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في الرابع من فبراير (شباط) الحالي، صدر عن مجلس الأمن بيان صحافي أعاد التأكيد على دعم استقرار لبنان وأمنه وسيادته واستقلاله السياسي، بما يتماشى مع قرارات مجلس الأمن 1559 و1701 و1680 و2591، وكذلك بيانات رئيسه في شأن الوضع في لبنان. ودعا البيان الصادر بإجماع أعضاء مجلس الأمن جميع الأطراف اللبنانية إلى اعتماد سياسة النأي بالنفس عن أي صراعات خارجية على النحو المنصوص عنه في “إعلان بعبدا” الصادر عن طاولة حوار عُقدت في عام 2012. وشدد بيان مجلس الأمن على أهمية إجراء الانتخابات النيابية في موعدها على أن تكون شفافة ونزيهة وحرة وشاملة، وركّز على ضرورة إجراء تحقيق سريع ومستقل ونزيه وشامل وشفاف في تفجيرات مرفأ بيروت في الرابع من أغسطس (آب) 2020. وبحسب ما كشفت مصادر دبلوماسية في مجلس الأمن لـ”اندبندنت عربية”، فإن البيان أتى بمبادرة من البعثة الفرنسية في المجلس، التي أعدت النص بالتنسيق مع دول أخرى، وكان لافتاً تبنّيه من قبل روسيا التي ترأس حالياً دورته الحالية. وأتى البيان منسجماً في مضمونه مع بيان جدة المشترك بين الرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون وولي العهد السعودي الأمير محمد بن سلمان، بحيث تم الاتفاق على ضرورة التصدي للأنشطة الإيرانية المزعزعة للاستقرار في المنطقة، بدءاً من تطبيق القرارات الدولية التي تنص على نزع سلاح “حزب الله” وكل سلاح غير شرعي. ويأتي بيان مجلس الأمن في سياق مسار بدأ في جدة واستُكمل في الكويت بمبادرة عربية خليجية، فإلى أين يمكن أن يصل هذا المسار؟
أهمية بيان مجلس الأمن
أن تجتمع الدول الخمس الدائمة العضوية في مجلس الأمن، والأكثر تأثيراً في العالم، أميركا وروسيا وبريطانيا وفرنسا والصين، ومعها الدول العشر غير الدائمة العضوية، على موقف واحد أو متشابه في شأن لبنان، فهذا ليس تفصيلاً. وأن يصدر مجلس الأمن بياناً بالإجماع ويتفق أعضاؤه على مضمونه، فهذا أيضاً ليس تفصيلاً. وأن تلتقي مجموعة الدول الخمس الكبرى في العالم حول بيان يتلاقى في مضمونه مع مواقف القوى المعارضة في لبنان، وليس مع السلطة السياسية الحاكمة، فهذا أيضاً ليس تفصيلاً. يبقى أن ما يزيد من أهمية بيان مجلس الأمن، أنه لم يكُن متوقعاً، خصوصاً في ظل ترؤس روسيا لمجلس الأمن. وإذا كان صدور القرارات يتطلب موافقة 9 أعضاء من أصل 15 وعدم استخدام أي دولة حق النقض (الفيتو)، إلا أن البيانات الصادرة عن مجلس الأمن تحتاج إلى إجماع كل الأعضاء، ومعلوم أن البيان الصحافي إذا رفضته أي من الدول الأعضاء لا يمكن أن يصدر، حتى إذا اتخذت دولة واحدة موقف النأي بالنفس، فإن ذلك لا يمنع صدوره، بخاصة إذا وافقت عليه الدول المتبقية من دون استثناء. وهو ما حصل عام 2010 كما يذكر الرئيس اللبناني السابق ميشال سليمان لـ”اندبندنت عربية” عندما كان لبنان عضواً في مجلس الأمن واتخذ موقف النأي بالنفس عن البيان الذي صدر والمتعلق بالعقوبات على إيران.
