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Home » معهد التمويل الدولي: الركود سيشتد بإيران والاحتياطيات ستنخفض

معهد التمويل الدولي: الركود سيشتد بإيران والاحتياطيات ستنخفض

by admin

وكالات -سكاي نيوز عربية – أبوظبي / قال معهد التمويل الدولي، إن ركود الاقتصاد الإيراني، الذي يعاني بسبب عقوبات تحد من مبيعات النفط، سيشتد خلال السنة المالية الحالية، وقد تتراجع احتياطيات البلاد من النقد الأجنبي إلى 73 مليار دولار بحلول مارس، لتفقد البلاد بذلك قرابة 40 مليار دولار خلال عامين.

وأضاف المعهد في تقرير أن اقتصاد إيران انكمش 4.6 بالمئة في السنة المالية 2018-2019، ومن المتوقع أن يتفاقم الانكماش إلى 7.2 بالمئة في السنة المالية الحالية.

وفرضت الولايات المتحدة عقوبات على 17 كيانا من منتجي المعادن وشركات التعدين في إيران الأسبوع الماضي، ردا على هجوم إيراني استهدف قوات أميركية في العراق انتقاما لمقتل قاسم سليماني، قائد فيلق القدس في الحرس الثوري الإيراني.

وإيران ليست من كبار منتجي المعادن، لكن العقوبات تزيد الضغط على الاقتصاد الذي يكبله تراجع حجم صادرات النفط الخام والمكثفات، والذي انخفض إلى أقل من 0.4 مليون برميل يوميا في الشهور القليلة الماضية، بعدما بلغ ذروته عند 2.8 مليون برميل يوميا في مايو 2018.

وكانت إيرادات إيران النفطية قد ارتفعت بعد إبرام الاتفاق النووي بين طهران والقوى العالمية عام 2015، مما وضع حدا لنظام عقوبات فُرض على إيران قبل ذلك بثلاث سنوات بسبب برنامجها النووي المثير للجدل، لكن أعيد فرض عقوبات جديدة بعد انسحاب الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب من الاتفاق عام 2018 وهي العقوبات الأمريكية الأكثر إيلاما على طهران.

وذكر معهد التمويل الدولي أنه إذا استمرت العقوبات الأميركية “فبعد عامين من الركود الشديد، سيظل النمو ضعيفا على المدى المتوسط وسيرتفع معدل البطالة أكثر ليتجاوز 20 بالمئة وستواصل الاحتياطيات الرسمية تراجعها إلى حوالي 20 مليار دولار بحلول مارس 2023″، حسبما ذكرت “رويترز”.

وأشار المعهد إلى أنه “إذا جرى رفع العقوبات الأميركية، فإن نمو الاقتصاد الإيراني قد يتجاوز ستة بالمئة سنويا على أن تستأنف الاحتياطيات ارتفاعها إلى 143 مليار دولار وقد يتضاعف الناتج المحلي الإجمالي إلى مثليه ليصل إلى 639 مليار دولار بحلول مارس 2024″.

المزيد عن: الركود/تدهور اقتصاد إيران/الاقتصاد الإيراني/اقتصاد إيران/عجز اقتصاد إيران

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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