نبيل البقيلي / canadavoice1@gmail.com
الاطلالات الكثيرة بمناسبات مفتعلة لنصرالله تعكس مدى رغبته في احراق المراحل التي تمر بها الثورة اللبنانية الصامدة بقوة حتى الآن .
والمقصود عبر الاطلالات السابقة واللاحقة التي قد تتحول ربما الى ظهور علني لنصر الله بعد سنوات طويلة من الكلام عبر قناتي المنار والميادين كي يحدث صدمة اعلامية لدى جمهوره . المقصود هو «اطلاق المبادرات الواهية” لجس نبض شارع الثورة من جهة ، لتحديد معطيات وجهته النهائية ، اي محاولة كشف قيادات الثورة واستعداداتها عبر احراجها بالدعوات الى الحوار ، بعد ان فشلت خططه السابقة في اتهامها بالعمالة للخارج.
الاتهام لم يلق حينها اية ردود فعل من قبل التنسيقيات التى تعمل بحرفية عالية من السرية والدقة وجماهيرها تتلقف الاشارات وتحدث ردات الفعل.
هذا الاسلوب الجديد والمميز اثار حيرة الاجهزة الامنية لحزب الله وجيشة الالكتروني ، بل شله عبر عدم قدرته على اختراق الشبكات التي تدير الثورة ، وعدم قدرته «اي الحزب» على التأثير بالتوجيهات التي يتلقاها الشارع من قياد ته ، مما يحول هذا الشارع الى قيادات فعلية على الارض ، خارج نطاق سيطرة الطوائف والقيادات السياسية المهيمنة من خلال نتائج وافرازات الحرب اللبنانية والاتفاقات التي نتجت عنها بتكريس النظام الطائفي وتأكيد دور هذه القيادات الابدي في ملكية الوطن.
قدمت الثورة خارطة طريقها بعناوين واضحة عابرة للطوائف تتناول البعد الانساني والاجتماعي والاقتصادي .لذلك نجد ان كافة الشعارات المطروحة هي في الحقيقة اصلاحية ليس الهدف منها قلب النظام انما تطويره من خلال هذه المطالب العصرية المحقة التي تمس المواطن بالصميم ، وهي في نفس الوقت تضرب المنظومة السياسية والدينية بالصميم.
الثورة استحوذت على شرائح متنوعة واساسية من المجتمع اللبناني لها حقوق مسلوبة ومطالب محقة بالمشاركة او العيش في وطن تسوده العدالة وتكافؤ الفرص خارج اطار المحاصصة المعمول به ،
تعتبرهذه الحقوق في بلد طائفي مثل لبنان بمثابة انقلاب ثوري على الطبقة السياسية المسلحة بمراجعها الدينية . بل الغاء لهذه المراجع او تحجيم دورها واقتصاره على الشؤون الدينية .
هذا التنوع كان جذاباً بالنسبة للجماهير غير الحزبية او الطائفية :
– المرأة كانت في المقدمة تحمل هموم منح الجنسية اللبنانية لعائلتها ، غياب المحاكم المدنية واعطاء كافة الصلاحيات للمحاكم المذهبية في الفصل بقضايا معظم احكامها جائرة وتتناول المرأة كطرف اضعف .
– البطالة المتفشية . الهجرة دعت الطبقة المسحوقة الى المشاركة بعفوية في الثورة .
– الطلاب والطالبات ، الاطباء ، العمال على الرغم من سيطرة الاحزاب على معظم النقابات . كانوا الشريحة المهمة الممثلة بعفوية وكثافة في تأجيج بدايات الانتفاضة حتى تحولها الى ثورة .
– الاطباء ، المهندسون، الفنانون ، الشخصيات الاجتماعية جذبتهم الثورة بعفويتها وصدق شعاراتها .
– مشاركة تلاميذ مدارس وطلاب جامعات في جونية شمالي لبنان وصيدا جنوبي البلاد، رغم التهديدات والضغوط التي مارستها بعض المؤسسات التربوية على طلابها لعدم المشاركة بالتحركات الاحتجاجية.
– المثقفون بتنوعهم الابداعي شكلوا نواة المواجهة عبر مواقع التواصل ضد جيش الحزب الالكتروني المسخر له احدث التقنيات واكبر الميزانيات .
– الجاليات في كندا واميركا واستراليا واوروبا شكلت ادوات ضغط بطريقة ما على حكومة بلادهم عبر شرح اهداف الثورة الاصلاحية والاجتماعية.
– المطالبة بتحرير القضاء من التدخلات السياسية، والتأكيد على استقلالية القضاء ليتمكن من مساءلة ومحاسبة الفاسدين.
