نتيناهيو يسعى إلى فرض السيادة الكاملة على الضفة وتل أبيب تبحث في كيفية مواجهة احتمال عودة عمليات الأسر
تعمل القيادات السياسية والعسكرية الإسرائيلية على بلورة سياسة جديدة تجاه الفلسطينيين في الضفة الغربية، على الصعيدين الأمني والسياسي، في أعقاب ما توصلت إليه الأجهزة الأمنية من معلومات تفيد بأن عملية “غوش عتسيون”، التي قُتل فيها جندي إسرائيلي، لم تُنفَّذ من قبل تنظيم فلسطيني منظم وإنما بشكل فردي، لكن الأجهزة الأمنية لم تسقط من حساباتها بالمطلق، فرضية أن مخططي العملية لم يقصدوا أسر الجندي. وعليه تبحث السلطة في تل أبيب في كيفية مواجهة احتمال عودة عمليات الأسر، كتلك التي فجرت الأوضاع الأمنية عام 2014 بعد أسر ثلاثة فتية مستوطنين وقتلهم.
ولم يعد الهدوء بالنسبة للأجهزة الأمنية اطمئناناً، إذ يرى البعض أن هذه العملية قد تعيد موجةً كبيرة من العمليات.
تضارب في التقديرات
ويبدو التضارب واضحاً في التقديرات الأمنية لعملية القتل ومنفذيها. ولا يزال الجيش الإسرائيلي يحقق ويبحث في كيفية تنفيذ العملية، وتركز أجهزة الاستخبارات في تحقيقاتها مع المتهمين على الخلفية، لتضع تصوراً لها للفترة المقبلة، وما إذا شهدت المنطقة بالفعل تصعيداً أمنياً وعمليات ضد إسرائيليين، تركز أساساً على خطف جنود ومستوطنين.
ولا تزال حالة الأمن مستمرة وينشر الجيش قوات كبيرة وحواجز في كل المناطق الفلسطينية، كما تسير دوريات مكثفة في البلدات الإسرائيلية الكبرى وفي مجمعاتها التجارية، التي تخشى الأجهزة الأمنية أن تكون مناطق سهلة لتنفيذ عمليات تفجير.
وتبحث الاستخبارات في ما إذا ما كانت العملية فردية أم نتيجة عمل تنظيمات مسلحة. ويرفض مسؤولون في الأجهزة الأمنية اعتبار تنفيذها أمراً فردياً ويحذرون من أن التنظيمات الفلسطينية تضع خططاً لضمان نجاح تنفيذ عمليات تخطط لها. وتخشى أصوات تصر على أن خلية تابعة لأحد التنظيمات، هي مَن نفذت العملية، ضمن عمليات أخرى خلال الفترة المقبلة، في القدس والضفة الغربية، خصوصاً في مناطق المستوطنات.
هذه التقديرات وضعها الجيش الإسرائيلي في حساباته ما دفعه إلى تعزيز قواته، والتدريب والاستعداد لاحتمال مواجهات وتصعيد أمني يضع المنطقة الفلسطينية في حالة طوارئ.
قُتل بالصدفة
تضارب تقارير الأجهزة الأمنية الإسرائيلية يرجح كفة القائلين إن “العملية نُفذت فردياً”. ويتبنى هؤلاء رواية الشابين الفلسطينيين المعتقلين، نصير عصافرة وقاسم عصافرة، من بلدة بيت كاحل جنوب الضفة الغربية. وبعد ساعات على اعتقالهما، أعلن محققو الأجهزة الأمنية أن الشابين لم يخططا لتنفيذها، وقررا تنفيذ العملية بعدما شاهدا الجندي صدفة.
وبحسب تقرير إسرائيلي، فإن سلوك المعتقلين بعد تنفيذ العملية، بعدم الحذر والاختباء والهرب، يدفع في اتجاه فرضية أن تكون العملية شخصية ومن دون أي تنسيق مع أية جهة.
وبحسب جهاز الأمن الداخلي الإسرائيلي “الشاباك”، لا توجد أية خلفية أمنية للمعتقلين، لكن الجهاز يقول إن أحدهما مقرب من حركة “حماس”، وهذا ما يدفع البعض إلى التقدير أن العملية غير فردية.
وبناء على هذه التقديرات، فإن العملية مُخطط لها، إذ سافر منفذوها لفترة زمنية غير قصيرة في المحور الواصل بين شارع 60 ومستوطنتي إفرات ومغدال عوز، للبحث عن هدف لتنفيذ العمليّة.
