GDP per capita falls for sixth straight quarter, economists split on rate cut size

CITYnews halifax /By Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press

The Canadian economy shrank on a per-person basis for a sixth consecutive quarter as higher interest rates continued to weigh on business investment.

Statistics Canada’s gross domestic product report says the economy grew at an annualized rate of one per cent in the third quarter, down from 2.2 per cent in the second quarter.

The figure is in line with economists’ expectations, but lower than the Bank of Canada’s October forecast of 1.5 per cent.

Real GDP per capita fell 0.4 per cent in the quarter.

Related:

• Not a moment to ‘squabble,’ Freeland says after premiers’ meeting on Trump tariffs
• Allowing a period of price declines would be ‘painful’ for Canadians: BoC official
• Canadian dollar weakness to persist into 2025, expert says

Economists reacting to the latest GDP figures continue to be divided on whether the Bank of Canada will cut its key interest rate by a quarter or half a percentage point at its meeting next month.

TD director of economics James Orlando wrote in a client note that even though growth came in lower than the central bank’s forecast, “the momentum in the economy should be sufficient evidence for the (Bank of Canada) to scale back the pace of cuts.”

Meanwhile, CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said the weaker growth justifies a larger cut, “although next week’s employment figures are still likely more important in making a final determination.”

The central bank’s key interest rate currently stands at 3.75 per cent.

Friday’s report said higher household and government spending was partly offset by slower inventory accumulation, lower business capital investment and lower exports.

Economic growth remained weak in the month of September, with real GDP rising 0.1 per cent. A preliminary estimate suggests the same pace of tepid growth in October as well.

Despite the slower growth, however, household net savings in the third quarter increased as disposable income grew at double the rate of spending.

The report says high wages and lower interest rates helped the household savings rate hit a three-year peak in the third quarter, reaching 7.1 per cent.

By comparison, it was below three per cent at the end of 2019.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem announced a half-percentage point rate cut in October in response to inflation returning to the bank’s two per cent target, but said the size of the next cut would be determined by incoming economic data.

Canada’s annual inflation rate bounced back up to two per cent in October after falling to 1.6 per cent the previous month.