اما الاهم ما حدث في المحافظات اللبنانية وفي مقدمتها مدينة طرابلس في الشمال والمصنفة ضمن المدن «الحاضنة للتطرف» خرجت و مازالت على مدار النهار والليل تطلق صرخات الوحدة متجاوزة الطوائف والمذاهب وانخراطها في اهداف الثورة والمطالبة بالاصلاحات وتجاوز النظام الطائفي الحاكم .
الجنوب .. خرجت صور واعلنت النبطية قيادتها الحراك الجنوبي رغم ممارسة القمع من قبل حزب الله والقوى المحلية المصنفة سابقاً في قوائم العملاء الى ان اطلق الحزب سراحها واستخدمها في عملياته المخابراتية الداخلية ومنها التصدي للثورة .
من هنا وامام هذا التنوع الميداني استحقت الثورة لقبها وتحولت الى جامع لكل الطوائف والشرائح.
في المقابل فكرة وجود حزب الله هي فكرة طائفية مذهبية توسعية مغامرة مرتبطة بايران بوضوح ومسؤولية .
على الرغم من ان التنسيقيات لم تطرح بل تجاهلت قضية حزب الله وسلاحه من ضمن اولويات شعاراتها ، واقتصر الامر على بعض الشتائم والتحليلات الفردية للمواطنين (وربما بعضها من ادبيات الحزب نفسه وهو يقف وراءها لتشويه شعارات الثورة ) .على الرغم من ذلك لم تسلم ساحة الشهداء من قبضات رجال القمصان السود واعتداءاتهم على الصبايا والشباب وخيم الاسعافات ومراكز النجدة الشعبية .
نصر الله وحده يفهم اهمية هذه الثورة وخطورتها وتهديدها لوجوده ودوره في لبنان على المستوى الداخلي و الاقليمي :
– خسرت ايران دورها في سوريا امام لعبة الكبار : تركيا،روسيا،اميركا .
– خرجت هي وحزبها من احتمالات الضغط على اسرائيل .
– الجولان اصبح من ممتلكات اسرائيل .
– جبهة الحنوب اللبناني تحت المجهر الروسي من خلال اتفاقاته مع اسرائيل.
– التفاهم والاتفاق غير المعلن بين الحزب واسرائيل بالمحافظة على قواعد الاشتباك في الجنوب والالتزام بوقف اطلاق النار التاريخي بين الحكومة اللبنانية واسرائيل.
– دخول اليمن في مرحلة اتفاق على الطريقة اللبنانية «لا غالب ولا مغلوب» الجنوب لحكومة هادي والشمال للحوثيين ، وكلاهما تحت السيطرة السعودية والوعود بالمساعدات الهائلة وابرزها دخولهما في منظومة مجلس التعاون الخليجي.
نصر الله يعرف ايضاً معنى وعواقب هذه الخسارات ، وايران تحاول المكابرة بتصعيدها مستوى التخصيب الى اقصاه دون اية ردود فعل مهمة على المستوى الدولي.
بعد تبدد اجواء احتمال حوار ما بين المملكة العربية السعودية والجمهورية الاسلامية ، تبددت معها احلام دور ايراني بارز في منطقة الخليج وبالتالي تغيرت قواعد اللعبة بالنسبة لحزب الله وتحولت الى المحافظة على إحكام سيطرته على الداخل اللبناني.
ورقتان مهمتان على وشك ان تفقدهما ايران بعد خسارتها في سوريا واستيلاء الاتراك على معظم انجازاتها برضى الروس وبصمت مطبق من النظام السوري الذي بدوره يعتبر الوجود الايراني وحزب الله في سوريا منتهي الصلاحية .
العراق المنتفض عبر النموذج اللبناني انما باسلوب اكثر حدة . من خلال التصدي للفساد وسيطرة ايران على مفاصل الحكم والقيادات العسكرية والسياسية . وتهميش دور العراق العربي والدولي . وتأكيد دور المليشيات التابع لايران ، وخلق الفوضى التي يصعب ادارة البلاد بوجودها .
تماماً كما يحدث الامر في لبنان مع اختلاف ان «التنظيمات والحشد الشعبي العراقي» ليسوا على المستوى الامني والعسكري. لحزب الله اللبناني .
خسرت ايران حتى الآن وجودها واحلامها في سوريا واليمن ، وهي تخوض معركة تجنب خسارتها العراق ولبنان الذي يعتبر الخاصرة الاضعف والاقوى بالنسبة لها .
الاضعف لانه تحت السيطرة الكاملة للحزب على المستوى السياسي :
– رئيس الجمهورية من صناعتهم وصهره وتياره تحت سيطرتهم .
