After St. Paul’s, is there anything Trudeau can say or do to save his leadership

Maybe Trudeau’s right when he says voters aren’t in ‘decision mode’ now — or maybe they’re tuning him out

Aaron Wherry · CBC News 

At some point before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet decided to finally abandon his promise of electoral reform, he had an idea.

He would tour the country to promote and explain the ranked ballot, his preferred option for reform. He said he believed that with enough time and effort, he could convince people of the logic and wisdom of what he was proposing.

He was ultimately convinced that there were other issues more in need of his attention and time. But years later, it’s possible to see that same impulse — that same belief in his ability to make the case — in the flurry of podcasts and interviews Trudeau has done in recent weeks. With his party staring at defeat in the next election, the prime minister has put himself out there — perhaps in the hope that, with enough time and effort, he can once again persuade enough voters that his party is still the right choice.

But in the wake of the Liberals’ shock loss in a previously safe riding in Toronto, it’s fair to ask if there’s anything Trudeau could possibly say at this point that would get a hearing — or if too many Canadians have simply decided they’re done listening to him.

Trudeau’s stated theory about his current situation rests on a belief that voters will feel differently by the time the next election arrives, or that they’ll change their minds when it comes time to make a real choice.

“Canadians are not in a decision mode right now,” he told CBC’s Power & Politics during an interview last week. “What you tell a pollster — if they ever manage to reach you — is very different from the choice Canadians end up making in an election campaign.”

There’s some logic to that argument, at least for an incumbent government. Every election is ultimately a choice, not merely a referendum (“a choice, not a referendum” was a motto the Liberals repeated to themselves when they sought re-election in 2019).

Sooner or later, the other parties contending for power have to explain what they would do differently. Attention and scrutiny will come to bear on the other candidates for prime minister. And even if the electorate is unhappy with the current government, it still has to settle on an alternative.

Trudeau might be particularly tempted to think that things could look different in October 2025. Inflation might continue to cool. Housing construction might pick up. The vibes might improve.

A global wave of democratic discontent

It’s also worth noting that the phenomenon of unhappy voters does not seem to be a uniquely Canadian one. Public frustration was a topic of conversation among the heads of government who gathered in Europe for two summits earlier this month, Trudeau said.

According to Morning Consult, every G7 leader currently has the approval of less than half of their country’s electorate. At 30 per cent, Trudeau actually ranks third among that group. Such widespread dissatisfaction suggests larger forces are at play — the lingering trauma of a pandemic, the strain and uncertainty caused by inflation, the corrosive influence of social media, a divisive war in the Middle East.

“People everywhere are facing a certain amount of frustration,” Trudeau said on Power & Politics. “And I truly believe that, as we choose to step up on solving those challenges — to contrast with a political vision that so far consists from the Conservatives of just making people more angry and saying everything is broken — I know Canadians are pragmatic people who focus on solutions. And that’s exactly what we’re going to be doing.”

How do Canadians really feel about Trudeau?

While Liberal support has evaporated over the last year and a half, that drop does not seem to be a wholesale repudiation of the Liberal agenda.

When Abacus Data surveyed Canadians in May about what a government led by Pierre Poilievre should or shouldn’t do, just 28 per cent of respondents said it should “definitely” or “probably” repeal the Liberal government’s national childcare program. The same number said a Conservative government should repeal the national dental care program.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a rally in Ottawa on Sunday, March 24, 2024. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press)

Sixty-three per cent of respondents did say a Poilievre government should eliminate the federal carbon tax. But 80 per cent said Poilievre’s Conservatives should take climate change seriously — an expectation that could challenge the Conservatives whenever they’re finally compelled to explain how they would reduce Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions.

A different survey released in May, though, asked respondents what attributes they would ascribe to Trudeau personally. The top results were overwhelmingly negative — 49 per cent said the prime minister exhibits “poor judgment,” while 44 per cent called him “arrogant.”

Somewhat inexplicably, 25 per cent said he was “inexperienced.” And more respondents said Trudeau was “dangerous” (32 per cent) than said the same of Poilievre (22 per cent). Just 19 per cent said Trudeau was “well intentioned.”

“There’s no gentle way to say it. This opinion environment is brutal for Trudeau,” concluded Kyla Ronellenfitsch, a former Ontario Liberal pollster.

That’s just one survey. And Toronto-St. Paul’s is just one riding out of 338. But both present serious challenges to Trudeau’s theory that things will turn in his favour once Canadians switch into “decision mode.” (By one estimate, if the vote swing from 2021 to 2024 in St. Paul’s was replicated across Ontario, the Liberals would lose 55 ridings in the province that they currently hold.)

Time for a change?

History would suggest that changing leaders doesn’t necessarily solve anything for the party in power. Pierre Trudeau departed in 1984 and the Liberals were trounced under John Turner a few months later. Brian Mulroney stepped down in 1993 and the Progressive Conservatives were wiped out under Kim Campbell. Jean Chretien handed off to Paul Martin in 2003 and the Liberals were reduced to a minority in 2004 — before losing power entirely in 2006.

Prime Minister designate Kim Campbell waves as she meets with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney in Ottawa on Monday, June 14, 1993. (Tom Hanson/The Canadian Press)

But the argument that someone else might do worse becomes harder to sustain in the wake of St. Paul’s — a riding the Liberals still won by eight points when they were reduced to just 34 seats in 2011, the worst national result in party history.

In his own defence, Trudeau might point to his own record of defying predictions and rallying after setbacks. He took over a Liberal Party that was in third place and led it to 184 seats in 2015. The Liberals then came from behind in 2019 and 2021 to win the most seats.

Trudeau himself has rebounded from scandals and withstood embarrassments, not least the blackface pictures that emerged in the middle of the 2019 campaign. Barring a very sudden change in leadership, he will likely pass Robert Borden and Mulroney later this summer to become the seventh-longest serving prime minister in Canadian history.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talks with children during a Fête nationale event in Montreal on Sunday, June 23, 2024. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press)

But perhaps no politician can defy gravity forever.

It also remains to be seen how ugly things might get within the Liberal Party if he insists on staying. If even a handful of Liberal MPs start worrying aloud about their own chances of re-election, Trudeau could soon be facing questions about desertions and revolt.

“This was obviously not the result we wanted,” Trudeau said on Tuesday. “But I want to be clear that I hear people’s concerns and frustrations. These are not easy times and it’s clear that I and my entire Liberal team have much more work to do to deliver tangible real progress that Canadians across the country can see and feel.”

An election might still be 16 months away. A great many things could happen between now and then. But is it possible there’s nothing Trudeau could say or do now that would make Canadians feel better about a government led by him?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Aaron Wherry

Aaron Wherry has covered Parliament Hill since 2007 and has written for Maclean’s, the National Post and the Globe and Mail. He is the author of Promise & Peril, a book about Justin Trudeau’s years in power.