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Home » جهاد الزين: واشنطن “تُسلِّم” أفغانستان إلى “طالبان” ضد إيران والصين؟

جهاد الزين: واشنطن “تُسلِّم” أفغانستان إلى “طالبان” ضد إيران والصين؟

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أميركا متمرّسة في تغيير اتجاه أعدائها: اليابان بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية ثم فييتنام الشيوعية وها هو دور “طالبان” ومن يدري ربما إيران الخمينية الخائفة من تبعات التفاهم مع الولايات المتحدة وعدم قدرة نظامها المتشدّد أيديولوجياً على تحمّل تبعات هذا التفاهم؟

 

النهار اللبنانية \ جهاد الزين

ثمة مؤشرات عديدة إلى أن نمط الانسحاب العسكري الأميركي من أفغانستان والجاري حاليا على قدم وساق والمفترض حسب البرنامج الرسمي أن يكتمل يوم 11 أيلول 2021 أي حين يكون قد مر عشرون عاما بالضبط على مجازر 11 أيلول المريعة في الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، ثمة مؤشرات أن هذا الانسحاب يحمل معه عناصر قد تجعله شبيها من وجوه عديدة بالانسحاب العسكري الأميركي من فييتنام عام 1973. فهل سنشهد عملية تسليم “ديفاكتو” أميركية لأفغانستان التي ستصبح مركزا تحت حكم حركة طالبان على المدى الأبعد؟

سقطت سايغون بيد قوات فييتنام الشمالية خلال أقل من عامين بعد الانسحاب الأميركي. وسقط معها النظام الموالي لواشنطن بعد أن فرّ من استطاع من قادته ومؤيديه في تلك اللقطات الشهيرة للهروب الكبير في نيسان عام 1975. قاتل جيش فييتنام الجنوبية لأشهر قوات الفييتكونغ الشيوعية ولكنه انهار بعد ذلك ودخلت القوات الشيوعية سايغون وأعلنت توحيد الدولتين في دولة واحدة.

هل سنكون أمام سيناريو شبيه تسقط فيه كابول لاحقا؟

أولا: لا يخفي الأميركيون أن هذا الانسحاب من أفغانستان يتم بناءً على اتفاق مع حركة “طالبان”. ويلفت النظرَ تشديدُ القادة العسكريين الأميركيين على تعهّد “طالبان” بحماية القوات الأميركية خلال الانسحاب. فهل هذا يعني تسليماً ضمنيا بأن “طالبان” هي القوة الأفغانية العسكرية الرئيسية التي يتعاملون معها حين تكون القوات الحكومية الأفغانية التي أشرفوا لسنوات على تدريبها وتسليحها عاجزةً عن حماية حتى انسحابهم فكيف بعد الانسحاب؟

حقّقت قوات “طالبان” المقدّرة حسب الفورين أفيرز” في ربيع هذا العام بين ستين إلى ثمانين ألف مقاتل مقابل جيش الحكومة الذي يفوقهم عدداً ولكنه غير متماسك في العديد من قطاعاته خصوصا بعيداً عن العاصمة كابول كما أظهرت هجوماتُ “طالبان” في العامين الأخيرين ولاسيما في محيط مدينة قندهار التي تعتبر الثانية من حيث الأهمية بعد كابول. حتى هناك بين المعلقين الأميركيين من يشكّك بمدى جاهزية “تحالف الشمال” الشهير المعادي تقليديا ل “طالبان” للقتال الفعّال بعد انسحاب الأميركيين؟

ثانيا : هل نكون إذن أمام عملية انتقال تاريخية ستنشأ خلالها دولة “طالبان” الثانية هذه المرة ولكن بالاتفاق وربما برعاية بعيدة المدى من واشنطن نفسها؟

السؤال المباشر هنا فيما الأميركيون يخفِّفون حضورهم في منطقة الشرق الأوسط هل يهدفون إلى المساعدة على وجود دولة معادية لإيران وعلى حدود إيران المباشرة في المنطقة حتى لو حصل اتفاقٌ بين واشنطن وطهران على الملف النووي؟ بل ربما بسبب الفراغ الذي يمكن أن يحصل في المحيط الإقليمي بعد الاتفاق فيكون استلام “طالبان” لكابول هو أول وأكبر ترتيب أميركي للجم الاندفاعة الجيواستراتيجية الإيرانية التي يمكن أن تستفيد منها طهران بعد الاتفاق النووي وهي إيران في هذه الحالة التي ستكون قد حصلت على رفع العقوبات عنها ومستعيدةً بالتالي لقدرات اقتصادية ؟

