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Home » إسرائيل تدخل سفنها في حالة طوارئ تحسبا للتصعيد الأميركي – الإيراني

إسرائيل تدخل سفنها في حالة طوارئ تحسبا للتصعيد الأميركي – الإيراني

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التقديرات الاستخبارية تستبعد أن تكون تل أبيب جزءاً من أي حرب

اندبندنت عربية / أمال شحادة 

تشهد المؤسسة الأمنية الإسرائيلية حالة إرباك في تقييم مدى انعكاس الملف الإيراني في الخليج على أمن إسرائيل، وإذا ما ستكون تل أبيب طرفاً في أي تصعيد في المنطقة بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران.

وعلى الرغم من أن التقديرات الاستخبارية تستبعد أن تكون إسرائيل جزءاً من أي حرب، إلا أن المؤسسة الأمنية أعلنت حالة الطوارئ والتأهب لدى سلاح البحرية والسفن المدنية والتجارية، خشية تعرضها لاعتداءات مباشرة من إيران أو حلفائها في المنطقة. ووضعت آبار الغاز، المختلف عليها مع لبنان، على رأس الأهداف الاستراتيجية المعرضة للاعتداء.

وفيما أعلنت الأجهزة الأمنية أن سيطرة إيران على ناقلة نفط بريطانية تشكل نقطة تصعيد خطيرة، استبعد تقرير استخباري أن تتعرض إيران للسفن الإسرائيلية، لأن التعرض لها سيعتبر بمثابة إعلان حرب. أما في حال قررت إقحام إسرائيل في هذا التصعيد وإلحاق أضرار بأهداف إسرائيلية، فلن تنفذ ذلك مباشرة إنما عن طريق حلفائها، وفي مقدمهم حزب الله.

وتتفاخر إسرائيل بأنها الدولة الوحيدة القادرة على قتل إيرانيين، في تلميح إلى عمليات القصف التي تنفذها في سوريا. وهدد وزير التعاون الإقليمي تساحي هنغبي قائلاً “لقد قصفنا الإيرانيين مئات المرات، وهم يدركون أننا لن نسمح بتهديد أمننا القومي. وإذا فعلوا ذلك، فسنكون هجوميين”.

حزب الله لن يتسرع

يكمن التخوف الإسرائيلي في انعكاس التصعيد بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران على إسرائيل، ليس في عمق البحر فحسب، بل عند حدودها الشمالية، وتجاه سوريا تحديداً، على الرغم من أن التقديرات الاستخبارية تشير إلى أن حزب الله “لن يسارع للدخول في مغامرة عسكرية ضد إسرائيل بطلب من النظام الإيراني”. وتدعم هذه التقديرات تقارير إسرائيلية تقول إن “الردع أمام حزب الله لا يزال قوياً، وأن احتمال اندلاع حرب بسبب حادث محدد مثل الرد على قصف إسرائيلي على مواقع تابعة لحزب الله أو إيران في سوريا، هو احتمال ضئيل”.

لكن مقابل هذه التقديرات نشرت صحيفة “هآرتس” الإسرائيلية تقريراً تدعي فيه أن إيران حوّلت البحر إلى أداة لنقل الأسلحة إلى سوريا وحزب الله، بما لا يمكن لإسرائيل منعه. ووفق هذا التقرير، فإنه إزاء الهجمات التي سعت إلى منع إيران من التمركز في سوريا وزيادة دقة صواريخ حزب الله، فإن طهران تفضل نقل جزء من الوسائل القتالية عبر البحر.

وأضاف التقرير “تقديرات أجهزة الأمن هي أن إيران ستُفضل الامتناع عن مواجهة إسرائيل في الساحة البحرية، لأن مصلحتها هي تخفيف العقوبات الاقتصادية، التي فرضت عليها بواسطة المفاوضات. مع ذلك، على المستوى الأمني يستعدون لسيناريو تصعيد في هذه الساحة، وقد حذر جهاز الأمن المستوى السياسي من محاولات ضرب قطع الملاحة التابعة لسلاح البحرية والسفن التجارية الإسرائيلية بواسطة صواريخ دقيقة”. وإزاء ذلك قررت القيادة العسكرية شراء أنظمة دفاع تحت مائية متطورة لمواجهة الألغام البحرية.

عائق بحري في إيلات

ضمن الاحتياطات الأمنية، إزاء التطورات الأخيرة، بحث منتدى أمني إسرائيلي كيفية التعامل مع هذه التطورات ومنع تهديد أمن إسرائيل. وصدر عن هذا المنتدى تقرير يدعي أن إيران تهدد قطعاً بحرية إسرائيلية وتمنعها من الدخول إلى مضائق تيران في البحر الأحمر. بناءً عليه، أقيم عائق بحري في الميناء العسكري في إيلات لمنع دخول قوارب ودراجات بحرية، كجزء من وسائل الدفاع في الميناء.

اقرأ المزيد:

رهانات إيران تنذر بتصعيد يكشف حساباتها المخطئة

كما تم وقف حركة قطع الملاحة المدنية للسياح في خليج إيلات. ويأخذ جهاز الأمن في الحسبان سيناريو تنفيذ عمليات بواسطة دراجة بحرية أو قطع ملاحة سريعة، كجزء من التهديدات البحرية ضد الملاحة الإسرائيلية.

وفي تقديرات إسرائيل، فإن هذه التهديدات تشمل مهاجمة سفن بواسطة طائرات مروحية وطائرات مسيرة وقوارب سريعة، وحتى صواريخ بعيدة المدى يتم إطلاقها من اليابسة.

ويلخص التقرير الإسرائيلي تقديرات أجهزة الأمن بأنه إذا قررت إيران تصعيد الوضع في الخليج، فإنها ستفعل ذلك بواسطة مبعوثيها، أي الميليشيات المدعومة منها، مثل الحوثيين في اليمن أو حزب الله في لبنان. وهذه التنظيمات لديها وسائل متقدمة يمكنها المس بالسفن الإسرائيلية في مدى يصل إلى 300 كيلومتر، بحسب تقديرات أجهزة الأمن الإسرائيلية.

المزيد عن: إسرائيل/التوتر في الخليج/إيران/الولايات المتحدة/مضيق هرمز

اقرأ المزيد:

إيران تبحث عن صدام عسكري محدود مع أميركا… في الحدود بين سوريا والعراق

 

 

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