– رئيس الحكومة المستقيل دمية بين ايديهم.
– المجلس النيابي موال وحليف اساسي لهم ضمن التسمية المعروفة بالثنائية الشيعة.
الدولة المتصدعة الان هي دولة حزب الله ،
اما الخاصرة الاقوى فقد تجلت بالثورة العفوية التى وحدت الفكرة اللبنانية من جديد وتحاول ان تجمع اشلاء الوطن ، الامر الذي لا يرغب به الحزب اطلاقاً ومهما بلغت خطط المواجهة ضراوة فهو جاهز للدخول بها ولكنه ينتظر الوقت واستنفاذ المراحل :
– محاولة تشكيل حكومة «خدعة» برئاسة سعد الحريري.. بالطبع سوف ترفض هذه الحكومة من قبل الثورة.
– الذهاب الى الرئيس ومطالبته بفتح حوار مع ممثلين للثورة .. سترفض الثورة ذلك قبل اعلان واضح لتحقيق الاصلاحات .
– الضغط على الرئيس لدفع الجيش الى فض الثورة وتجمعاتها بالقوة ..مما سيحدث بلبلة داخل المؤسسة العسكرية كونها تفادت حتى الآن الدخول بمواجهة حقيقية مع الثورة.الى جانب الانتماء اللوجستي للجيش في علاقاته مع الولايات المتحدة والتهديد بتجميد اكثر من مئة مليون دولار من المساعدات العسكرية .
– التهويل والترويج لأزمة اقتصادية خانقة سوف تطال مصالح الناس مباشرة اذا استمرت حالة اقفال الطرقات ، في محاولة لاحداث التصدع في قواعد الثورة الموجودة على الارض .
نصر الله يدرك تماماً ان انهيار ما يطلق علبه “العهد” هو انهيار للحزب الذي يعمل يصفة حاضنة له . وهو لا يترك قراراته للصدف او ردة الفعل ، انه يمتلك قدرة المناورة لتهيئة الظروف لاتخاذ قراراته ، وهو ينتهج اسلوب الضربات الاستباقية .
التريث المفخخ الذي يمارسه الآن نصر الله هو ليس مجرد كسباً للوقت فقط، انما ابتزازاً للثورة وتفريغها من شعاراتها ومن ثم توجيه الضربة العسكرية القمعية لها ، والتي لا يمكن التكهن بنتائجها ولكنها بالتأكيد ستكون عبارة عن مجزرة سوف تقشعر لها الابدان .
من المستحيل ان يتوافق حزب الله المذهبي مع ثورة ذات ابعاد وطنية . و نصر الله مقتنع بخطورة واهمية الثورة واسلوبها الذي يعتبره مؤامرة على المقاومة والغاءً وتجاوزاً لوجودها ، فالحزب لا يملك اي مشروع وطني مدني او سياسي ، سوى ما يخدم وجوده كقاعدة ايرانية متقدمة في المنطقة . وهو الاكثر استهدافاً لهذه الثورة .
في المقاربات بين الطائفي والوطني ، سوف يختار المواطن خط الثورة الذي اصبح يمثل مشروعاً حقيقياً يطمح اليه الشباب ولن يغامروا مجدداً بخسارة امكانية تحقيقة بتجاوزه منتصف الطريق وتحوله الى واقع حقيقي بعد حالة اليأس التي سادت البلاد ، وقمع حركات عديدة ذات طابع مدني .
حزب الله بسلاحه او دونه لم يعد يخف هؤلاء المنتشرين في الساحات شمالاً او جنوباً او بقاعاً.
هي فرصتهم في احداث التغيير الضروري ، ولن تشكل حالات المواجهة العنيفة التى سيلجأ اليها نصر الله وقمصانه السود او جيشه او استدراج بعض بقايا احزاب الممانعة المنهارة كالحزب السوري القومي وجماعة وئام وهاب او حتى اللجوء الى مرتزقة من ايران وسوريا .
كل ذلك لن يضعف من عزيمة الثورة .
وان كانت الثورة اللبنانية هي ثورة المستحيلات ، فهي ايضاً تسير بخطوات مدروسة وبأهداف ومطالب واضحة وقيادة حكيمة متماسكة وهي تجذب المزيد من الشرائح الاجتماعية الذين وجدوا فيها خلاصهم وتحقيقاً لاحلامهم.
من يظن ان ثورة بكل طوائف الشعب هي مستحيلة ، خاب ظنه واولهم حزب الله . ومن ظن ان تحقيق اهداف الثورة من المستحيلات سوف يخيب ظته ايضاً .
أول من اخطأ الظن والتفدير في المرتين كان حزب الله نفسه .
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