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Home » إسرائيل تستعد لقيام الولايات المتحدة بإحياء «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة»

إسرائيل تستعد لقيام الولايات المتحدة بإحياء «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة»

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The Washington institute /  مايكل هيرتسوغ

مايكل هيرتسوغ هو زميل ميلتون فاين الدولي في معهد واشنطن.

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حذّر رئيس أركان الجيش الإسرائيلي من العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي الموقع مع إيران عام 2015 أو إبرام أي اتفاق مشابه، وأضاف أنه أمر بإعداد خطط عسكرية جديدة لمواجهة التحدي النووي الإيراني. ويُعتبر الملف الإيراني اختباراً مهماً لموقف إدارة بايدن في الشرق الأوسط وعلاقاتها مع إسرائيل. وتتمثّل المقاربة الأفضل للحكومتين هو استيعاب الدروس المستفادة من عام 2015 والدخول في مناقشة شاملة وسرية تركز على الأفكار البناءة والنتائج الواقعية.

في 26 كانون الثاني/يناير، حذّر رئيس أركان “جيش الدفاع الإسرائيلي” الجنرال أفيف كوخافي علناً من العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي الموقع مع إيران عام 2015 أو إبرام أي اتفاق مشابه، وأضاف أنه أمر “الجيش الإسرائيلي” بإعداد خطط عسكرية جديدة لمواجهة التحدي النووي الإيراني. ويُعتبر إطلاق مسؤول عسكري مثل هذه التحذيرات أمر مثير للجدل في الخطاب العام الإسرائيلي، ومع ذلك، فإن جوهر ملاحظات كوخافي هو أنه يسلّط الضوء على إجماع داخلي واسع النطاق على ثلاث نقاط أساسية: أن طهران لم تتخلَ يوماً عن طموحها بامتلاك سلاح نووي، وأن «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» تركت مجالات مفتوحة أمامها لتحقيق هذا الطموح، وأن إيران نووية ستشكل تهديداً خطيراً على إسرائيل.

 

وخلال جلسة اعتماد وزير الخارجية الأمريكي أنتوني بلينكن قبل أسبوع من تصريحات كوخافي، أشار الوزير إلى أنه في إطار الاستعداد لمواجهة التحدي الإيراني، اعتزمت إدارة بايدن التشاور مع إسرائيل وحلفاء آخرين في المنطقة حول “الانطلاقة”. ورحبت القدس بهذا التعهد وتتطلع إلى بدء النقاش حول هذا الموضوع؛ وكلّف رئيس الوزراء بنيامين نتنياهو مستشار الأمن القومي مئير بن شبات بهذه المهمة. وفي النهاية، تأمل إسرائيل في إقناع فريق بايدن بعدم العودة إلى الاتفاق الأساسي، أو في حال عجزها عن ذلك، تسليطها الضوء على أبرز الشوائب في «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» التي يجب تصحيحها.

الانتقاد الإسرائيلي

يساور قلق كبير القيادة السياسية والدفاعية الإسرائيلية بشأن الخطة المعلنة للرئيس بايدن لإحياء «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» من خلال العودة إلى شروطها الأساسية ومن ثم السعي إلى جعلها “أطول زمناً وأقوى تأثيراً”. فبرأيهم، لا يغطي الاتفاق بشكل صحيح الأبعاد الرئيسية الثلاثة للبرنامج العسكري النووي – أي المواد الانشطارية، وأنظمة التوصيل، وأنشطة تحويل البرنامج إلى أسلحة – أو عمليات التفتيش:

