Uncategorized لماذا لم تنشر روسيا داخل أوكرانيا سوى نصف قواتها على الحدود؟ by admin 27 فبراير، 2022 written by admin 27 فبراير، 2022 41 لم يعد السؤال ليس من سيفوز بالحرب ولكن ماذا سيحدث بعدها؟ اندبندنت عربية \ طارق الشامي صحافي متخصص في الشؤون الأميركية والعربية @tarek21shamy https://www.canadavoice.info/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/لماذا-لم-تنشر-روسيا-داخل-أوكرانيا-سوى-نصف-قواتها-على-الحدود؟.mp4 لم تنشر روسيا داخل أوكرانيا سوى أقل من نصف قواتها المحتشدة على حدود أوكرانيا بحسب تقارير غربية، مما يثير أسئلة حول السبب وراء عدم الدفع بباقي القوات الروسية حتى الآن، فهل يعني ذلك أن موسكو تتوقع مقاومة عنيفة مع محاولاتها دخول العاصمة الأوكرانية كييف، أم لأن القوات الروسية لم تسيطر بعد على أجواء أوكرانيا مما يستلزم الانتظار حتى تحقيق هذا الهدف؟ مجرد بداية يبدو أن الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا هو مجرد بداية، فالقوات التي احتشدت على الحدود على مدى أشهر والتي وصل تعدادها وفقاً للتقديرات الغربية إلى نحو 200 ألف جندي، لم يدخل منها إلى الأراضي الأوكرانية سوى أقل من نصفها بحسب تصريحات مسؤولين عسكريين أميركيين، مما يشير إلى إمكان حدوث تصعيد ومواجهة مع دخول القوات الروسية إلى ضواحي العاصمة كييف التي استعد المدنيون والعسكريون فيها لخوض معركة ضارية لصد القوات الروسية المهاجمة وطردها من العاصمة. ويرى خبراء عسكريون أن هناك عدداً من الأسباب المحتملة لعدم نشر روسيا الجزء الأكبر من قوتها في أوكرانيا، ويقول الباحث في معهد أبحاث السياسة الخارجية والضابط السابق في مشاة البحرية الأميركية روب لي، إن القوات الغازية اعتمدت إلى حد كبير حتى الآن على التنقل عبر الطرق الرسمية البرية بدلاً من الاندفاع بالآليات العسكرية المختلفة عبر الريف الأوكراني، الأمر الذي أدى إلى اختناق طبيعي في المرور، ومن المحتمل أن يحتفظ الروس بقوات احتياطية في حال مواجهتهم جيوب مقاومة شرسة لدى اقتحامهم العاصمة كييف. مرحلة أولى وعلى الرغم من أن القوات الروسية وصلت بالفعل إلى كييف، إلا أن المحللين العسكريين أكدوا أن الحرب لا تزال في مراحلها الأولى، وتقدر وزارة الدفاع الأميركية (البنتاغون) ما أطلقته روسيا من صواريخ على أوكرانيا بأنه لا يتجاوز 250 صاروخاً منذ بداية الحرب، صباح الخميس الماضي، وهو عدد قليل قياساً بما تمتلكه القوات الروسية المحتشدة على الحدود أو داخل روسيا نفسها. ويرى الخبير العسكري في مركز أبحاث “سي إن إيه” والمتخصص في دراسات الجيش الروسي مايكل كوفمان، أن الروس يقيمون في الأيام الأولى من الهجوم حجم ومساحة المقاومة الأوكرانية، ويخططون بناء على ذلك كيفية تعزيز وحداتهم العسكرية، كما يقيمون كيف يعمل المحور الأولي للهجوم كي يتمكنوا من تحديد أماكن توزيع قواتهم. وبينما تنام العائلات في كييف وخاركيف، أكبر مدينتين في أوكرانيا، في محطات مترو أنفاق كملاجئ من القنابل بعدما ضربت الصواريخ الروسية أهدافاً عسكرية حول المدينتين، لا يتوافر سوى القليل من البيانات المستقلة حول الخسائر المدنية والعسكرية، لكن المحللين العسكريين يقولون إن الروس لم يتبعوا استراتيجية القصف العشوائي بهدف تقليل الخسائر في صفوف المدنيين، مما يشير إلى أن الروس ربما يسعون إلى تقليل الاستياء بين الأوكرانيين في حال سعيهم إلى تنصيب حكومة موالية لهم بعد الإطاحة بالرئيس الأوكراني فولوديمير زيلينسكي إذا ما سقطت العاصمة كييف. دقة الصواريخ غير أن الأمور يمكن أن تسوء بسهولة خلال الأيام القليلة المقبلة، إذ يشير الخبراء إلى أن روسيا نقلت بالفعل أنظمة إطلاق صواريخ متعددة تكفي لإغراق ساحات القتال بآلاف الصواريخ التي يمكن أن تصل إلى ضواحي المدن الأوكرانية الكبرى، وعبر كبير الباحثين في مؤسسة “راند” والمتخصص في دراسة القدرات العسكرية الروسية دارا ماسيكوت، عن قلقه من ارتفاع معدل نفاد ذخائرهم من الصواريخ الموجهة عالية الدقة، مما قد يدفعهم إلى الاعتماد على القنابل غير الموجهة التي ثبت أنها غير دقيقة. ومع تزايد احتمال تحول معركة العاصمة إلى قتال شوارع بين الغزاة الروس والقوات والمواطنين الأوكرانيين، ووزعت وزارة الدفاع الأوكرانية أكثر من 18000 قطعة سلاح هجومية على المواطنين