the area of water surrounding Canada’s coastline.

“The percentage of storms entering our response on last year was low,” he said in a press conference. “We can count on typically two to four hurricanes or tropical storms that will enter our response zone on any given year.”

Environment Canada experts are following the footsteps of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicting this year should bring 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes. Robichaud said that three to five of those storms are expected to become “major hurricanes.”

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“The peak of hurricane season is from early August until the end of October. That’s where we really get the bulk of our activity,” he explained.

This year’s storm names are mostly expected, except Dexter, which replaced Dorian after its destructive track in 2019.

(Environment and Climate Change Canada)

Factors influencing hurricane season

Robichaud said that experts like him keep an eye on water temperature in the Atlantic. To do that, they look back to 2024 when it was predicted to be “an active” season.

The water temperatures were near record warm, which “really helps fuel these types of storms,” he said.

“Water temperatures in the Atlantic (this year) are somewhat overall warmer than the long-term average, but much closer to that average than they were last year,” Robichaud said.

But these things can — and do — evolve over the year, meaning while data helps pinpoint how storms develop, it can’t always take into consideration the intensity.

Globally there isn’t an increase in the number of storms each year being influenced by climate change, but Robichaud said the intensity is increasing.

“So a larger proportion of storms that are reaching the major hurricane status, the categories three to five. That is something we expect to continue with further warming as well,” he noted.

Hurricane season is from June 1 to November 30.

(Environment and Climate Change Canada)