  • ستسمح بنود الانقضاء ضمن «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» لإيران في النهاية بأن تصبح دولة على حافة العتبة النووية من خلال إضفاء الشرعية على أنشطة التخصيب ذات الطابع والحجم الخطيرين وإلغاء صلاحية المجتمع الدولي بمراقبة البرنامج ككل عن كثب، مما يجعل من الصعب أو حتى من المستحيل منع النظام من تخطي هذه العتبة بسرعة. وحتى السماح لطهران ببلوغ هذه العتبة من شأنه أن يؤدي على الأرجح إلى عدم استقرار حاد في جميع أنحاء المنطقة، ويشمل ذلك سباق تسلح نووي محتمل.
  • تحظى صواريخ إيران حصراً بتغطية من قرار “مجلس الأمن الدولي” رقم 2231، الذي هو قرار ضعيف وغامض لم يبطئ بعد جهود تطوير الصواريخ التي تبذلها طهران منذ إقراره والذي من المقرر أن ينتهي أمده في تشرين الأول/أكتوبر 2023.
  • بعد «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة»، أغلقت “الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية” ملف “الأبعاد العسكرية المحتملة” لبرنامج إيران، متجاهلةً تقاريرها الخاصة في هذا الشأن. ومع ذلك، كشف الأرشيف الذي استحوذت عليه إسرائيل في عام 2018 معلومات جديدة حول الأهداف المحددة لبرنامج طهران النووي العسكري ونطاقه وتَقدَمه. ويكشف وجود هذا الأرشيف بحد ذاته عن نية النظام بالحفاظ على هذه المعرفة لاستخدامها في المستقبل.
  • إن نظام التفتيش والتحقق الذي وضعته «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» أثبت نقصه من حيث عمليات التفتيش المفاجئة بعد إخطار قصير المدة للمواقع غير المعلن عنها واستجواب العاملين ذوي الصلة.

وساهمت هذه العوامل، إلى جانب عمليات الأبحاث والتطوير الخاصة بأجهزة الطرد المركزي المتطورة والأنشطة الأخرى، بتغيير خط الأساس المحدد عام 2015 الذي من المفترض أن تعود إليه الأطراف المعنية، وقصّر بشكل ملحوظ جدول إيران الزمني لتصبح دولة على حافة العتبة النووية حتى لو عادت إلى الامتثال الكامل. ويخشى الإسرائيليون أيضاً من أن رفع العقوبات الرئيسية في إطار العودة إلى الاتفاق [النووي] من شأنه أن يمنح طهران غير المعتدلة والجريئة متنفساً مالياً، مما يسهل بالتالي ممارسة أنشطتها المزعزعة للاستقرار ويحرّم الولايات المتحدة من نفوذها الجوهري للتوصل إلى اتفاق أفضل.

وما يعزز هذا الانتقاد هو الغياب المتصور للإرادة السياسية الغربية باتخاذ إجراءات جريئة عند الضرورة، والذي بدوره يعزز سياسة حافة الهاوية التي تعتمدها إيران. واستناداً إلى سابقة تاريخية، يعتبر الإسرائيليون أن الدبلوماسية والمحفزات ذات الصلة لا يمكنها عرقلة مسار طهران لامتلاك سلاح نووي ما لم تحظَ بدعم مستمر من عقبات قوية وعزم مثبت على المضي قدماً بها إذا دعت الحاجة – بما في ذلك الخيارات العسكرية القابلة للتطبيق. وتؤكد حملة “المنطقة الرمادية” التي تشنها إسرائيل ضد الاستحكام العسكري الإيراني في سوريا أنه يمكن لعزيمة مماثلة التصدي لأنشطة النظام المزعزعة للاستقرار في الخارج وفي الوقت نفسه منعها من تصعيد ردودها. وفي المقابل، يبدو أن الولايات المتحدة وحلفاءها الأوروبيين يفضلون عقبات ضعيفة نسبياً ولا يزال يتعين عليهم إظهار عزمهم على مواجهة تحدي تصعيد إيران لسياسة حافة الهاوية. وتشكك إسرائيل بإقدامهم على زيادة الضغط بشكل ملحوظ إذا عادت طهران إلى الامتثال لـ «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» لكنها ترفض المضي قدماً باتفاق محسن.

