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Home » نبيل البقيلي من هاليفاكس : ماذا لو انتصرت ايران وهزم حزب الله؟

نبيل البقيلي من هاليفاكس : ماذا لو انتصرت ايران وهزم حزب الله؟

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نبيل البقيلي / canadavoice1@gmail.com

لم تعد اطلالات «سماحتو» تعن الكثير بالنسبة للإعلام ، باستثناء قناة الحزب وقناة الممانعة المدفوعة ،

وقد تثير افيخاي ادرعي  اكثر مما تهم المحللين السياسيين ، باستثناء عباقرة الممانعة اللبنانية الذين يخرجوا كالربوتات البشرية كلما حان توقيتهم .

تكرار يزداد اجتراراً لنصر فقد صلاحيته «expired»..

اذا .. واذا .. واذا ..

اما الجديد في «اذا» هذه المرة ، فهو «ان دخلتم ارضنا»، سنبيدكم الخ ..

فجأة اصبح «سماحتو» في موقع الدفاع ، ومنظوماته الواعدة جاهزة للدفاع عن لبنان انطلاقاً من الدفاع عن ايران !! .

تراجع ام تمويه ام “استراتيجية” جديدة .. لا احد يعلم مزاج السيد الذي لم تسده الفكاهة المفرطة خلال اطلالته الاخيرة .

دعونا نبتعد قليلاً عن الكلام حول حزب اله ققد بات من التفاصيل التي تأتي كردة فعل او استثماراً لحدث ما .. من اجل استنهاض حالته الجماهبربة الخائبة والمشتتة على المستوى الداخلي .

——–

الولايات المتحدة وايران

ليس مستغرباً الهدوء الذي ساد حالة التوتر التي شغلت العالم خلال الفترات السابقة بين الولايات المتحدة وايران .
فلا اجازة عيد الاضحى قد تكون السبب الكامن وراء الهدنة التي شهدتها جبهة “تويتر” ولا انشغال الحرس الثوري الايراني وحزب الله بتقديم المزيد من الأضحية من الشعب السوري على جبهة ادلب .

ببساطة ووضوح .. هي المباحثات السرية بين اميركا والنظام الايراني .

هذه المباحثات التي عبر عنها الرئيس الاميركي بآخر تغريداته بما معناه انه لا احد مخول ان يتكلم بأسم اميركا حول مفاوضاتها مع ايران ، وحتى الوسطاء .

بالطبع هو يقصد الأوروبين ولا يعني سلطنة عمان المعروفة بصمتها وباطنيتها السياسية وتكتمها حول هذه القضايا .

ولكن فلفكر بواقعية يسودها بعض الخيال :

ما يريده الرئيس الأميركي من وراء اعادة النظر بالاتفاق ، هو الجانب الاقتصادي بالدرجة الأولى ، اي الحصة الاقتصادية التي غامر بها اوباما في نهاية عهده حين تم ابرام الاتفاق والتي حصدها الاوروبيون رعاة الاتفاق واكثر المتحمسين لتوقيعه بأي ثمن ، وهذا الامر كان يرضي غريزة ايران النووية وحلمها منذ عهد الشاه .

ومن جهة اخرى يريد ان يقدم بعض الهدايا لاسرائيل ، ومنها انهاء ظاهرة حزب الله ، ومباحثات سلام مع سوريا برعاية روسية والتي بدورها لها اثمانها وحصتها حول هذا الامر، والتي تتلخص بالاعتراف بوجدها الجديد والكثيف في منطقة الشرق الاوسط ، وفي عمق ازماته التاريخية وهي القضية الفلسطينية .

ولا بأس بالنسبة للرئيس الاميركي من تحقيق هذا الامر اقله قبل الانتخابات الاميركية القادمة .

اما في ما يتعلق بأمن الخليج ومضيق هرمز وتأمين مسارات عبور النفط فقد قال ترامب بوضوح ان اميركا غير معنية كثيراً بهذا الامر كونه لا يهدد امداداتها النفطية وهي تتمتع بمخزون هائل منه .. فمن السهل ان تهدي اميركا ايران هذا الدور واعادة ترسيمها كشرطي مطلق في منطقة الخليح .

وهذا الامر قد لا يقلق السعودية او الامارات التي سارعت تحديد جديد لعلاقتها مع الجمهورية الاسلامية ، اما البحرين فتكتفي بكف شر ايران عنها كي تسير في ركب اية مرحلة جديدة .

اذاً المصالح الاميركية الاقتصادية والاسرائيلية الامنية مع ايران هي جوهر المفاوضلت .

وفي المقابل لن تعط ايران اي شيء بسهول وقبل الحصول على اضعاف ما تعطيه، وهذه ثقافة ايرانية فارسية راسخة

علينا ان ندرك ان الرئيس الاميركي لا يرغب بدخول الانتخابات الاميركية القادمة باللباس العسكري . ولا على صهوة دبابة او صاروخ باليستي كما يفعل الزعماء العرب او رجال المرشد .

على المستوى الداخلي يعتقد انه حقق لاميركا من الانجازات الاقتصادية (مع ان التقارير الاقتصادية تشير الى عكس ذلك) ما تخوله ان يكسب معركته بيسر في ظل غياب اي خصم جدي .

اما على المستوى الخارجي ، والذي لا يثير الاميركيين كثيراً وليس في دائرة اهتماماتهم الملحة ، باستثناء الجانب المتعلق بأسرائيل وامنها .

وقد حصلت اسرائيل في عهد ترامب على ما لم تحصل عليه من اية ادارة اميركية طوال فترة احتلالها لفلسطين .

