خطة عسكرية جديدة وضعها رئيس الأركان افيف كوخافي
دخلت الأجهزة الأمنية الإسرائيلية والمؤسسة السياسية في حال تأهب وانعقاد دائم، للتعامل مع تسارع الأحداث في غزة، بعد التطورات التي شهدتها ليلة السبت- الأحد، وتهديدات المتحدث باسم حركة حماس، فوزي برهوم، حول تفجير الأوضاع الأمنية “إذا ما استمر العدوان الإسرائيلي على القطاع، بعد تصفية ثلاثة شبان فلسطينيين”.
وكان التصعيد وصل إلى ذروته بعد إطلاق قذائف من غزة باتجاه إسرائيل، ومن ثم قتل ثلاثة شبان غزيين عند الحدود. وبحسب ادعاء الجيش الإسرائيلي، فإن أجهزة الرصد عاينت فلسطينيين مسلحين ببنادق كلاشنيكوف وقنابل يدوية وقاذفات “آر بي جي” وصلوا إلى السياج الحدودي جنوب قطاع غزة، وحاول أحدهم تجاوز السياج عندما أُطلقت النيران باتجاههم، ما أدى إلى استشهادهم.
هذا التسارع في التصعيد الأمني دفع الأجهزة الأمنية إلى عقد اجتماعات متواصلة لبحث كيفية التعامل مع هذا التوتّر، في ظل الأصوات الإسرائيلية، سواء من بلدات الجنوب الإسرائيلي أو قيادات الأحزاب المتنافسة في الانتخابات، الداعية إلى شن حملة عسكرية فورية وقوية تقضي على البنى التحتية لحماس.
ووفق الخطة العسكرية الجديدة، التي وضعها رئيس أركان الجيش افيف كوخافي، والتي جعل من الحدود الجنوبية تجاه غزة أولوية في العمليات العسكرية، فإن التخوف من تصعيد أمني مفاجئ يزداد لدى جهات إسرائيلية، ترفض هذا التوجه.
فكوخافي، على عكس سابقيه، على قناعة بأن الأمن الإسرائيلي يتطلب أولاً ضمان هدوء بلدات الجنوب وسكانها، إذ الخطر أكبر عليهم من سكان الشمال، سواء البلدات المقابلة للحدود مع الجنوب اللبناني أو المستوطنات المقابلة والمحاذية لسوريا.
التهدئة قابلة للانهيار
في أول تقديرات للأجهزة الأمنية الإسرائيلية، باتت التهدئة قابلة للانهيار، على عكس ما أشار إليه التقرير الأخير لها، الشهر الماضي، أن التهدئة التي توصّلت إليها إسرائيل مع حركة حماس غير قابلة للمس. كما اختلفت التقديرات السابقة بأن العمليات التي نُفذت سواء عبر الجدار أو إطلاق صواريخ كانت فردية. وبتقدير الأجهزة الأمنية، فإن حركة حماس تقف وراء هذه العمليات، وبيان المتحدث باسم الحركة اليوم يؤكد ذلك.
وبحسب التقديرات الجديدة، فإن وقوع حدث آخر يؤدي إلى إصابات أو قتلى أو دمار في الجانب الإسرائيلي، ستخرج الخطة الجديدة تجاه غزة إلى حيز التنفيذ.
السنوار الصقري
في تقاريرها تجاه حماس، تحرص إسرائيل على تحليل شخصية القيادي الذي تعتبره المحرك والمخطط للعمليات ضد إسرائيل. وترى تل أبيب أن رئيس الحركة يحيى السنوار يختلف عن شخصيات أخرى في الحركة. وبحسب ما كُتب في التقرير عنه، “السنوار المعروف بصقوريته تجاه إسرائيل، غير معني اليوم بكسر التهدئة لأنه وضع على رأس اهتماماته تحسين الأوضاع الاقتصادية في قطاع غزة”.
ويضيف التقرير “في ظل التدهور الأخير والأصوات العالية تجاه حماس، الداعية إلى استمرار إطلاق الصواريخ، قد يخضع السنوار فإما يتراجع أو يجلس بصمت”.
غزة في أولويات كوخافي
التقرير الذي نُشر في إسرائيل حول تقديرات الأجهزة الأمنية، تطرّق إلى سياسة رئيس الأركان الحالي افيف كوخافي، الذي عمل منذ توليه هذا المنصب على تغيير أولويات الخطط العسكرية. فبعدما كانت تركز على التموضع الإيراني في سوريا وكشف أنفاق حزب الله وحماس، أصبحت أولويات هذه الخطط “الاستعداد لمواجهة عسكرية في قطاع غزّة”.