إعادة رسم «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» – ورسم الخطوط الحمراء

على الرغم من هذه المخاوف، ليست القدس على عجلة من أمرها [للدخول في] مشاحنة علنية مع إدارة بايدن شبيهة بتلك التي حصلت مع أوباما بشأن سياسة إيران – وهي تستعد للحوار. ويعتقد المسؤولون الإسرائيليون أنهم حالما يعرضوا النتائج النهائية التي توصلوا إليها من الأرشيف النووي الذي استحوذوا عليه، سيتمكنون من التأثير على السياسات التي تنتهجها إدارة تتشارك معهم هدف منع إيران من امتلاك سلاح نووي وتقر ضمنياً بشوائب «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» (مع الأخذ في الاعتبار أن سيطرة الديمقراطيين على مجلسي الكونغرس في الولايات المتحدة قد تحد من رغبة الهيئة التشريعية في الضغط على سياسة البيت الأبيض أو مواجهتها).

وبينما تقترب الحكومتان من البدء بحوار مماثل، تركز إسرائيل على ضرورة عدم تخلي الولايات المتحدة عن نفوذ أساسي في سعيها لتطبيق مبدأ “الامتثال مقابل الامتثال”. وفي الوقت نفسه، يقر الكثيرون في مجتمع السياسة الإسرائيلية بأنه رغم الخسائر الاقتصادية الضخمة التي تسببت بها سياسة “الضغط الأقصى” التي انتهجها الرئيس ترامب تجاه إيران، إلا أنها لم تنجح في وقف البرنامج النووي أو إعادة طهران إلى طاولة المفاوضات. وبالتالي، يفضل بعض المسؤولين حلاً وسطياً يقوم على مبدأ “الأقل مقابل الأقل” – على الرغم أن القيادة الإسرائيلية العليا لا توافق حالياً على خطوة مماثلة.

ولكن أين يجب تحديد الخط الفاصل بين الشروط الأصلية لـ «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» والشروط المتطرفة لوزير الخارجية الأمريكي السابق مايك بومبيو من أجل التوصل إلى اتفاق أفضل؟ من الناحية المثالية، يجب منع إيران من القدرة على الحفاظ على قدرات التخصيب المحلية وإتقان دورة الوقود النووي، لكن العديد من الإسرائيليين يدركون أنه من غير المرجح أن تنخرط واشنطن في هذه المسألة لأن القطار قد فات منذ فترة طويلة. وبالتالي، ركزوا على تمديد فترة انقضاء «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» بعقود من الزمن وإرساء نظام تدخلي للتفتيش “في أي زمان وأي مكان”. كما أن هناك إجماع واسع النطاق ضمن الحكومة الإسرائيلية على الحاجة إلى حظر تطوير أجهزة طرد مركزي متطورة، ومعالجة الأبعاد الخطيرة لبرنامج الصواريخ الإيراني بشكل مناسب، وإعادة فتح ملف “الأبعاد العسكرية المحتملة” في ضوء النتائج المستقاة من الأرشيف النووي.

أما بالنسبة لأنشطة طهران الخبيثة في المنطقة، فإن فكرة معالجتها من خلال محادثات نووية جديدة أو مسار تفاوض موازٍ لا يتم النظر إليها بعين الرضا من قبل إسرائيل التي تعتبر الملف النووي هو القضية الأكثر أهمية ولا ترغب في إثقاله أكثر مما ينبغي. وهنا ثمة بعض التباين مع الشركاء الخليجيين، الذين يمنحون الأولوية للتهديد الذي تطرحه إيران في المنطقة على التهديد النووي (على الرغم من أنهم نسقوا مع إسرائيل في كثير من الأحيان في التعبير عن معارضتهم لإعادة «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» إلى وضعها السابق). كما يشعر المسؤولون الإسرائيليون بالقلق من أن تمارس المناقشات الموازية الضغوط عليهم للحدّ من الردود العسكرية المستمرة في سوريا. فهم يعتبرون أنه من الضروري مواجهة أنشطة طهران في المنطقة أولاً على الأرض بدلاً من التفاوض بشأنها أو التغاضي عنها بسبب الخوف من أن تقوّض أي تسوية نووية.