لعبة شطرنج كبيرة لا بد أنها تجري مع وبعد و حول الانسحاب العسكري الأميركي من أفغانستان؟ هل تترك واشنطن أفغانستان لقمة سائغة للصين التي تربطها مع شمال أفغانستان حدود برية لا تتجاوز الستة وسبعين كيلومترا ولكنها عظيمة الأهمية الاستراتيجية ؟ طبعاً لن تتركها لربما يكرر التاريخ نفسه أيضا هنا عندما نشأ لاحقاً نوعٌ من الصراع الصيني الفييتنامي على بسط النفوذ في جنوب شرق آسيا وتحديداً في كمبوديا ولاوس. واليوم بعد نصف قرن مع علاقات أميركية فيتنامية وثيقة اقتصادياً لا تنظر الصين بارتياح إلى سعي الولايادات المتحدة لصيغ تجميع دول شرق آسيا في منظمات تعاون اقتصادي وتفضّل عليها ما بات يُعرف بصيغة العلاقات الثنائية بين بكين وكل واحدة من دول محيطها على حدة. هذا ما يُجمع عليه الكثير من خبراء السياسة الصينية من أستراليا جنوباً إلى اليابان شمالاً.

⁃ فهل تنشأ مع احتمال سيطرة “طالبان” على أفغانستان دولة أصولية على حدود إقليم سينكيانج الصيني حيث أقلية “الإيغور” التركية إثنياً و المسلمة السنية ذات النزوع المعادي لسيطرة بكين الشيوعي

⁃ وهل تنشأ مع احتمال سيطرة “طالبان” على أفغانستان دولة سنية أصولية تواجه إيران الشيعية الأصولية؟

كما نرى من المضمون الذي تنطوي عليه هذه الأسئلة أن هوامش التحرك الأميركي ليست ضيقة في انتهاج سياسة توافق مع “طالبان” تخدم مصالحها في عملية نقل تركيزها على منطقة شرق آسيا بسبب الأولوية الصينية الناشئة اقتصاديا بالنسبة لواشنطن، دعكَ من الادعاءات الأيديولوجية في محاربة الأصوليات أمام متطلبات السياسات الواقعية.

الصين تحتفل بمرور مائة عام على تأسيس الحزب الشيوعي الصيني بلهجة انتصارية على أعلى مستوى.

حتى الآن خدمت الحركات الإسلامية الأصولية الاستراتيجيات الأميركية منذ الحرب الباردة وبعدها أكثر مما شكّلت أذى لها. وكان صعود الوعي الأصولي أحد فكّي الكماشة الذي أطبق على أو ساهم في انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي. حتى التحليل السائد لمجازر 11 أيلول يعتبرها ذلك الإرهاب الذي كشفت عنه، نوعاً من خروج الوحش عن السيطرة، الوحش الذي ساهمت الولايات المتحدة في إطلاقه..

أميركا متمرّسة في تغيير أعدائها: اليابان بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية ثم فييتنام الشيوعية وها هو دور “طالبان” ومن يدري ربما إيران الخمينية الخائفة من تبعات التفاهم مع الولايات المتحدة وعدم قدرة نظامها المتشدّد أيديولوجياً على تحمّل تبعات هذا التفاهم؟

لقد غزت أميركا أفغانستان لتقتلع “طالبان” حليفة “القاعدة”. وها هي تتركها في عهد رئيس محنّك يعيد البراغماتية الأميركية إلى عهد مزدهر هو الرئيس جو بايدن.

هل الأجراس الحمراء تقرع في طهران منذرةً بخطرٍ ما من جهة الوضع الجديد في أفغانستان؟ ماذا تخطِّط طهران إذن لدعم الحكومة الحالية المعادية ل”طالبان” فلا تنهار مثلما انهارت دولة فييتنام الجنوبية؟

علامات الاستفهام كثيرة لكن المشهد العسكري الأفغاني قد ينبئ بتصدعات كثيرة تجعل البلد بين حدّي الحرب الأهلية على النمط السوري إذا قرّر بعض القوى الإقليمية انتزاع مناطق نفوذ والحد الثاني تقدم سريع ومتدرج لقوات “طالبان” .

في أي سيناريو يبقى السؤال نفسه: متى تسيطر “طالبان” على كابول؟

j.elzein@hotmail.com

Twitter: @ j_elzein

 

 

 

 

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