هل تستطيع البلاد “استيعاب” مهمة حسن نصر الله الإقليمية الجديدة؟
اندبندنت عربية / طوني بولس @TonyBoulos
بعدما شارف تأليف الحكومة اللبنانية على الانتهاء، عادت الأمور إلى مربعها الأول بسبب تعقيدات إقليمية مستجدة، وأخرى محلية. ففي وقت أعاد مقتل قاسم سليماني حسابات حزب الله في لبنان، برزت أيضاً شروط جديدة لرئيس التيار الوطني الحر الوزير جبران باسيل، ومن خلفه “حزب الله”، الذي بات يدفع حلفاءه لعرقلة مسار التأليف والتريث حتى انقشاع الرؤية الاستراتيجية المناسبة للحزب. ما طرح أسئلة حول إمكانية اعتذار حسان دياب عن مهمته وإمكانية السعي إلى عودة الرئيس سعد الحريري أو البحث عن شخصية جديدة.
انقلاب دياب
وتشير مصادر مقربة من مسار تشكيل الحكومة إلى أن دياب لا يزال متمسكاً بوعود حزب الله والتيار الوطني الحر له بعيد تكليفه بإعطائه هامش تأليف حكومة “تكنوقراط” تضمن التوازنات والحصص الوزارية للتحالف الذي يمتلك الأكثرية النيابية. ورأت المصادر أن دياب يعتبر أنه إذا شكل حكومة ذات طابع “تكنوقراطي” يمكنه تجاوز أزمة الاعتراض في الشارع، كما يستطيع التعاون مع الخارج لتفعيل المساعدات الاقتصادية للبنان.
وتضيف المصادر أنه بعد تغيير حزب الله استراتيجيته الإقليمية لم يعد يقبل إلا بحكومة مواجهة قوية قادرة على تغطيته وإعطائه الشرعية القانونية والدفاع عنه في المحافل الدولية. وهذا أمر لا يستطيع دياب تحمله أمام الشارع اللبناني عامة، والشارع السني خاصة. ما وضعه في مواجهة مع القوى التي أعطته أكثرية 69 صوتاً في المجلس النيابي لتسميته.
وفي المقابل، وفق المصادر نفسها، ظهرت ليونة مشروطة عند حزب القوات اللبنانية والحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي بإمكانية منحه الثقة في حال شكّل حكومة “تكنوقراط” خالية من الأحزاب، الأمر الذي وضعه رئيس الجمهورية ميشال عون وباسيل في خانة الانقلاب السياسي.
فرنسا ترفض شروط باسيل
أشار مصدر دبلوماسي إلى أن دياب تلقى نصائح فرنسية وغربية، لتشكيل حكومة مستقلين تقتصر على “تكنوقراط”، وعدم الرضوخ لمطالب باسيل باستنساخ الحكومة السابقة ومشاركة الأحزاب السياسية تحت مسمى “تكنو سياسية”، داعية إياه إلى الإسراع بتشكيل الحكومة بالقول “وضع لبنان لا يحتمل المماطلة بتأخير تشكيل الحكومة في وقت تتفاقم المشكلات الاقتصادية والتفلت الأمني”.
ورأت المصادر أن حكومة دياب لن تحظى بأي دعم دولي ولن يتم مؤتمر “سيدر” في حال لم تكن وفق المعايير المطلوبة شعبياً ودولياً، مشددة على أن هناك مناخاً غربياً متشدداً مع حزب الله لن يتعاون مع حكومة يكون الحزب ممسكاً بزمام أمورها. وتكشف المصادر أن الغرب يدعم حكومة تطبّق القرارات الدولية، وعلى رأسها القراران 1707 و1559.
حكومة العهد الأولى
مصادر مقربة من التيار الوطني الحر قالت إن التيار كان يعوّل على تأليف حكومة برئاسة دياب واعتبارها حكومة “العهد” الأولى، كون الحكومتين السابقتين لم تلبيا طموح الرئيس والتيار، مشددة على أن جميع المحاولات التي يقوم بها باسيل لتسهيل مهمة دياب فشلت حتى الآن.
