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صمود جنبلاط أعاد رسم الخطوط الحمر / بقلم علي الأمين

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نداء الوطن اللبنانية / علي الأمين

الضوء الأخضر لعودة “حكومة الى العمل” الى العمل، أُشعل بعد توقف قسري دام نحو شهر ونصف الشهر، الحكاية باتت شبه معروفة، قنوات التواصل عادت بسحر ساحر بين الرئيسين ميشال عون ونبيه بري، جرى الاتفاق على المصالحة في قصر بعبدا بحضور رئيس “الاشتراكي” وليد جنبلاط والنائب طلال أرسلان، فيما ألغى الأخير مؤتمراً صحافيا كان يريد عقده قبل اجراء المصالحة، وعلى رغم الحاحه فان رئيس الجمهورية وبمعاونة “حزب الله” اقنعاه بعدم التصريح قبل لقاء المصالحة في بعبدا. أمّا مبادرة الحل التي طرحها أمس الرئيس سعد الحريري فأغلق جنبلاط الباب في وجهها لأنها “غير مطمئنة”، ولا تنطوي على ضمانة بعدم طرح قضية قبرشمون في مجلس الوزراء.

بعد خيبة الحريري من الموقف الجنبلاطي المتوقع، كانت الورقة التالية أو “كلمة السر” للحل تخرج من حارة حريك باتجاه عين التينة. المطلوب تجاوز العقد أمام انعقاد جلسة مجلس الوزراء، وبدء جلسات مجلس الوزراء، وهذا كان ايذاناً بإدارة محركات مبادرة بري، الذي كان أعلن الأربعاء عبر النائب علي بزي أنه أوقفها، بعدما قال رئيس الجمهورية لزواره ما قاله بشأن حادثة البساتين التي كانت كميناً معدّاً للوزير جبران باسيل.

في رسالة نشرتها وكالة فارس الايرانية امس (الجمعة)، موجهة من أمين المجلس القومي الإيراني علي شمخاني الى الأمين العام لـ”حزب الله” السيد حسن نصرالله بمناسبة حرب الـ 2006، جاء فيها: أنّ “صدق وشجاعة وبصيرة سماحة السيد حسن نصرالله، كانت عاملًا حاسماً في حركة ودور “حزب الله” في خلق الوحدة الوطنية في داخل لبنان والأمن والاستقرار في حدود هذا البلد”. وإزاء التنبيه الذي حمله بيان سفارة الولايات المتحدة الأميركية لجهة عدم تسييس القضاء، وعن توقعها “أن تتعامل مع هذا الأمر بطريقة تحقق العدالة من دون تأجيج نعرات طائفية ومناطقية بخلفيات سياسية”.

المظلة الإقليمية الدولية في لبنان، وجّهت رسائل تهدئة وضبط، وصلت لرئيس الجمهورية ولـ”حزب الله” بالدرجة الأولى، وهو ما دفع الأخير الى الايعاز الى بري بتخريج الحل، وكان “حزب الله” قد استبق ايعازه بإبلاغ أرسلان السير في ما يطرحه بري، خصوصاً بعدما قبل جنبلاط باجراء المصالحة وعقد جلسة لمجلس الوزراء من دون بحث قضية قبرشمون.

فصل جديد يجري طيّه لبدء العمل الحكومي، شكّل في جوهره اختباراً للحركة السياسية في لبنان من جهة، ولحدود استمرار المظلة الإقليمية الدولية للاستقرار فيه من جهة أخرى، وهي المظلة التي تستند الى استقرار الحدود جنوباً، وضبط ملف اللجوء السوري في لبنان. وهما صك التأمين الذي على أساسه يُبنى الموقف الأوروبي والأميركي من المعادلة السياسية الحاكمة. ولأن الأثقال المالية والاقتصادية، جعلت لبنان عرضة لانهيار اجتماعي، عند ايّ اختبار جدي لتماسك الحكومة أو أي أزمة سياسية أو طائفية، بات من الضروري أن يجري لجم مسار الأزمة، لذا المصالح الخارجية لم تكن متوافقة مع مسارات التصعيد الداخلي، التوقيت لم يكن ملائماً، وكاد يخرج عن الإيقاع الذي تسير عليه “سياسة التململ والازعاج” التي تعتمدها طهران للردّ على العقوبات الأميركية، وسياسة واشنطن التي تحاذر الوقوع في حرب.

صمود وليد جنبلاط أمام حملة الضغوط التي مورست عليه، حالت دون الاستمرار في عملية حصاره واضعافه، وعامل الوقت كان لمصلحته، بعدما نجح بحدود ما في نقل المواجهة من الدائرة الدرزية الى دائرة وطنية، عبّر عنه التفاف العديد من القيادات السياسية حول موقفه مما جرى في “حادثة البساتين”.

لم ينته الحساب السياسي بالطبع، طالما أن التربص مستمر، في ظل انعدام الثقة المتبادلة بين الأطراف المعنية في هذه الأزمة، فالحلّ فرضته موازين قوى لا يبدو أنّ ثباتها سيستمر طويلاً، فخيار التفجير في لبنان وقلب المعادلات السياسية، يقع ضمن الحسابات الايرانية، كإحدى أوراق القوة الايرانية في هذا البلد وعلى حدود اسرائيل، واذا كانت واشنطن مستمرة في السير في طريق العقوبات كبديل عن الحرب العسكرية، فان ايران لن تبقى مكتوفة الايدي أمام خنقها مالياً واقتصادياً، وسترد عسكرياً في حال لم ينجح مشروع العودة للتفاوض مع اميركا.

الاختبار اللبناني من خلال ما أحاط بقضية قبرشمون، كشف حتى الآن، رسم خطوط حمر في المعادلة الداخلية (وليد جنبلاط واحد منها على الأقل) فرضتها المظلة الإقليمية والدولية على لبنان، هذه الخطوط لم تكن لترسم، من دون المعركة السياسية التي خاضها جنبلاط، في مواجهة عملية قضم نفوذ زعامته وتطويع خطابه المستمر منذ الانتخابات النيابية العام 2018 على الأقل.

 

 

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