أي تأثير للبيان؟
مما لا شك فيه أن الإجماع الدولي حول ما تضمنه البيان يشكل بحدّ ذاته رسالة دولية ضاغطة على لبنان. ويصف الكاتب السياسي خلدون الشريف البيان بـ”الشديد القساوة”، لأنه تضمن “نقطة واحدة إيجابية وهي الترحيب بعودة جلسات الحكومة، ليفنّد في المقابل كل ما لم تقُم به هذه الحكومة من وعود والتزامات تعهدتها فور تشكيلها”. وبحسب الشريف، فإن “بيان مجلس الأمن مشابه للبيان العربي الخليجي غير القابل للتطبيق بسبب الوضع الاقتصادي والسياسي والاجتماعي في لبنان، إضافة إلى أن الوقت المتبقي من عمر هذه الحكومة قصير جداً ولا يتعدى ثلاثة أشهر قبل إجراء الانتخابات النيابية المقررة في 15 مايو (أيار) المقبل”.
واعتبر أن “البيان تذكيري، بينما العمق أو الأساس يتمحور حول ثلاثة أمور، الأول هو مفاوضات فيينا والثاني ملف ترسيم الحدود (بين لبنان وإسرائيل) والثالث إعادة تشكيل السلطة السياسية في لبنان”.
في المقابل، تشدد مصادر دبلوماسية على أهمية هذا البيان وتأثيره، لا سيما أنه جامع ومتكامل ويحدد النظرة الدولية من الأزمة اللبنانية. لكن السؤال هو، كيف يجب أن تتعاطى الدولة اللبنانية مع هذا البيان؟ بحسب تجارب سابقة، يمكن القول إن الدولة اللبنانية قد لا تتفاعل مع البيان وقد تكتفي بتبلّغه من دون أي رد فعل عملي. ولا يمكن لمجلس الأمن أن يجبر الدولة اللبنانية على تنفيذ ما تضمنه البيان أو أن يفرض عليها مضمونه.
ومعلوم أن مجلس الأمن لا يمكن أن يفرض تنفيذ القرارات بالقوة ولا يمكن أن يرسل جنوداً لتنفيذها، إلا إذا صدرت تحت الفصل السابع. لكن يمكن لمجلس الأمن أن ينطلق من هذا البيان السياسي لاتخاذ إجراءات لاحقة أو قرارات مستقبلية. ولا يمكن أن يتحقق المفعول الحقيقي لبيان مجلس الأمن، إلا إذا تلقّفه المسؤولون في لبنان وفهموا أهميته، لا سيما أنه بيان يلتقي حوله الروسي والأميركي، المختلفان تقريباً على كل شيء.
الموقف الروسي المفاجئ
روسيا شريكة إيران في سوريا والحليفة لكل المعارضين للسياسة الأميركية في المنطقة، وافقت على بيان يدعو إلى سحب سلاح “حزب الله” وإجراء تحقيق شفاف في انفجار المرفأ وفتح تحقيقات جدية لمعاقبة المعتدين على القوات الدولية العاملة في جنوب لبنان. وللمفارقة، فإن روسيا التي لم تصوّت على القرار الدولي رقم 1559 الذي نص على الانسحاب السوري من لبنان ونزع سلاح “حزب الله”، هي نفسها ومن موقع رئاسة مجلس الأمن اليوم، تطرح القرار الدولي إلى جانب قرارات أخرى كمقدمة لاستقرار لبنان والحفاظ على سيادته. وأكدت مصادر مطلعة لـ”اندبندنت عربية” أن الموقف الروسي غير مفاجئ، لا سيما بعد التباين الحاصل بينها وإيران حول الملف السوري. وتكشف المصادر أن موسكو اشتكت من ملف تهريب السلاح والصواريخ من سوريا إلى لبنان والحدود السائبة بين البلدين مراراً، وهي ملفات تزعج إسرائيل، بالتالي روسيا. كما تعتبر موسكو أن كل ما يحصل في سوريا وما يفعله “حزب الله” يتم بدعم مباشر من إيران