أسرى صفقة شليط
وفي ذروة تضارب تقديرات أجهزة الأمن، نُقل عن الرئيس السابق لمنطقة القدس والضفة والذي شغل أيضاً منصب رئيس قسم السايبر في “الشاباك”، أريك باربينغ، أنه “يستبعد وقوف تنظيم خلف هذه العملية”، قائلاً إن “معظم العمليات التي تعامل معها الشاباك في السنوات الأخيرة تتماهى مع إرهاب الأفراد، هذه العمليات ينفذها أفراد أو خلايا محلية صغيرة، تتمثل بالطعن أو الدهس وأحياناً بإطلاق النار من دون انتماء تنظيمي”، ويضيف باربينغ “وأمام هذا التهديد أصبحنا نعرف ماذا نعمل بشكل أفضل، ولكن بقي أيضاً التهديد القديم التقليدي لإرهاب منظم. عدد كبير من هذه العمليات مخطط وممول من غزة، على الأغلب من قبل مطرودي صفقة شليط، الذين يعملون هناك بواسطة جسم يسمى قيادة الضفة”، وتابع قائلاً “إرهاب من نوع آخر تتعامل معه إسرائيل بصورة منهجية ومهنية”.
ويأتي حديث باربينغ عقب تقديرات تشير إلى أن رؤساء قيادة الضفة، وهم سكان الضفة الغربية في الأصل، الذين طُردوا إلى القطاع في صفقة شليط عام 2011، يحاولون العودة وتفعيل العمليات ضد أهداف إسرائيلية، كتلك العمليات التي نُفذت في أيام اتفاقات أوسلو والانتفاضة الثانية: خلايا منظمة تبادر لتنفيذ عمليات عن طريق العبوات الناسفة، وعمليات انتحارية أو إطلاق النار على الجمهور.
وفي هذا الجانب يقول باربينغ “جرى استيعاب أعضاء قيادة الضفة في السنوات الأخيرة، في الذراع العسكرية لحركة حماس في القطاع، وتعلموا من أعضائها طرق عمل جديدة أكثر عسكرية، مثل إدارة اتصالات سرية والتشفير وعمل هرمي منظم بشكل أفضل. هذا بالإضافة إلى مشاركة إيران في التزويد “بالمعلومات المهنية” اللازمة، ولكن يضيف باربينغ “عنق زجاجة حماس هو في المنطقة نفسها بالتحديد. النشطاء في القطاع يواجهون صعوبة في تجنيد الكثير من سكان الضفة، الذين يوافقون على المخاطرة بالتخطيط لعمليات أو تنفيذ عمليات انتحارية بأنفسهم. لقد مرت المنطقة بتغييرات منذ انتهاء الانتفاضة، الناس لا يقفون في الطابور للتطوع”.
“ماكينة قطع العشب الأخضر”
وبحسب تقرير إسرائيلي، فإن طريقة العمل التي بلورها “الشاباك” والجيش لمواجهة عمليات منظمة وصعبة، سميت بـ “ماكينة قطع العشب الأخضر”، وبموجبها يُعتقل أسبوعياً عشرات الفلسطينيين في الضفة يخضعون للتحقيق من قبل “الشاباك”، ويتبين في ما بعد أن عدداً منهم أبرياء والبعض يجري التحقيق معهم بتهمة مخالفات بسيطة، مثل المشاركة في تظاهرات تخللها رشق الحجارة على جنود الجيش.
وأردف باربينغ قائلاً “تدير إسرائيل حرباً هجومية، نحن لا نقف على خط الهدف وننتظر أن يركلوا نحونا. إنه صراع غير متساوي القوة. في المقابل، تستخدم حماس جهازاً فعالاً جداً لفحص الأخطاء والتعلم منها. والتنسيق الأمني مع السلطة الفلسطينية هو جزء من القصة. صحيح أن أبو مازن هدد في الشهر الماضي بوقف التنسيق، لكن عملياً لم يوقف التنسيق في العقد الأخير على الرغم من التهديد، ولكن هذا ليس بدافع المعزة وإنما لاعتبارات خاصة”.
المستوطنات هدف أولي
على الرغم من أن رئيس الحكومة بنيامين نتنياهو، لا ينتظر الذريعة لبسط سيطرة حكومته على الأراضي الفلسطينية، إلا أنه وجد في العملية مقدمة لتنفيذ خطته في فرض السيادة الإسرائيلية على الضفة وتنفيذ مخطط الضم، وجعل نتنياهو من مشاريعه الاستيطانية مرحلة أولى من خطته.
فقبل أن يحسم أن قتل الجندي نُفذ على خلفية قومية، تعهد نتنياهو بضمان السيادة الإسرائيلية في أنحاء الضفة الغربية كلها، وأطلق رئيس الحكومة تصريحه هذا خلال مشاركته في مراسم وضع حجر أساس لـ 650 وحدة سكنية جديدة في مستوطنة بيت إيل، وقال حينها “تعهدنا ببناء مئات الوحدات السكنية، اليوم نقوم بذلك، إيفاء بتعهداتنا ولأن مهمتنا هي إقامة دولة إسرائيل في بلدنا، وضمان سيادتنا في وطننا التاريخي”.
وأضاف نتنياهو “يحاول الإرهابيون الشرسون أن يقلعوا ويخربوا ونحن نأتي لنزرع. يأتون ليدمروا، نحن نأتي لنبني. تعهدت وأتعهد هنا، مرة ثانية، بتعزيز جذورنا في موطننا، في جميع أنحاء وطننا”.
المزيد عن: القيادات الاسرائيلية/غوش عتسيون
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