كورونا تفتح استراتيجية جديدة أمام إسرائيل
على قدر ما تنشغل إسرائيل داخلياً، في كيفية مواجهة انتشار كورونا ومنع انهيار صحي واقتصادي، يضع استراتيجيون وخبراء، بالتعاون مع معاهد أبحاث، خططاً استراتيجية تعتمد على كيفية استغلال تداعيات الوباء، وما يمكن لإسرائيل استغلاله على صعيدي، الشرق الأوسط والعالم لتسيير مصالحها الاستراتيجية والأمنية وحتى الاقتصادية.
ويركز الإسرائيليون انشغالهم في كيفية استغلال الوضع الحالي في استمرارية التعامل مع الملف الإيراني عموماً والحدود الشمالية، تجاه سوريا خصوصاً.
ويأتي هذا الانشغال في أعقاب صمت القيادة الإسرائيلية حول تقرير كشف أن الولايات المتحدة حذرت تل أبيب، قبل أكثر من ثلاثة أشهر من خطر انتشار واسع لفيروس كورونا ينطلق من الصين ويصل حتى إسرائيل.
وبحسب تقارير محلية فإن المؤسسة الاستخباراتية الأميركية على معرفة بالمرض قبل انتشاره في ووهان وصاغت وثيقة سرية، قررت الإدارة الأميركية، في ما بعد، اطلاع حلفائها على هذه الوثيقة: الناتو وإسرائيل، وتحديداً الجيش الإسرائيلي.
وكشفت تقارير أن مسؤولين عسكريين في تل ابيب ناقشوا احتمال انتشار الفيروس في المنطقة وكيفية تأثيره في إسرائيل والدول المجاورة. وأن المعلومات وصلت إلى صناع القرار ووزارة الصحية، لكن من دون أن يتم فعل أي شيء.
اتفاق النفط والملف الإيراني
تجاهل إسرائيل لميثاق الاستخبارات الأميركية حول انتشار الفيروس، ينعكس هذه الأيام، مع الانشغال الكبير في كيفية استغلال التداعيات الدولية للوباء لمصالح استراتيجية وأمنية إسرائيلية.
ويرى معهد أبحاث الأمن القومي أن اتفاق خفض إنتاج النفط، الذي تشكل روسيا طرفاً مركزياً فيه، يتيح لإسرائيل إمكانية استغلال الوضع لإعادة طرح الملف الإيراني على رأس جدول الأعمال الدولية.
وبحسب ما ورد في بحث خاص حول الموضوع فإن هناك العديد من العوامل التي قد تهدد تنفيذ الاتفاق بحيث الثقة بين الأطراف منخفضة، الاتفاقات غير حازمة وهناك إغراء كبير للانتهاكات والتخفيض ليس كبيراً بما فيه الكفاية، بخاصة إذا استمر الطلب بالتقلص.
ويضيف معهد الأبحاث الإسرائيلي “توضح التطورات في سوق النفط، منذ مطلع الشهر الماضي، أن الأزمة تدفع الدول إلى إجراء تغييرات استراتيجية في ما يتعلق بسياساتها السابقة. ستكون هناك تداعيات للتقارب النسبي بين موسكو وواشنطن، على إسرائيل، سواء التحديات أو الفرص الجديدة. فإذا ما تحققت التسوية التدريجية للتوتر الأميركي – الروسي، يمكن لإسرائيل أن تحاول إعادة القضية الإيرانية، بأبعادها المختلفة، إلى صدارة جدول أعمال الدول العظمى والتأثير عليها من خلال خطوات سياسية وعسكرية، بالأساس في الساحة الشمالية”.
من جهة أخرى، يوضح معهد الأبحاث أن “انشغال إدارة ترمب في الساحة الداخلية، عشية الانتخابات الرئاسية، قد يمنح موسكو قدراً أكبر من الأمن في الشرق الأوسط، بشكل يتحدى حرية العمليات الإسرائيلية في الساحة الشمالية”. وفي هذا الجانب تدعو جهات أمنية إسرائيلية إلى ضرورة بلورة خطة استراتيجية لمواجهة مثل هذا السيناريو.
الامتناع عن التصعيد
بحسب معاهد الأبحاث في تل أبيب، فإن أزمة كورونا ستسهم في تفاقم المشكلات الأساسية في الشرق الأوسط، واستئناف مظاهر الاحتجاج التي ميزت المنطقة عام 2019 وتوقفت مع بداية انتشار الفيروس.
وورد في أحد التقارير أن كافة مراكز القوى في المنطقة ستسعى إلى الامتناع عن التصعيد.
في جانب آخر من التقرير، يجري التركيز حول تداعيات الفوارق في مواجهة تفشي الفيروس. وبتقدير الإسرائيليين ستستخدم ايران ومصر والأردن والعراق ودول الخليج أجهزة الأمن القومي لديها وستنجح بمساعدة صينية كبيرة في التصدي للوباء.
وسيحدث ذلك أيضاً في قطاع غزة، ومناطق السلطة الفلسطينية في الضفة الغربية، ومناطق الحرب في اليمن وليبيا وسوريا، من الممكن أن تنشأ أزمة إنسانية واسعة النطاق.
وباستخلاض الإسرائيليين لمثل هذا السيناريو سيكون من السهل على الأسرة الدولية تجاهل الخطوات الاستفزازية الإيرانية في المجال النووي. وذلك في أعقاب السيطرة التي ستكون للصين وروسيا وتبني الفكرة المبدئية التي في أساس النظام غير الليبرالي حول سيادة الدول والامتناع عن التدخل في نطاقها.
وفي واحد من السيناريوهات التي تتوقعها معاهد الأبحاث الإسرائيلية، عدم إمكانية السيطرة على تفشي كورونا قبل سنة ونصف السنة وحتى سنتين، حيث إمكانية تطوير اللقاح.
وبحسب الإسرائيليين فإن كافة اللاعبين الدوليين سيخرجون من الأزمة متضررين وسيتطور النظام العالمي إلى الفوضى. وورد في البحث الاسرائيلي أن “الولايات المتحدة ستفقد مكانتها العالمية وستطلق في داخلها أصوات تشكك بجدوى الإطار الفيدرالي والحاجة له. ومع ذلك، فإن الصين وروسيا أيضا لن تتمكنا من الانتعاش من الأزمة”.
المزيد عن: كورونا/تقارير/الولايات المتحدة/تفشي الوباء
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