في شوارع كييف، وهو أمر من شأنه أن يدفع الكرملين إلى تعزيز قواته بشكل أكبر ليحقق أهدافه بعدما أدرك أنه ستكون هناك مقاومة أكبر مما توقع الروس في البداية. انتزاع المبادرة وبالنظر إلى التفوق العددي والنوعي في القوات والدبابات والأسلحة، تستعد روسيا لنشر مزيد من القوات على الأرض داخل أوكرانيا في محاولة انتزاع المبادرة مرة أخرى، وتخطط موسكو لنشر الآلاف من مشاة البحرية الموجودين في بحر آزوف في هجوم يستهدف مدينة ماريوبول الساحلية في جنوب شرقي أوكرانيا. ويعتقد الـ “بنتاغون” أن القوات 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مجموعة الأزمة الدولية في واشنطن حذر من صراع طويل وصعب، مشيراً إلى أن موسكو لا تواجه العقوبات الاقتصادية الغربية وحشد قوات الـ “ناتو” في شرق أوروبا وحسب، بل تواجه أيضاً مقاومة أوكرانية شرسة يبدو أنها ستزيد الكلفة التي تدفعها وتضر بسمعتها العالمية وتجعلها في حاجة إلى إقناع شعبها بالهدف الحقيقي وراء هذه الحرب على بلد مجاور يوجد فيه العديد من المواطنين الروس وعدد من الأقارب والأصدقاء. ومن الواضح أن روسيا تواصل هجومها بضربات بعيدة المدى تستهدف الجيش والبنية التحتية الأخرى في مختلف أنحاء أوكرانيا، بما في ذلك بالقرب من كييف والمدن الرئيسة الأخرى مثل ميناء أوديسا على البحر الأسود، وكذلك المراكز الصناعية الشرقية ومدن خاركيف ودنيبرو وماريوبول، كما لم يسلم غرب أوكرانيا، حيث سقطت القنابل في منطقة لفيف وقرب لوتسك، ويستهدف القصف تدمير قدرة الدفاع الجوي الأوكرانية، وربما كان يهدف أيضاً إلى تهديد الأوكرانيين وإثبات التفوق العسكري الهائل لروسيا، وهو ما تشير إليه التقارير مع سقوط مئات القتلى من العسكريين والمدنيين على حد سواء. عواقب احتلال أوكرانيا وإذا كان هدف روسيا هو جعل أوكرانيا منزوعة السلاح ومتوافقة مع موسكو، كما تشير تصريحات بوتين وخطبه، فمن الصعب رؤية كيفية تحقيق هذه الغاية من دون احتلال عسكري، ويشير نشر قوات الحرس الوطني الروسي إلى جانب الوحدات الهجومية على حدود أوكرانيا منذ بداية عام 2022 إلى أن موسكو كانت تستعد لاحتلال أجزاء على الأقل من أوكرانيا، وهو احتلال من المؤكد بمرور الوقت، أنه سيواجه مقاومة وسيكون مكلفاً للغاية، مما قد يدفع موسكو لمحاولة تنصيب حكومة بديلة، لكن إنشاء سلطة حاكمة قادرة على السيطرة على السكان المعادين لها سيكون مكلفاً وصعباً. علاوة على ذلك فإن الشائعات وتقويمات الاستخبارات الأميركية للخطط الروسية لاعتقال وحتى قتل المسؤولين الأوكرانيين وغيرهم تثير مخاوف في شأن الانتهاكات المحتملة للقانون الإنساني الدولي والقانون الدولي لحقوق الإنسان في أوكرانيا الخاضعة للسيطرة الروسية، إذ من المرجح أن يواجه الأشخاص الذين تربطهم صلات بالمنظمات الغربية خطراً متزايداً، وكذلك أولئك المرتبطون بالجماعات والحركات والهويات التي شيطنتها موسكو. وإذا احتلت روسيا معظم أو كل أوكرانيا فيمكن للأوكرانيين أن ينظروا إلى ما حدث في دونيتسك ولوغانسيك لمعرفة مصيرهم المنتظر، إذ من المحتمل أن تواجه أوكرانيا التي تحتلها روسيا عقوبات، مما يعني أن اقتصادها سيتدهور، في حين أن هدف روسيا في أن تكون أوكرانيا الخاضعة لها مزدهرة لن يتحقق، لأن الدعم الذي يمكن أن تحصل عليه من روسيا التي سوف يئن اقتصادها تحت وطأة العقوبات الجديدة سيكون هزيلاً. هل سينجح النظام البديل؟ لاحظت تقارير بحثية أميركية أن الرئيس بوتين اختار مساراً يتميز بالمخاطر وعدم اليقين بالنسبة إلى روسيا، إذ إن السؤال ليس من سيفوز بالحرب في ظل تفوق الجيش الروسي على أوكرانيا، ولكن ما سيحدث بعد الحرب، وكما كانت تجربة الولايات المتحدة في العراق وأفغانستان فإن الإطاحة بحكومة وإنشاء شيء قابل للحياة مكانها شيئان مختلفان تماماً، وسيكون من الصعب إقامة نظام بديل قادر على السيطرة على السكان المعادين في ظل غياب الدعم العسكري الروسي، وحتى لو وسعت تلك الحكومة تكتيكات مكافحة الإرهاب التي يبدو أن موسكو مستعدة لنشرها للقضاء على معارضة مخططاتها، فإن الاحتلال الكامل لأوكرانيا سيكون مكلفاً للغاية. المزيد عن: أوكرانيا \ القوات الروسية \ الغزو الروسي \ مشاة البحرية الأميركية \ الصواريخ الروسية \ فولوديمير زيلينسكي \ قوات الناتو 117 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