وبطلب منها. وتكشف المصادر أن الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين اعترض لنظيره الإيراني إبراهيم رئيسي على تصرفات طهران والمجموعات التابعة لها في سوريا خلال زيارة الأخير إلى موسكو. من هنا، تقول المصادر إن روسيا أرادت أن توصل رسالة من خلال مجلس الأمن بموافقتها إلى جانب الأميركيين والفرنسيين على القرارات الخاصة بنزع سلاح “حزب الله”. كما أرادت أن تضع الحكومة اللبنانية أمام مسؤولياتها في معالجة هذا الموضوع. من المؤكد أن حلبة الصراع بين الأميركيين والروس والإيرانيين هي حالياً في فيينا، فهل المقصود من تبنّي موسكو بياناً جامعاً ضد “حزب الله” في لبنان، محاولة للتوصل إلى اتفاق يكون الحزب الخاسر الأكبر فيه، بالتالي تخفيف النفوذ الإيراني في المنطقة، لا سيما في سوريا، بخاصة أن موسكو تعتبر أن لبنان هو الحديقة الخلفية لسوريا والاستقرار فيه ضروري للإبقاء على الاستقرار في سوريا. للقرار الروسي بحسب المصادر الدبلوماسية اعتبارات أخرى قد تكون لها علاقة بحرب محتملة على أوكرانيا، يريد بوتين أن يجهز لها كل عوامل الدعم الدولية إن حصلت، وهو ما يفسر تبنّيه للورقة الفرنسية المدعومة من كل الدول.
هل هي مرحلة شبيهة بما قبل الـ1559
“من المبكر الحديث عن تشابه بين المرحلة الحالية ومرحلة ما قبل القرار الدولي الشهير 1559″، بحسب رئيس المركز اللبناني للمعلومات في واشنطن جوزف جبيلي. “ففي تلك الحقبة من تاريخ لبنان الحديث، حصل تلاقٍ بين تطورات بدأت تحدث في لبنان وفي المنطقة، عندما انطلقت معارضة داخلية للوجود السوري ترافقت مع ضغط في الخارج قاده لبنانيون في واشنطن للعمل على الانسحاب السوري، وتم العمل على قرار دولي نص على الانسحاب وسرّع في تنفيذه اغتيال رئيس الحكومة السابق رفيق الحريري. فإذا كان الضغط الدولي أو الحراك الدولي والعربي اليوم قائم ضد السلاح غير الشرعي والنفوذ الإيراني في لبنان، إلا أن المشهد يبقى ناقصاً في ظل غياب أي تحرك لبناني معارض داخلي موحد شبيه بمرحلة الـقرار 1559، له حجمه وتأثيره في الأرض وامتداده مع لبنانيي الخارج”.
يعترف جبيلي بأن “بيان مجلس الأمن خطوة مهمة، لكن يجب أن تتم ملاقاتها من الداخل اللبناني بمعارضة واحدة موحدة قادرة على تحريك الشارع كما حصل في زمن ثورة الأرز ضد الاحتلال السوري. وهو ما يفسر الإصرار على حصول الانتخابات النيابية في موعدها كاستحقاق تغييري أساسي للمرحلة المقبلة، خصوصاً أن السلطة الحاكمة الحالية غير مستعدة لتطبيق ما ورد في البيان. يبقى ألّا يكون بيان مجلس الأمن مجرد بيان سياسي لتسجيل موقف، وأن يُستتبع بسلسلة خطوات قد يكون أبرزها استعداد مجلس الأمن لاتخاذ مواقف مباشرة تجاه إيران لوقف إمدادها حزب الله بالسلاح والضغط عليه لتسليم سلاحه وعقد مؤتمر دولي خاص بلبنان”.
المزيد عن: لبنان \ مجلس الأمن \ القرار 1559 \ روسيا \ فرنسا \ حزب الله \ إيران
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