وسبق أن كشف الخبير العسكري ليف رام عن أن أجهزة الاستخبارات وضعت “خطة هجومية على رأس أولوياتها للقضاء على المخزون الصاروخي لحماس”، مشيراً إلى أن “تقديرات الجيش الإسرائيلي ترجّح تقدماً كبيراً على صعيد إنهاء الخطة واحتمالات تنفيذها”.
وترى أجهزة الاستخبارات أن إلحاق الضرر، على الأقل، بالمخزون الصاروخي لحماس يضعف الحركة ويكون بداية للقضاء على البنى التحتية لها.
أما الجيش، فيتوقّع أنّ تنفيذ هذه الخطة سيجعله قادراً، في حال وقوع حرب مع غزة، على عرقلة الخطط العسكرية التي تضعها الحركة في كل ما يتعلق باستهداف مناطق استراتيجية وحساسة في إسرائيل وإلحاق أضرار بها، إلى جانب إلحاق أضرار بأملاك السكان وبصحتهم.
ونقلت وسائل إعلام عن ضابط كبير في شعبة الاستخبارات في الجيش الإسرائيلي، أن بنك الأهداف تضاعف في قطاع غزة، خلال الشهرين الأخيرين، لتحدد ما اعتبرها “عنق الزجاجة”، في مشروع إنتاج الصواريخ”.
“زخم” كوخافي
قبل حوالى شهرين، كُشف عن خطة كوخافي الذي عرضها على المؤسسة العسكرية وأجهزة الاستخبارات تحت عنوان “زخم”، وهي الخطة التي رسم فيها استراتيجيته للمواجهات العسكرية تجاه لبنان وسوريا وغزة.
واللافت فيها أنه وضع غزة كخطر أكبر على إسرائيل، في المدى القريب، ليرفع خطط جيشه العسكرية تجاه غزة على رأس أولوياته، لكنه في الوقت ذاته، أبقى لبنان وسوريا ملفَّيْن ساخنَيْن، خصوصاً لدى تطرّقه إلى بعض تفاصيل خطة حربه تجاه لبنان.
وفي جانب من خطته العسكرية، وضع في مضامينها عوامل مشتركة بين غزة ولبنان، فمنح الضوء الأخضر للجيش لقتل مدنيين في أي حرب على الجبهتين، في عمليات تُدرج ضمن “جرائم الحرب”. كما رفع كوخافي بنك أهداف جيشه في الحرب.
ويشير خبراء إلى أن خطته أصابته بحالة هوس، فهي لا تتناول إبادة العدو العسكري، بل أيضاً استهداف مدنيين في قطاع غزة ولبنان. وتختلف خطة كوخافي عن خطة رئيس أركان الجيش السابق غادي أيزنكوت، التي كانت تهدف إلى تعزيز سلاح البرية وقدرة الردع وتنفيذ عملية عسكرية، غايتها ضرب قدرات العدو، مثل الغارات المتتالية ضد مواقع لإيران وحزب الله في سوريا. أما خطة كوخافي الجديدة، فترمي بشكل واضح إلى إبادة منهجية للعدو والوحدات المقاتلة.
واللافت في خطة كوخافي، تلك العنجهية لدى القيادة العسكرية الإسرائيلية، إذ يتحدث عن خطط تأتي الضربة القاضية في الجولة الأولى منها، ما يعني تصفية جسدية عنيفة، خلال وقت قصير بوتيرة مئات القتلى يومياً. وستتولى مهمة التدمير، وحدة عسكرية تدخل مواقع تابعة لحزب الله، كإنجاز مطلوب، وهذا الجانب من الخطة ينطبق على غزة أيضاً.
وتطالب خطة كوخافي الحكومة بعدم التدخل في مجرى الحرب بعد اتخاذ قرار بشنّها، ومما جاء في الخطة عدم التدخل السياسي في الحرب من قبل الحكومة الإسرائيلية، لأنّ ذلك سيتسبّب بفقدانها مفعولها. واستكمال المهمة مشروط بممارسة قوة كبيرة ثابتة لفترة من الزمن، وإلا فإن الإنجاز المطلوب، أي تدمير فعلي لقوة العدو الأساسية، لن يتحقق.
ويصف كوخافي حركة حماس وحزب الله بـ”الجيوش الإرهابية”، أي ليسا منظمات أو ميليشيات. وبحسب قوله، فإنّ “الفجوة بين حماس وحزب الله تتضاءل، لأن العدو يواصل تطوير واستغلال أفضلياته النسبية في مجال الاحتماء بالمدنيين والاختفاء تحت الأرض، ويبني قوة هجومية، ويحسّن كميات القذائف الصاروخية ودقتها ويستخدم أسلحة جديدة نسبياً، مثل الطائرات الصغيرة المسيّرة والطائرات من دون طيار”.
المزيد عن: غزة/اسرائيل/حماس/الحدود
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