 

علاوةً على ذلك، سلّط خطاب كوخافي الضوء على خيار القيام بعمل عسكري ضد برنامج إيران النووي، وهو ما نظرت إليه إسرائيل بجدّية بين عامي 2010  و 2012. ومثل هذا الحديث ليس مجرد موقف. فهو يمثل اعتقاداً راسخاً بأنه يجب أن يكون لدى إسرائيل خيار عسكري كسبيل أخير متوافر في حال تبلور بعض السيناريوهات المحددة، مثل فشل المفاوضات واستمرار المخالفات النووية الإيرانية إلى درجة خطيرة أو العودة إلى «خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة» من دون المضي نحو التوصل إلى اتفاق أفضل، والذي من شأنه أن يسمح في نهاية المطاف بتقدم نووي خطير وسط بدء فترة انقضاء القيود. ويشكك الإسرائيليون في تحرك الولايات المتحدة عسكرياً إذا تم استنفاد جميع الخيارات الأخرى لوقف إيران (على سبيل المثال، الدبلوماسية والعمل الخفي/السري). فضلاً عن ذلك، لطالما كان خطهم الأحمر أكثر صرامةً من ذلك الذي تحدده واشنطن – فبرأيهم لا يمكن السماح لإيران باكتساب القدرة على الوصول إلى العتبة النووية، في حين يميل الخط الأمريكي الأحمر إلى تخطي طهران فعلياً لهذه العتبة وتسرعها نحو تطوير سلاح (نووي).

وحتى الآن، لم يبلغ الوضع بعد درجة الغليان ولكنه يستعر تدريجياً. ووفقاً لتقديرات المخابرات الإسرائيلية المحدّثة المقدمة في الآونة الأخيرة إلى مجلس الوزراء، تقلّصت فترة تجاوز العتبة النووية الإيرانية (أي المدة التي ستحتاجها إيران لإنتاج مواد انشطارية تستخدم في صنع أسلحة نووية تكون كافية لإنتاج قنبلة واحدة) إلى 4 أشهر، وستحتاح إلى حوالي 21 إلى 24 شهراً تقريباً لتحويل البرنامج إلى سلاح، ربما بالتوازي مع جهودها للتخصيب بنسب مرتفعة (على افتراض أنها لا تملك أساساً فريق عمل للتسلّح قد بدأ عمله).

 

وبينما تدرس إدارة بايدن كيفية إدراج المخاوف الإسرائيلية في استراتيجيتها التي تطورها بشأن إيران، فمن الأفضل أن تضع العوامل الأساسية التالية في الاعتبار:

  • المصالح الأمنية الوطنية الإسرائيلية الأساسية على المحك، والحكومة مصممة على حمايتها
  • الحلفاء الآخرين في المنطقة هم أصحاب مصلحة أيضاً ويشاركون إسرائيل مخاوفها
  • التقدّم الذي أحرزته إسرائيل في مجال التطبيع مع دول عربية وحملتها لمواجهة الأنشطة الإيرانية في سوريا منحتا الولايات المتحدة ميزة إضافية في وجه طهران في السياقين النووي والإقليمي. ويمكن لواشنطن الاستفادة من هذه الأصول بعدة طرق غير مذكورة هنا.

ويُعتبر الملف الإيراني اختباراً مهماً لموقف إدارة بايدن في الشرق الأوسط وعلاقاتها مع إسرائيل. وتتمثّل المقاربة الأفضل للحكومتين في استيعاب الدروس المستفادة من عام 2015 والمشاركة في محادثات شاملة ومستمرة وسرية تركّز على الأفكار البناءة وتبتعد عن المواقف العامة. إن “حوار الصُم” يحمل في طياته مخاطر كبيرة.

مايكل هيرتسوغ، عميد متقاعد في “جيش الجفاع الإسرائيلي”، وزميل “ميلتون فاين إنترناشيونال” في معهد واشنطن. وسابقاً، شغل منصب رئيس “قسم التخطيط الاستراتيجي” في “جيش الدفاع الإسرائيلي” ورئيس مكتب وزير الدفاع.

 

 

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