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محللون، إن بريطانيا ترحب في شكل خاص بالأموال الروسية، ما يعيق قدرتها على تهديد روسيا في شكل جدير بالثقة. فروسيا توفر 10 في المئة من نفط العالم، و40 في المئة من الغاز المستهلك في أوروبا. وتشكل روسيا وأوكرانيا أيضاً مصدراً لربع الصادرات العالمية من القمح. وعقدت الدول الأعضاء في الاتحاد الأوروبي، الثلاثاء 22 فبراير (شباط) الجاري، لقاء في باريس للبحث في إجراءات انتقامية بعدما أمر السيد بوتين بإرسال قوات إلى شرق أوكرانيا، مساء الأحد. وأي إجراءات من شأنها أن تقلل من تدفق السلع الأساسية الحيوية من الممكن أن تخلف أثراً كبيراً مزعزعاً لاستقرار الاقتصاد العالمي وأن تتسبب في مزيد من التحديات للمستهلكين الأوروبيين الذين يعانون بالفعل من قفزات غير مسبوقة في تكاليف الطاقة. وقالت سوزانا ستريتر، وهي محللة بارزة في “هارغريفز لانسداون”، إن تصاعد التوترات قد يدفع أسعار الأغذية إلى الارتفاع من خلال تعطيل إمدادات الحبوب من روسيا وأوكرانيا ورومانيا، والتي تشحن القمح عبر موانئ مطلة على البحر الأسود. وقالت ستريتر لـ”اندبندنت”: “من المرجح أن يظل الطلب على النفط مرتفعاً، وسترتفع أسعار الغاز لفترة أطول إذا اشتعل الموقف في أوكرانيا وستعزز أسعار القمح [المرتفعة] تضخم أسعار الأغذية. “وهذ يفاقم المشاكل التي كنا نعاني منها بالفعل. ومن شأن العقوبات الصارمة أن تتسبب في تحديات للمستهلكين في المملكة المتحدة”. والأسبوع الماضي، أضافت “نستله”، أكبر شركة أغذية على مستوى العالم، اسمها إلى قائمة طويلة من الشركات التي رفعت أسعارها بعد ارتفاع التكاليف. وتوقعت السيدة ستريتر مزيداً من الزيادات. وقالت السيدة ستريتر، إن تصعيد العقوبات على روسيا قد يتسبب في ارتفاع معدل التضخم حتى أكثر من السبعة في المئة التي كان خبراء اقتصاديون يتوقعونها، مع استمرار الزيادات في الأسعار لفترة أطول. وتساءل آخرون عن مدى استعداد الاتحاد الأوروبي لتلقي ضربة اقتصادية من أجل التصدي لبوتين في شأن أوكرانيا. وقالت أوكسانا أنتونينكو، مديرة المخاطر السياسية العالمية في مؤسسة “مخاطر التحكم” الاستشارية: “أشك شخصياً في أن يجد المرء إجماعاً داخل الاتحاد الأوروبي. وفي اعتقادي أن وقف الواردات من النفط والغاز الروسيين من المستحيل تخيله. لكن من الممكن أن نتخيل [نتوقع] أن توقف روسيا إمدادات الغاز إلى أوروبا. “لقد فعلوا ذلك من قبل، لذلك فالتعطيل أمر ممكن. وإذا كان لهذا أن يحدث، أظن أننا سنشهد زيادة في الأسعار بكل تأكيد”. وأضافت أن “المؤشرات كلها” تفيد بأن الاتحاد الأوروبي سيحذو حذو المملكة المتحدة فيستهدف أفراداً روساً أثرياء تربطهم علاقات قوية ببوتين، فضلاً عن المصارف المرتبطة بالكرملين. وحذرت السيدة أنتونينكو من أن إجراءات كهذه لن تخلف أثراً يذكر في الأسر في المملكة المتحدة، ولكن ما يدعو إلى القلق هو احتمال ألا تغير سلوك الرئيس الروسي أيضاً. “أعتقد عموماً أن العقوبات لا تؤثر إلى حد كبير على تصرفات بوتين. ولا يبدو أن العقوبات ستردعه هو نفسه على الإطلاق”. ومن ناحية أخرى، يبدو زعماء العالم الآخرون أكثر ضعفاً أمام الآثار الاقتصادية الناجمة عن أي تحرك رئيس ضد روسيا. يواجه الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن انتخابات منتصف الولاية الرئاسية المهمة في نوفمبر (تشرين الثاني)، ويتعرض بوريس جونسون إلى ضغوط سياسية هائلة بعد سلسلة من الفضائح، وإيمانويل ماكرون مرشح لولاية رئاسية ثانية في فرنسا خلال أبريل (نيسان). وقال دان أرنسون، المدير المشارك للمؤسسة الاستشارية في مجال المخاطر السياسية “جي بي دبليو”: “هل سيرغب أي من هؤلاء القادة في الوقوف وراء ارتفاعات ضخمة في أسعار الطاقة تتكبدها شعوبهم؟ أعتقد أن ذلك مستبعد”. وأضاف أرنسون أن حكومات المملكة المتحدة والاتحاد الأوروبي “لن تكون على استعداد لتحمل التحديات التي تتطلبها العقوبات الاقتصادية الكبرى. وفي الممارسة العملية لن نخرب اقتصادنا في هذا الشأن”. لكن إذا قيض لبوتين أن يطلق غزواً واسع النطاق– وهي نتيجة يعتقد العديد من الخبراء بأنها تظل غير مرجحة– “قد يؤدي ذلك إلى عقوبات أكثر شمولاً وأوسع نطاقاً”، وفق أرنسون. ما العقوبات التي أعلن عنها؟ كشف بوريس جونسون النقاب عن عقوبات محدودة لتجميد أصول ثلاثة روس من أصحاب المليارات وخمسة مصارف على صلة وثيقة بالجيش الروسي أو الأجهزة السرية الروسية. وكان الإجراء الأكثر أهمية [وزناً] حتى الآن تأكيد ألمانيا أنها جمدت الموافقة على خط الأنابيب “نورد ستريم 2”. وكان هذا المسار ليسمح بدخول مزيد من الغاز الروسي إلى أوروبا، ومن شأنه أن يزيد من اعتماد القارة على موسكو ويتجاوز خطوط الأنابيب القائمة التي تشكل مصدراً رئيساً للعوائد لأوكرانيا. وعلى الرغم من أن هذا يشكل خطوة مهمة فهو لا يعني أي ضربة فورية للكرملين لأن خط الأنابيب لم يكن بعد قيد التشغيل. ما العقوبات الأخرى التي يمكن فرضها؟ من بين السبل لفرض ضغوط على بوتين استهداف مجموعة من الأشخاص الأثرياء الذين يستمد منهم سلطته. وقال أرنسون، إن منع الأثرياء الروس من السفر إلى أوروبا أو جلب أموالهم إلى هنا “من شأنه أن يخلف أثراً كبيراً مزعجاً في موسكو. “فنخبة رجال الأعمال تدعم الكرملين وبوتين ضعيف ويعتمد على دعمهم تماماً، على الرغم مما تبدو عليه الأمور. وإذا بدأت ثرواتهم تتعرض إلى ضربات ولم يعد بوسعهم أن يفعلوا ما شاؤوا فإن من شأن ذلك أن يوجه ضربة قوية إلى بوتين. لكن المملكة المتحدة في شكل خاص قد تكون عازفة عن إحكام قبضتها على الروس الأثرياء”. وأضاف أرنسون: “لا أعتقد أن حكومة المملكة المتحدة هذه راغبة في التحرك [اتخاذ خطوات تذكر]. ثمة كثير من الأموال القذرة هنا وهناك العديد من الناس الذين لديهم مصلحة في الحفاظ على الأمور كما هي الآن”. استهداف قطاع الطاقة في روسيا في وسع الاتحاد الأوروبي أن يتخذ إجراءات مستهدفة ضد قطاع الطاقة في روسيا، وهذا من شأنه أن يحرم بوتين من عوائد. لكن هذا من شأنه أن يؤثر في شكل كبير في أسعار الغاز والبنزين في أوروبا في وقت ترتفع فيه تكاليف المعيشة بسرعة بالفعل. كذلك يتطلب الأمر التوصل إلى إجماع بين الدول الأعضاء. ويعتقد معظم الخبراء أن هذا أمر غير محتمل في الوقت الحاضر. استهداف النظام المالي في متناول الولايات المتحدة أن تفرض قيوداً صارمة على قدرة المصارف الروسية على استخدام النظام المالي العالمي. ويقال إن واشنطن تضع خططاً لمنع المصارف الروسية الكبرى من استخدام المصارف الأميركية “المراسلة” التي تيسر المدفوعات المالية الدولية. وهذا من شأنه أن يجعل من الصعب على المصارف الروسية أن تتعامل بالدولار. ومن بين الأسلحة القاطعة المتاحة إدراج المؤسسات المالية على قائمة “الرعايا المعينين خصيصاً” [الأشخاص المستهدفين والمحددين]، وهذا من شأنه أن يجمد الأصول الأميركية لهذه المؤسسات وأن يخرجها فعلياً من النظام المصرفي الأميركي، ويحظر تجارتها مع أميركيين. © The Independent المزيد عن: أوكرانيا \ أسعار الطاقة \ غزو روسي \ عقوبات بريطانية 201 comments 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail admin previous post المحاصصة قد تضع باشاغا تحت ضغط توسيع تشكيلته الوزارية next post هل يتسبب التصعيد الروسي بأوكرانيا في أزمة مصرفية عالمية؟ You may also like غسان شربل يكتب عن: لبنان… و«اليوم 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