لندن تتعرض لضغوطات داخلية وخارجية منذ اندلاع أزمة السفن
اندبندنت عربية / وليد فارس الأمين العام للمجموعة الأطلسية النيابية @WalidPhares
خلّفت حادثة اختطاف الحرس الثوري الإيراني ناقلة نفط بريطانية في منطقة الخليج تساؤلات كبيرة لدى المراقبين والمحللين حول السياسة البريطانية المتجددة تجاه طهران.
من الواضح على الأقل في واشنطن أن لندن تتعرّض لضغوطات داخلية وخارجية منذ اندلاع أزمة السفن، لتعديل سياستها حيال طهران لا سيما بعد تصاعد المواجهة بين أميركا والتحالف العربي من ناحية وإيران وجماعاتها من ناحية ثانية.
ولا بد من الإشارة إلى أن إدارة الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترمب قامت بجهود كبيرة لتغيير السياسة الأميركية التي كان الرئيس السابق باراك أوباما قد اتبعها حيال إيران، وكما يعلم الجميع فإن التغيير الكبير بدأ مع زيارة ترمب إلى العاصمة السعودية ولقائه الزعماء العرب وتركيزه على ضرورة عزل إيران وجماعاتها كحزب الله على وجه الخصوص، واستكملت الإدارة الأميركية عملية التغيير بالانسحاب من الاتفاق النووي، وإدراج الحرس الثوري على لائحة الإرهاب، وفرض عقوبات لا مثيل لها استهدفت شرايين النظام الاقتصادية كافة، والدفع بتعزيزات عسكرية كبيرة إلى الخليج.
بالتزامن مع التدابير الأميركية، استمرّت بريطانيا في سياستها القائمة منذ أيام أوباما، والتزمت الاتفاق النووي، ولم تمتثل للتغيير الأميركي، وأرادت الحفاظ على أوروبيتها بالتنسيق مع ألمانيا وفرنسا للبقاء ضمن الاتفاق النووي مع طهران، لكن إدارة ترمب لم تستكِن، وضغطت دبلوماسياً وكلامياً على الحكومة البريطانية أثناء المرحلة الانتقالية، خصوصاً على المرشحين المحافظين لرئاسة الحكومة كالوزير بوريس جونسون للعمل على تغيير سياسة بريطانيا تجاه إيران.
في المرحلة التي تلت الانسحاب الأميركي من الاتفاق النووي، تولّدت قناعة لدى المراقبين في واشنطن تفيد بأن المؤسسات البريطانية ستعمل على تأخير تغيّر سياسة لندن حيال طهران لناحية السير بالموقف الأميركي نتيجة ثقل اللوبي الإيراني في بريطانيا، والاستثمارات المالية ومصالح الشركات، وخرج إلى العلن عامل غير محسوب تمثل في قطر التي عملت على الدفع باتجاه استمرار السياسية البريطانية ضمن الاتفاق النووي مستغلة مركزها واستثماراتها الهائلة في العاصمة لندن، وهذا ما كان مفاجئاً بالنسبة إلى الإدارة في واشنطن.
مرحلة الانتقال الحكومي، والأحداث الأخيرة باتت تؤثر في موقف لندن، فحادثة جبل طارق ثم قرصنة السفينة التي كانت تحمل العلم البريطاني، وإظهار إيران الموضوع وكأنه انكسار للندن عبر بثّ صور دعائية لعمليات إنزال وسيطرة، عوامل أسهمت في حشر صنّاع السياسة البريطانية ووضعت ضغوطاً هائلة على الحكومة المقبلة.
بالتالي فإن بريطانيا ستعمل على الردّ على التحدّي الإيراني من موقعين، أولاً، تهديد طهران بأعمال دفاعية بما فيها نشر قطع بحرية إلى جانب الأسطول الأميركي، والثاني القيام بخطوة دبلوماسية واسعة لإقناع إيران بعدم تنفيذ اعتداءات لأن ذلك سيلزم الأوروبيين بردٍ قاس.
عملياً على أرض الواقع، لندن أصبحت ملزمة بتغيير موقفها والاقتراب من الموقف الأمني الأميركي على أقل تقدير لردع الممارسات الإيرانية من دون أن يقود ذلك إلى مواجهة عسكرية مفتوحة، ولكن هذا التغيير بحد ذاته سيدفع إيران إلى اتخاذ موقف عدواني، وبالتالي فإن الانغماس البريطاني والتعاون الأمني مع أميركا ودول الخليج، سيحفّز إيران على التصعيد ضد المصالح البريطانية خصوصاً في حال استمرت بتعنّتها ورفضت الدخول في مفاوضات من أجل التوصل إلى تسوية جديدة.
من المؤكد أن الحكومة الانتقالية ستقوم بإعادة حسابات شاملة لثمن الاستمرار بالاتفاق النووي مع إيران، وهذا سيكون له تأثير في الرأي العام في الداخل لا سيما أن بريطانيا تبدو كأنها استُضعفت من قبل نظام آية الله.
وبالنظر إلى تسلسل الأحداث بين طهران ولندن، فإن القيادة الإيرانية باتت في طور إقامة توازن إستراتيجي عبر عرض عضلات في الخليج، وسيكون لهذا الأمر تأثير سلبي في الانتشار البريطاني في الخليج، أما بريطانيا فأصبحت الآن في منتصف الطريق وأمامها خياران، إما الالتحاق بأميركا لعزل النظام، أو الالتزام بالاتفاق النووي.
ويبقى الالتزام البريطاني بالاتفاق النووي معرضاً للاهتزاز في حال حدوث أي خرق إيراني للخطوط الحمر، أو ظهور تقييم يسلّط الضوء على مستقبل إيران ومرحلة ما بعد إضعاف النظام الحالي، لأن السؤال الكبير سيكون عندها ماذا يفيد لندن أكثر… إيران الحالية المترهلة، أم إيران المقبلة؟
المزيد عن: التوتر في الخليج/الولايات المتحدة/دونالد ترمب
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