بإختصار للتفاصيل التي يكمن الشيطان فيها، لم يبق امام ترامب من مواجهاته العشوائية حول العالم سوى الازمة مع ايران وطموحاتها المزمنة في التحول الى دولة نووية .

من وجهة النظر الاميركية يقول بومبيو ان الوقت ينفذ امام ايران ، بينما هي تدرك انها تمتلك المتسع من الوقت واكثر راحة في مناوراتها الاعلامية والعسكرية .

تجاربها البالستية مستمرة ، والاورانيوم يزداد خصوبة (مع استحالة تدميره عسكرياً) اذا تجاوز مرحلة معينة . وقد يصبح امراً واقعاً لا يمكن حل مشكلته الا بالمفاوضات السياسية .

مراكز التدريب لنوع جديد من الارهابيين (١٤ مركزاً) استعداداً للحرب المحتملة هي ايضاً مستمرة ، والحرس الثوري يستعد برفاهية للمواجهة القادمة والمتخيلة في استراتيجيته العسكرية .

ايران محاصرة بالكامل ، ولكنها تمتلك حرية التحرك كما تشاء وليست بحاجة الى اية «تأشيرة» ، طالما ان القرار بيد مرشدها الاعلى .

مستقبل حزب الله

المرحوم السيد هاني فحص الذي عايش انطلاقة الثورة الخمينية وقابل قائدها ، يقول في احدى مقابلاته رداً على سؤال :

– تصف تعامل إيران مع شيعة لبنان وكأنهم جالية إيرانية؟

نعم لأن الإيراني استيلائي، لا يُحب أن يكون له دور وإنما نفوذ. الدور يعني الشراكة، الدور يشترط الآخر، والنفوذ استتباع واستلحاق، زبائني ريعيّ يشتري الرقبة والقرار، يهمّه الوصول إلى هدفه، هو براغماتي جداً ومسكون بهاجس الإمبراطورية التي يريد استعادتها بمنطق القوة الفارسية أو الشيعية أو الإيرانية مقابل الكثرة العربية. وقد جاءت للإيراني فرصة ذهبية سنة 1982 عندما ترك العرب فلسطين ولبنان، فاستغلّ غفلتهم، وذهب إلى قضية العرب الأولى، وإلى قضية السنّة الأولى وأمسك بها، فلسطين هي الذريعة، ونظّم حركة مال وذهب إلى النظام السوري. في الوقت نفسه كان العرب يُدلّلون النظام العلوي وحافظ الأسد، ولم يُقدّموا مشروعاً للعراق، تركوا الجنوب وتركوا فلسطين، وراحوا يُقدّمون مالاً بلا عقل وبلا برنامج.

– هل المال الإيراني ذكي فعلاً ؟ 

جداً، سمعت بأُذني مسؤولاً مالياً إيرانياً يقول إذا أردت أن تُعطي عربياً أو لبنانياً ألف تومان، فلا تعطِه إياه دفعة واحدة وإنما أعطِه إياه على ثلاث دفعات، كي تربح منه ثلاثة أضعاف.

 

هذه هي اللغة الايرانية في مخاطبة الشيعة في لبنان!!

——-

لقد اعطت ايران حزب الله ببزخ رغم اعتراض المجتمع الايراني الذي يعاني الفقر ، وحصلت على جمهورية مترنحة ومئات القرابين من ابناء لبنان والطائفة الشيعية ، ولامست اقدامها الشواطىء الدافئة بفضل رشوة بعد القيادات المسلمة والمارونية والدرزية (وقد يدرج بعضهم في اللوائح القادمة للعقوبات) ، ولعبت على النزاع حول السلطة والنفوذ ، وساهمت في تصفية بعض القيادات العلمانية البارزة .

حزب الله الغارق في ازماته الداخلية وثقل الصواريخ التي يمتلكها واعباءه المالية نتيجة العقوبات وجفاف المال الايراني . سيكون على قائمة ابرز ضحايا اي اتفاق اميركي ايراني ، وسيدخل مرحلة من التلاشي بدأت علاماتها تظهر بوضوح من خلال خطابات نصر الله الهذيلة الفارغة من اية مضامين تشير الى انه قادر على الخروج من مأزق اللعب مع الكبار .

حزب الله اللبناني ، يفشل في لبنانيته مع عودة الاحلام الايرانية الى اصولها ومصالحها الفارسية الاستعمارية ، ويفشل وهو يخرج من سوريا حتى دون اية تعويضات للشباب الذين غرر بهم بشعارات مذهبية جوفاء لا تصرف في الدنيا ولا ألآخرة.

بالطبع لن تنتهي الطائفة الشيعية في لبنان مع افول رايات الحزب الصفراء من شوارع الجنوب . ولا في استيلاء الفرس على الحوزات المعتدلة ولا في تغيير المفاهيم التي عشنا على اعتدالها ، فالطائفة الشيعية عميقة بجذورها وثقافتها العربية و”عاملها” الذي قدم النخب والعلماء المتنورين والعلمانيين الذين اثروا الوطن والثقافة العربية .

ستكسب ايران الكثير من خلال المفاوضات الجارية بصمت مع الولايات المتحدة ،
وامام الشيعة الخيار بين الاحتفال بمكاسب ايران ، وخسارة حزب الله ، او العودة لبناء الجمهورية من جديد خارج طروحات ايران الانعزالية وحزبها وراياته الصفراء .

.. وعلى حزب الله ان يبحث عن شريك سوف يقبل هداياه من صواريخ ستصبح خردة في مخارنها السرية .

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