وحملت مصادر التيار الرئيس المكلف مسؤولية عدم القدرة على التأليف، نتيجة تشبثه بمواقف شعبوية تهدف إلى استمالة الشارع الرافض لتسميته، ضارباً عرض الحائط بحجم الكتلة النيابية التي يرأسها باسيل ودور رئيس الجمهورية الدستوري في تأليف الحكومات.
“حزب الله” مصدوم
في المقابل، رأى مصدر وزاري أن حزب الله لم يستفق بعد من صدمة اغتيال سليماني، وهذا ما انعكس بوضوح على أدائه حيال تشكيل الحكومة، كاشفاً عن محاولات لدياب الاتصال بحزب الله لاستمزاج رأيه في العقبات الحالية التي تحول دون ولادة الحكومة، وأن عدم وجود رد من الحزب أعطى انطباعاً بأن الحزب في حالة تخبّط بانتظار ما ستقرّره طهران في مواجهتها الإقليمية والدولية.
وأشار المصدر إلى أنه بعيد اغتيال سليماني وضع الحزب في أجواء رد مزلزل على الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، ما استوجب وضع الأذرع الإيرانية في حالة تأهب قصوى، إلا أن الرد الإيراني من خلال استهداف قاعدة عين الأسد في العراق جاء أقل بكثير من توقعات الحزب، ما وضعه في حالة حرج شديدة مع جمهوره، الذي تلقى جرعة إحباط إضافية دفعت البعض إلى توصيف إيران بأنها “نمر كرتوني”.
ويعتبر المصدر أن تراجع حزب الله عن دعم حكومة دياب، التي كانت تقترب من التأليف بغطاء “تكنوقراطي”، جاء نتيجة للإرباك الحاصل في طهران، مشيراً إلى أن هندسة الحكومة في لبنان يجب أن تلاقي التوجه الإيراني.
المرشد يكلف نصر الله قيادة الأذرع
وتشير أوساط سياسية إلى أن الأمين العام لحزب الله حسن نصر الله قد دخل مرحلة جديدة في عمله ضمن المشروع الإيراني الخارجي. “فهو اليوم صار عملياً يمثل الرقم الأول في هذا المشروع، ما يعني أنه أصبح فعلياً الحامل الأول لراية قاسم سليماني من دون منازع”. وتعتبر الأوساط أن مضمون خطابيه الأخيرين يشير بوضوح إلى توجه نصر الله بغطاء من المرشد الإيراني إلى ملء الفراغ الذي نشأ بعد مقتل سليماني.
وتسأل الأوساط عن قدرة لبنان على تحمل إدارة محور “الممانعة” ومغامرات نصر الله الإقليمية من لبنان، في ظل مناخ التشدد الذي يهيمن على الإدارة الأميركية، وسياسة الحزم التي يتبعها الرئيس دونالد ترمب تجاه إيران وأذرعها في الشرق الأوسط، متخوفة من تحول لبنان ساحة صراع مباشرة بين إيران والولايات المتحدة، خصوصاً أن “الأخيرة لديها مع حلفائها قاعدة عسكرية ضخمة في قبرص المجاورة للبنان، وبالتالي حزب الله قد يكون تحت النيران الأميركية المباشرة”.
نحن كلفنا دياب
مصادر حزب الله ترفض الحديث عن ربط مسار تأليف الحكومة بالوضع الإقليمي، معتبرة أن الإخفاق في تشكيل الحكومة يعود إلى رفض الرئيس المكلف إشراك الأحزاب السياسية بشكل مباشر، مشددة على أن المرحلة المقبلة في المنطقة سياسية بامتياز، لذلك “نرى أنه من الضروري أن تتمثل الأحزاب السياسية في الحكومة”.
وأكدت المصادر أن حزب الله هو من المسهلين لمهمة دياب، قائلة “نحن من جاء به لرئاسة الحكومة، وعليه أن يلتزم المعايير التي تطالب بها الأكثرية النيابية، وإلا لن تأخذ حكومته الثقة”.
المزيد عن: لبنان/الهلال المنتفض/حسان دياب/حزب الله/جبران باسيل
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