The Washington institute \ سايمون هندرسون
سايمون هندرسون هو زميل بيكر في معهد واشنطن ومدير برنامج الخليج وسياسة الطاقة في المعهد، ومتخصص في شؤون الطاقة والدول العربية المحافظة في الخليج الفارسي.
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أعلنت وزارة حماية البيئة الإسرائيلية أنها ستؤجل السماح لدولة الإمارات باستخدام خط أنابيب النفط من ميناء “إيلات” على البحر الأحمر إلى ساحل البحر المتوسط، بسبب تقييم غير كافٍ للمخاطر. وقد تؤدي المناوشات البيروقراطية في الحكومة الإسرائيلية إلى عرقلة علاقات إسرائيل المتنامية مع دولة الإمارات.
في 25 تموز/يوليو، أعلنت وزارة حماية البيئة الإسرائيلية أنها ستؤجل تطبيق عنصر أساسي من “اتفاقيات أبراهيم” لعام 2020 وهو السماح لدولة الإمارات باستخدام خط أنابيب النفط الذي يمتد من ميناء “إيلات” على البحر الأحمر عبر منطقة صحراء النقب وصولاً إلى ساحل البحر الأبيض المتوسط. ووفقاً للوزارة، قدّمت الشركة الإسرائيلية – “آسيا أوروبا لخطوط الأنابيب” – التي تشغّل المسار تقييماً غير كافٍ للمخاطر.
ومع ذلك، يبدو أن الوزارة حريصة على تجنّب حدوث خلاف كبير، حيث ذكرت في رسالة إلى الشركة أن التأخير هو تدبير مؤقت إلى حين “تشاور الحكومة وتوصلها إلى قرار”. وعلى نحو مماثل، أفاد مكتب رئيس الوزراء أنه كان قد طلب من المحكمة التي تفصل في القضية “تمديد الوقت، من أجل الرد على العريضة التي قدمّتها المنظمات البيئية”.
ولا تزال السرية تحيط بعمليات خط الأنابيب، الذي تم بناؤه أساساً في أواخر ستينيات القرن الماضي لاستيراد النفط من إيران ما قبل الثورة، لكن قرب المسار من مواقع حساسة من الناحيتين البيئية والاستراتيجية معروف جيداً. فميناء “إيلات” يقع بين شواطئ سياحية ومحميات شعب مرجانية. أما الجزء الصحراوي من المسار، فيتضمن محمية طبيعية تضررت عند حدوث انكسار في خط الأنابيب عام 2014. كما أن ميناء عسقلان على البحر المتوسط لا يبعد سوى ميل واحد أو نحو ذلك عن الحدود مع غزة، مما يجعله معرضاً بشكل خاص لنيران صواريخ المتشددين. وكانت صور صهريج التخزين المشتعل في المنشأة من أكثر الصور المتداولة خلال القتال الأخير بين إسرائيل و«حماس».
ويبدو منطق الإمارات في استخدام خط الأنابيب دبلوماسياً بقدر ما هو تجاري. وعلى غرار دول الخليج الأخرى المصدّرة للنفط، يباع معظم الإنتاج الإماراتي إلى آسيا. ولا تأتي مشتريات النفط الإسرائيلية من الإمارات، بل من روسيا ودول منتجة أخرى (بما فيها أذربيجان، التي ترسل نفطها عبر خط أنابيب إلى الموانئ التركية للشحن عبر البحر الأبيض المتوسط). وتشير التقارير إلى أن الإمارات ستستخدم مسار “إيلات” لنقل مبيعات منتجات النفط بين الحين والآخر إلى أوروبا، رغم أنه قد يكون من الأسرع إجراء مثل هذه المعاملات التجارية بوسائل أخرى (على سبيل المثال، إرسال ناقلات عبر قناة السويس، أو استخدام “خط أنابيب سوميد” ذو السعة الأعلى بكثير في مصر، الذي يمتد من السويس عبر الصحراء إلى البحر المتوسط).
ويعكس التدخل الأخير من قبل وزارة حماية البيئة الإسرائيلية – التي تتولاها تمار زاندبرغ من حزب “ميريتس” اليساري – قوة اللوبي البيئي في البلاد، حيث تدعم وزيرة الطاقة كارين الحرار ووزيرة المواصلات ميراف ميخائيلي مثل هذه القضايا أيضاً. وتم سابقاً تقديم احتجاجات بيئية ضد مشاريع الغاز الطبيعي في السنوات الأخيرة، رغم أن هذا الوقود قد حلّ محل محطات توليد الطاقة العاملة على الفحم والتي تحدث تلوثاً أكبر بكثير. وفي 23 تموز/يوليو، أعلنت الحكومة الجديدة أنها ستخفض انبعاثات الكربون بنسبة 85 في المائة بحلول عام 2050، مع وضع هدف فوري بنسبة 27 في المائة بحلول عام 2030.
وبصرف النظر عن خط الأنابيب، تحاول الإمارات الاستثمار في حقل الغاز الطبيعي البحري الإسرائيلي “تمار” من خلال شراء حصة شركة “ديليك” للحفر البالغة 22 في المائة بقيمة 1.1 مليار دولار. لكن وتيرة إتمام الصفقة كانت بطيئة وستتطلب تمديداً بحلول 31 تموز/يوليو إذا تم المضي قدماً بها. وعلى الرغم من أن المسؤولين الإسرائيليين عزوا التأخير إلى إجراء العناية اللازمة، إلا أن النشرة الإخبارية الإقليمية المعروفة المختصة بالطاقة “ميدل إيست إيكونوميك سرفي” (“ميس”) أشارت إلى أن أبوظبي “أعادت التفكير” في الموضوع عندما اندلع الصراع الأخير في غزة بعد وقت قصير من الإعلان عن الصفقة.
وفي غضون ذلك، تحدث رئيس الوزارء بينيت مع الزعيم الفعلي للإمارات الأمير محمد بن زايد، ولي عهد إمارة أبوظبي، في 23 تموز/يوليو، وظاهرياً لكي يتمنى له عيد أضحى مبارك. وأشار بيان صادر عن دولة الإمارات إلى أنهما ناقشا سبل تعزيز التعاون “بالإضافة إلى عدد من المسائل الأخرى”. ولم يُذكر ما إذا كان بينيت قد تطرق إلى مشكلة خطة الأنابيب أم لا.
سايمون هندرسون هو “زميل بيكر” ومدير “برنامج برنستاين لشؤون الخليج وسياسة الطاقة” في معهد واشنطن.
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